Ironpigs-Bisons AAA Tourney (Final 10 Games)

[bkox]

The personal leave makes a fan skeptical of his drive,

And it shouldnt. Mental health has become more of a mainstream issue in this day and age. Lets face it.. back in the day the way guys handled their stress and mental health was often times from alcohol. Haseley needing a mental break shouldnt be a question about his drive or his personality. We have no idea how many players washed out in the minors that maybe could have just used a small break to get their head on straight.

[zambonir]

No question at all about his drive or personality, but I've always thought a truly well-balanced person may simply not be cut out for pro sports. The insane will to win, and to care about nothing else year-round, is basically dysfunctional, and yes, also leads to substance abuse, as well as performance-enhancing drugs and other cheating scandals.

Unfortunately, all the support and understanding in the world still won't allow him to earn his job back. Is he out of options?

And are we gonna see Seranthony? Not saying it's a great idea, but almost have to, right?

[mdougherty12]

If Fangraphs info is accurate, Haseley still has 2 options remaining after 2021.

Adonis Medina, on the other hand, is out of options. I don't know that he'll be able to keep his 40-man spot this off-season.

[zambonir]

I guess Haseley has never actually been sent down before this year, just IL trips.

I think Medina might survive the off-season but then he'll have to make the team.

[andyb]

I am sure they had already decided to protect Crouse this winter and that was part of the reason they put him on the 40-man roster. No idea how crowded the roster is yet. I suspect there is no reason to drop Medina now because we will not get that close to 40 around the rule 5 draft. I will be curious to see what we do with Jhailyn Ortiz and Luis Garcia (who both might be eligible), but we do not have lots of "must adds" to the list at the moment.

Hopefully somebody else has done that rule 5 eligibility list somewhere. I always get confused on the Latin American prospects and when they signed their first contract. Good news is lots of our top 10 are not yet eligible (Abel, Painter, Stott, etc.).

[Austinfan]

Medina will get a 40 man spot.
Ortiz, not so sure, he's looking more and more like Cozens, with an AA ceiling.
With the young OFs coming up behind him, he might have one year left at best in the organization.

[andyb]

Ortiz, not so sure, he's looking more and more like Cozens, with an AA ceiling.

How can you even begin to say he has a AA ceiling when he barely played that level and was not awful in that limited time? The proper decision frame is whether his tools are major league worthy and some of them clearly are. It looks like he can be an average defensive RF and the 70 power is legit. The question around him is whether he would stick on a major league roster at this time. The answer to that is likely no, though I still think there is a decent chance he gets protected because of the major league tools. The Phillies would not have included him in that late season CBP BP session if that were not true.

[andyb]

Standings after the first week (1-4). Worcester (3-2) up next week. We are tied for 7th in the home run tracker contest, but Indy looks to be difficult to catch. Maybe we should activate Jhailyn Ortiz for that.

MiLB Playoffs

[Austinfan]

While he's become a little more patient at the plate, his K rate remains around 30%.
And he's not going to be that 30 HR, 100+ BB guy who can get by with a low BA.
All the power in the world is for naught if you can't make consistent contact.
He's 22 with almost 1300 PA and had just made it to AA ball.

[andyb]

More like 28% in Jersey Shore. If this were Moniak you'd be talking about all the progress he had shown. I am not saying Ortiz is a great prospect any more. But the power is real and he is still only 22 years old and you are dismissing him far too early. You say he has a AA ceiling when he only got there for a couple of weeks and got hurt. You are just pretty selective in your likes and dislikes.

[Austinfan]

Moniak has made much better progress,
Clearwater BB 4.7%, K 21.5%, ISO .113
Reading BB 6.6%, K 22.0%, ISO .187
Lehigh BB 8.0%, K 25.7%, ISO .206

[phillychuck]

Not progress in K-rate, but in BB% and ISO, yes. What are Ortiz' equivalent numbers?

[Austinfan]

Ortiz
Lakewood BB 7.7%, K 32.6%, ISO .150
Clearwater BB 7.5%, K 31.2%, ISO .181
Jersey BB 9.9%, K 29.5%, ISO .259 / Reading BB 10.5%, K 31.4%, ISO .169

[phillychuck]

So, excluding the small sample Reading stats for Ortiz, they've both improved as they've moved up...I'll take that, for now.

[andyb]

The Ortiz Jersey Shore K % this year is actually 28.4%, not 29.5%.

The point here is not that Ortiz is a great prospect. It is the selective dismissal. He is still 22. He is improving. And he got hurt this year in the midst of his best performance. There are major league tools there and to dismiss him as a non-prospect is just way too early. I don't dismiss Moniak either. He is a better prospect that Ortiz (by only a small amount these days) even if his most likely outcome is as a 4th OF. Ortiz has a larger chance of failure, but also probably has a better chance of being a meaningful starter too since his power is very valuable.

I think the Phillies are probably seriously considering protecting him for the rule 5 draft, partly because the system is weak, but partly because they might also think he has turned a corner and could be ready in a year.

[Austinfan]

Remember, Jersey is basically repeating Clearwater.

I'm not writing Ortiz off quite yet, but he'll be 23 in Reading, if he needs two years there before forcing a promotion to Lehigh (i.e. doesn't tear it up next summer), he's probably no longer a real prospect.

The lost year has hurt a lot of prospects, but also has resulted in some surprises, like Vierling, who were able to physically mature and fix flaws under the radar.

[allentown]

but he'll be 23 in Reading

Not saying Ortiz will be plus, but 23 at Reading for a big guy isn't awful, especially after a minor league season lost to Covid. Ryan Howard was 24 at Reading. It's unclear why you believe Ortiz can't be a 30 HR guy -- he hit 23 this season in less than 400 AB -- the highest HR rate of his career

[bkox]

Rhys Hoskins spent his enter age 23 year in Reading

[Austinfan]

College player career trajectories are different than LA players.

Ortiz started in the GCL at 17, yes, he missed about 500 PA due to COVID, but he also was physically developed at a young age unlike many LA players who don't fill out until 20-21 years old. He has yet to break out at any level, his best season was SSS at Williamsport at 18.

The good news is he's a better athlete and OF than expected, the bad news is his struggles with contact have been consistent at three levels.

[andyb]

Like all prospects has been mentioned, Ortiz has been hurt by the pandemic. He needed playing time and not physical maturity, so there is a good case he would have had his high A breakthrough last year at age 21 and then would have spent this year in Reading at 22 and next year would have been in AAA. We can't use the age/level stuff only when it is convenient.

Again, The only point here is that Ortiz is not a prospect to be dismissed now. Major league tools are important. Veirling has progressed in part because he has some decent tools. Maybe tools that are close to Moniak's in terms of speed and defense and power. Williams always had athletic tools too.

To say that Ortiz has "yet to break out at any level" is a laughable statement when we look at a prospect that just put up an 879 OPS in one of the most pitcher-friendly hitting environments in all of baseball. It was repeating a level so the breakout was a little less impressive than some, but it also would have been a 950 OPS in a neutral environment. At JS this year he had an 808 home OPS and a 955 road OPS.