General MLB Discussion, Winter 2023-24

[bkox]

The Atlanta Braves are acquiring infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels for first baseman Evan White and right-handed reliever Tyler Thomas, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) December 8, 2023

[zambonir]

Wonder how things really were between Stassi and the Angels.

[BostonRoss]

Seems strange for the Braves to acquire a catcher. I wonder if that means they are considering trading Travis D'Arnaud. He's making $8M.

[zambonir]

I think they just took him to take the money off Anaheim's hands and will either trade him or he's still not ready to come off the restricted list. He's also not very good. But it's possible he's good enough to be a back-up and D'Arnaud is better than that and could get them something (including salary space).

[BostonRoss]

Here's a story that says Stassi will be ready for 2024. Of course, given the source, we can't be sure the author is a human being...

https://www.si.com/mlb/angels/news/angels-gm-provides-update-on-max-stassis-status-for-2024-ml0802

[zambonir]

Looks like he can make it about the money while also signing with a consistently good team.

Shohei Ohtani's deal with the Dodgers is for 10 years and $700 million.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) December 9, 2023

Shohei Ohtani's contract has significant deferrals that include most of his salary -- an idea, a source said, that was Ohtani's. In deferring the money, it reduces the cost of the competitive-balance-tax hit and will allow the Dodgers to build a better team around him.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) December 9, 2023

[bkox]

and

The $700 million Shohei Ohtani will receive from the Los Angeles Dodgers is the largest guarantee in sports history.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) December 9, 2023

[el-pietro]

I knew he'd sign a massive deal but this is beyond anything I'd ever considered. I really had hoped he'd stay in the AL.

700m is the largest deal ever given out. My guess it's its essentially twice any deal prior in total guarantees. What was the largest AAV before this because I'm pretty sure no one has gotten 70 before.

[zambonir]

The question is what will the actual CBT AAV be once you factor in the full structure of the deal.

This is something that is easy for Ohtani to do because he'll make so much money in non-MLB income, both in Japan and here. And probably easy for LA to do with the money they will also make from him (and him already being in Southern Cal and them sticking it to Anaheim probably doesn't hurt either).

The only surprising part is that amount would seem to depend on him pitching, and pitching well, for a very long time, and that hardly seems guaranteed (whether due to performance or health).

Bryce's deal was actually the largest (total) in MLB history at the time he signed it. Not since. Highest AAV must be one of the short-term pitchers at 40 or so?

[el-pietro]

I think you sre 100% right. Passan and others are tweeting that a significant portion of this deal with be in deferrals.
I'm glad the Phillies aren't paying him this deal because there's no way he lives up to this by any measure of WAR per dollar even if its not my money, but I also expect this to be brilliant move by the Dodgers

[zambonir]

I'm glad the Phillies aren't paying him this deal because there's no way he lives up to this by any measure of WAR per dollar even if its not my money, but I also expect this to be brilliant move by the Dodgers

We might, however, wish that the Phillies could have signed Ohtani with the money they are paying Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker.

Or wish he was staying in the AL like you said.

I wonder how many days Boras will wait to talk about Bryce's possible extension again.

[zambonir]

Maybe he can help pay for the tram.

[allentown]

If this is true, then it is a very sorry day for MLB and shows the phoniness of the commissioner's claim to be promoting more competitive balance. If this goes through, then MLB should eliminate the luxury cap and tax, or at the bare minimum, remove all of the nonmonetary penalties for exceed the cap. Since I'm thrilled for Middleton and the other owners to spend part of their fortunes on bringing another championship to Philly, I'd be happy for Harper get an extension and another boat filled with $, if all of that and most of the $ he is still owed are deferred and not counted as part of salary cap so that the Phillies can sign another star to help Harper win the championship ring he covets.

What a farce!

[zambonir]

The only thing that's been stopping teams from doing these kind of deferrals is the players and agents don't want them. They've already been happening just never on this scale or for this big a player. Absolutely Harper should consider doing it

[el-pietro]

On a dollar per year companion he may be comparible to Trea and Taijuan but ultimately Shohei the DH/OF isn't worth this deal alone.

Does anyone believe he's gonna be a top lone starter in 5 years? 7? 10?

Hes a unicorn but there's incredible risk associated with him as a result.

[el-pietro]

He turns 30 in July. He will only ever pitch for the Dodgers in his 30s

I was sure teams were richer than they would have us believe. This deal surely changes everything we knew about baseball economics

[BostonRoss]

Ohtani is actually below the average age of the Dodgers starting hitters. Only Outman and Will Smith are younger, and the only ones who will be under 30 all year.

And the Dodgers pitching, which wasn't great in 2023, is worse without Kershaw and Urias. Bobby Miller is young and pretty good but has only 22 ML games under his belt. The other projected starters are unproven or coming back from injuries. I guess they could spend even more money on starting pitching, but the Ohtani signing doesn't make them overwhelming favorites.

[zambonir]

Well, the Dodgers might find it's more fun to not be overwhelming favorites.

[bkox]

so how does deferred money work? If they defer it over 30 years and he becomes their Bobby Bonillia, does it only count as like 17.5M a year toward the luxury cap?

[zambonir]

It is going to be interesting to find out, though perhaps the basics (paging julio) are already in the CBA?

One example that comes to mind is Strasburg. He signed a deal for 7 years//$245,000,000, which would be a $35M base annual salary, but $80M of that was (and is deferred to 2027, 2028 and 2029). But I am not seeing where the Nats got a lower AAV/tax hit out of that, just the ability to save themselves cash (i.e. they were paying him just $23M but he still counted 35 against the tax). That deal would have been under the old CBA of course.