General MLB Discussion, Winter 2023-24

[bkeich]

I assume that once again we will eventually add a few “high velocity relievers with good pasts that we hope they can duplicate on 1 year deals”. That seems to be Dombrowski’s current method for a bullpen. Last years bullpen was overall a success, including Kimbrel, it just went south at the end.

Our minor leagues provide very little help to our ML team, but the one thing we seem to always have is a surprise reliever go from A+ to the Majors in a season. Hopefully we get another of those.

I am more concerned that we need a bench. We were actually very lucky last year having fewer injuries than average, but that gets less likely as our stars get to be 30+. We lack the depth to even hope for players to “hold down the fort”. Backups at pretty much every position are huge drop offs from the starters (OF is the exception and of course we have 4 1B /DH options).

[zambonir]

I think we'll still see a fairly recognizable name bench OF signing. Supply exceeds demand, it just depends which shelf you shop on.

I wouldn't say OF is an exception at all though. Pache only offers defense, Cave isn't very good, and Rojas probably isn't on the roster unless he's the starter.

Sosa is still a good bench player who is just somewhat miscast (he's better at the two defensive positions he never plays and bats from the same side as Bohm as well as Turner). Catcher could obviously be better. If they actually do keep Pache than the fourth spot has to be a hitter. The only question is whether a "name" pick-up will actually be better than a Cave, Weston Wilson, Kody Clemens etc. Last year, he was not.

[fish]

Good shivers or bad shivers?

I want a closer that doesn't resemble any of those other three, I'd rather bet on Hoffman or something than try again with another past-their-prime water-logged arm.

[bkox]

BREAKING: Outfielder Teoscar Hernández and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on a one-year, $23.5 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Hernández joins Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow on the new-look Dodgers, who add another All-Star bat to the lineup.

Of the $23.5 million in Teoscar Hernández's deal with the Dodgers, $8.5 million will be deferred, to be paid out from 2030 to 2039, sources tell ESPN. The corner-outfield market is tough, and Hernández opted for a big one-year deal with the best team over other multiyear offers.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 8, 2024

[zambonir]

Seems like crazy money but of course it's not given it's just for one year and with the deferral. Seems like a strategy the Phillies could pursue except there's still not really anyone that attractive/a great fit IMO. This should set Soler's market but Phillies don't need him. Everyone else is on a lower tier (except Bellinger of course).

[bkox]

The Miami Marlins are hiring Rachel Balkovec as their farm director, sources tell ESPN. She comes from the New York Yankees, where she spent the last two years as a manager in the minor leagues, the first female to do so.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 9, 2024

[Philsmania]

The Athletic examines why it has been such a cool hot stove this winter.

McCullough’s Mailbag: RSNs to blame for slow winter? Dodgers using six-man...

The culprits:
1. The RSN situation which have left teams with questionable or no TV revenue looking ahead.
2. A relatively weak free agent class.
3. Ohtani and Yamamoto tying up interested clubs.
4. The Boras factor--he represents most of the rest of the free agent class (Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery and Snell) and he takes his sweet time until his guys get what he feels are satisfactory money.
5. Player contract inflation creating sticker shock and owners slow to accept the reality of it.

[andyb]

I guess the RSN situation makes a little sense, but also I think I would go to the reality that the rich teams have realized the penalties for exceeding the competitive balance thresholds are not that great (and they still might be profitable). Pair that with Boras slow walking his clients and you have today's situation.

I continue to believe baseball would be better off with some sort of deadline in mid-December and then a dead period for signings until February. They could make free agency a big thing around the winter meetings again. Players would also have some certainty before the holidays.

[zambonir]

Just not sure why it matters. If Cody Bellinger or Josh Hader wanted to know where their next job was and how much they are going to make before the holidays they could have taken an offer. If teams couldn't sign anyone from December 15-January 15 all the Boras clients would probably sign after that anyway. The Ohtani-Yamamoto stuff was enough content for a month, as good as any NBA July. If anything the guy who made it really boring was Nola but signing so early and easily instead of dragging out a competition to sign him.

I do think that the longer the market is slow the more likely the Phillies sneak in and get a higher caliber player than expected. I mean, they've publicly said as much, particularly with a reliever.

[andyb]

I think you are underestimating the media coverage MLB could get if they had most free agent activity confined to a short period. Does it matter in terms of wins and losses? Of course not. But the drip, drip, drip over 4 months is just not promoting the sport very well.

[zambonir]

I just don't see where the media coverage is lacking. Trying to goose that is like the efforts to goose the draft. Sure, why not, but it doesn't seem to do much. At the end of the day the hot stove overlaps with peak football season and will not dominate Sportscenter (or sports Tik Tok or whatever) but Ohtani and Yamamoto still did just fine.

Meanwhile the NFL draft and the NBA hot stove can knock baseball off the (metaphorical) front page because those sports are just more popular, and have more famous athletes, and it's still early in baseball season when those things happen.

I feel like NFL free agency and trade season doesn't get much attention either, other than a few quarterbacks. I think it comes back to the the structures of the sports, the salary caps in the NBA and the NHL and byzantine contract rules in the NFL superimpose a certain amount of drama and deadlines. But most of all, it's the trading of draft picks, and the fact that those sports can have their draft at the same time as the hot stove, that does it.

[andyb]

Shoto Imanaga with a surprisingly small deal with the Cubs. 2/30 with lots of options and escalators but I wonder if this is the new strategy to get around large posting fees (smaller contract guarantees with options that serve as de facto guarantees for the player). I had wondered a little bit if the Phillies were interested here as the Yamamoto interest might have been a general nod towards being future players in the Japanese market.

Cubs, Shota Imanaga Agree To Deal

[zambonir]

Well, Jim Bowden is with you Andy.

That would be a really short period though. Four weeks overall but only three weeks from the QO and tender dates. And February 1 would be crazy-close to spring training. 12/15-1/15 wouldn't hurt anything, though I'm not sure it would change anything either (and none of this would have applied to the posted foreign players presumably).

How likely do you think it is that MLB makes changes to the way the offseason is structured so that free agency isn’t boring and doesn’t stretch on for four months? Every offseason feels like a buzzkill. — Jared H.

I have been a strong proponent of having a free-agent and trade deadline at midnight on the Wednesday of the Winter Meetings (Dec. 6 last month), with a subsequent freeze of rosters until Feb. 1. However, the MLB Players Association and the majority of clubs do not support this concept, so I don’t see it changing anytime soon. However, as an MLB talk show host, writer, analyst and insider, I will say it makes December and January more entertaining than it would be under those rules because, although there are inevitable slow periods, a transaction can happen on any day or at any hour, which is exciting.

Bowden's MLB offseason mailbag: What I'm hearing about free agents, teams and...

[andyb]

Maybe not a total freeze of rosters, but one could do something like limit multi-year free agent deals after 12/15. Get the big deals out of the way before Christmas and then the small stuff will fall into place.

[flyers19rw]

Shohei Ohtani could avoid paying tens of millions in California taxes. Not so...

This could get interesting

[zambonir]

Plenty of unpaywalled stories (I actually have subscribed to LAT but not currently).

Seriously doubt Congress would prioritize this (can Congress pass any non-essential legislation at all between now and 2025? No reason to think the current majority party in the House would support it at all).

Ohtani contract: State controller calls for congressional intervention on Dodger...

[bkox]

Full trade: The Chicago Cubs are acquiring third baseman Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for a pair of toolsy teenaged prospects, left-handed starter Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope, sources tell ESPN.

This trade between the Cubs and Dodgers, which my man @juanctoribiowas on top of, is fascinating.

Michael Busch has been excellent the last three years in the upper minor leagues and has a big left-handed power stroke. The hope is that at 26 he can be a Max Muncy type: hit home runs, draw walks, play reasonable defense at third. He should slot right into their Opening Day lineup.

Yency Almonte was signed for nothing as a minor league free agent, and the Dodgers helped him turn into a solid big league reliever. They've done that with others, too, and the belief internally is they can do the same with talented arms going forward.

Jackson Ferris is a big get for Los Angeles, and it pained the Cubs to move him. He's a dream toolkit: 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, left-handed, fastball in sitting mid-90s, change and curve as well. He's got a good chance to be the best player in the deal.

Zyhir Hope signed a well-over-slot bonus as an 11th-round pick last year and impressed evaluators in a short Arizona Rookie League stint. He's a long ways off, but the Dodgers have excelled more than any team at taking raw talent and molding it into something big league-worthy.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 11, 2024

[Philsmania]

And, for the record, the Dodgers now have a guy named Ferris and a guy named Buehler.

[zambonir]

Yankees close to an agreement with Marcus Stroman: Sources

[bkox]

Star outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a one-year, $31M contract, sources tell ESPN. Soto sets a new record for an arbitration-eligible player, beating Shohei Ohtani's $30M last year. Soto will be a free agent after '24. @Joelsherman1 was on it.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) January 12, 2024