GDT 9/9/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) @ New York Mets (deGrom)

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies go in order in the top of the 8th: K, K, Ground out, 3-1.

Garcia coming in to pitch for the Phillies in the bottom of the 8th.

[EastFallowfield]

Mets have best record in NL east from July 2nd until now.

[EastFallowfield]

Garcia blows a grounder to get out of the 8th without a run. But somehow we get a scoreless inning vs the mighty Mets as they strand two.

[LoneStarPhan]

Garcia faces five hitters. Mets get runners on a single and an error on Garcia, leaving the two stranded.

[EastFallowfield]

Santana homers with two out and none on.

[LoneStarPhan]

First two up in the ninth had struck out prior to Santana's homer.

Kingery forces 3 pitches to strike out to end the game.

Another miserable loss and another series loss.

[Philsmania]

Another series, another loss.

[ButlerBulldog]

I’m beginning to wonder if the Phillies wouldn’t be better off firing Kapler and starting fresh with a new manager in 2019. He’s made so many bad decisions that I don’t think we can just write them off as mistakes of a first-year manager. The Phillies should not be losing series after series to teams like the Mets, Marlins and Nationals, and they should not be making the same fundamental errors game after game. Someone has to be held accountable for all of this.

[allentown]

The good things about Kapler are that he seems to get along well with the players and that he got more out of this team than anybody predicted for the first 60% of the season. That is a positive accomplishment. The wheels have now come off and the season probably is effectively lost, but compared to reasonable expectations this has been a good year. I don't know how much decision-making autonomy Kapler has and some of the decisions made in-game and in setting the lineups seem strange, but I can't help thinking he has great potential as a manager. I'd give him another season. The organization needs to figure out the place of the analytical folks and assess which analytics have worked and which haven't. They need to sort out who is in charge of what in this organization and what the final plan is --- a plan they have enough confidence in to commit to for the next half dozen years at least across the whole organization. I am not at all willing to pin the recent woes on Kapler. I remember that Francona was a different sort of bird from most (all?) prior Phillies managers. He went on to manage some very successful teams after we fired him. Somehow he wasn't the problem he was perceived to be.

[ButlerBulldog]

I remember that Francona was a different sort of bird from most (all?) prior Phillies managers. He went on to manage some very successful teams after we fired him. Somehow he wasn't the problem he was perceived to be.

I never thought he was a problem at all. Rather, I thought his teams weren’t very good and that the Phillies didn’t give him much to work with.

While I think this team’s roster needs improvement, I’m baffled by its seeming inability to make routine plays, hold leads and beat the teams it should beat. Eflin and Velasquez wet the bed every time out, and no one in the bullpen has a defined role, something that Kapler doesn’t think is necessary in order to win.

If he’s back next season, he needs to spend the winter figuring out which data are the most important for decisionmaking. What I see him doing reminds of me medical students presenting every detail about their patients because they don’t know what they need to focus on. Kapler would do well to heed the advice of the front office if that’s where most of his direction is coming from, but he also needs to let his players play and micromanage them. I’m convinced part Herrera’s struggles are the result of Kapler constantly messing with him, as he never played this poorly in years past.

[Philsmania]

As I've said before, I believe that Francona was miscast as a manager in Philadelphia by being handed the reigns of a young developing team. Sometimes, younger players need a little more structure, discipline and leadership from their coaches/managers. Francona let a lot of bad things fester with his players and when things began to crater early in 2000, had them feeling sorry for themselves. There was little accountability in the clubhouse. And, while you got the sense the players liked Francona, they didn't really respect him, especially after his sunny pronouncements rang increasingly hollow. Bowa came in and brought in a sense of accountability. Granted, Bowa's effectiveness had a short shelf life--probably only a season, in hindsight--but it's undeniable that Bowa changed the team's trajectory. Francona, meanwhile, went on to manage teams filled with smart veterans--players who were entitled to a greater sense of collegiality and consensus and less hands-on leadership from their manager--in Boston and Cleveland where he was probably more ideally suited and became a Hall of Fame manager. On a similar note, I am not so sure that Kapler is ultimately the right fit here in Philadelphia.

[ButlerBulldog]

On a similar note, I am not so sure that Kapler is ultimately the right fit here in Philadelphia.

I’m beginning to feel this way, as well. Kapler’s obviously highly intelligent and knows a great deal about the game due to having played and coached it. Moreover, the players like him and seem to enjoy playing for him. However, I don’t think he’s getting the most out of them, not necessarily because I think he’s being too nice to them, but because he’s not letting them play the game the way they’ve learned it.

Do I think Kapler’s the only one at fault? Absolutely not. More than likely, some of his decisions are being influenced by direction from Klentak, whose offseason moves have, in some cases, actually hurt the club more than they’ve helped it. For example, why is Hoskins in left field when he’s played first base almost exclusively since he was five? I know, of course, that Santana and Bour must play first base to share the lineup with Rhys, but why was Santana signed in the first place when Hoskins can play the position as well as Howard ever did, if not better? If the Phillies needed an outfielder, they should have signed or traded for one. Instead, they’ve reincarnated Pat Burrell.

However, several of Kapler’s own moves have me scratching my head. Why is there no set closer for this team? Neris has allowed exactly one run since returning from LHV. He has a dominant out pitch and is more experienced than Dominguez. Why not use him exclusively in save situations?

Assuming the Phillies can make a splash in free-agency, I hope that an influx of talent causes Kapler to take a step back. Machado and Harper are established big league players who don’t need to be messed with. If Kapler (and Klentak) can leave them alone, they can do the same in other areas.

[philsphan67]

I think with any profession there is a learning curve. Francona's Phillies teams were not that good, he takes the blame and he did make some mistakes. To his credit, he evolved and is now considered a great manager. Was always level headed and said the right thing with the Phillies players and I liked him. I do get with bad teams how the manager takes the fall.

Kapler has learned, look at his bullpen use from the opening series alone. I do wonder if the Phillies fundamental woes are attributed in part to Kapler being great about never throwing a player under the bus, but not motivating them enough to work on the little things. I do think he'll evolve and improve in year two. However, I am interested to see Klentak's approach to the team. This team is lucky they play in CBP (maybe part of his thinking) b/c their defense is awful. They have no great defenders and it does make for some ugly baseball.

[allentown]

Kapler is not the one who added the not-great defenders to the team. That was Klentak.

I disagree with ButlerBulldog that Kapler hasn't gotten the most out of his players. We all made win projections for this team at the start of the season. I think the team will end up meeting or exceeding most of our projections. Some guys are doing less well than we expected, Altherr being a prime case, but on the whole, this team has out-performed expectations. I can't ask for more than that.

I do have questions about some of the conclusions from our stat department and Klentak's implementation of them. A strong case can be made that defense is now less important than it was a couple of decades ago, but the difference is about 20%, which is a long way from the Phillies conclusion that defense and player position don't matter. I think there is enough data to say our stats guys' defensive positioning model needs improvement.

Yes, the team lacks some fundamental skills. They are called fundamental skills for a reason. You learned them before you came to MLB. It is hard to learn them on the fly as a major leaguer and Kapler has less than a year on the job, so I'm not going to point a finger at him for the players' inadequate fundamental skills.

Yes, I think the team has done too much changing the way hitters hit, compared to how they've hit all their lives. That problem seemed more evident in the minor leagues, with the treatment of Moniak and Randolph. You can probably add Kingery and Crawford to that list. Hard to see how Kapler and his coaches are to blame for this. The organization as a whole is preaching launch angle and Kapler and his coaches have no choice but to support that. I have no doubt that launch angle is a big deal for many hitters, but doubt it is the right approach for the high-contact, low-raw-power guys. Square peg -round hole -- historically the Phillies have had a lot of that problem.

I agree with the approach of not having a set closer. Neris can pitch in any important inning. The other team has men on base in the 7th or 8th inning of a close game, makes that inning a very important inning. It is a much tougher assignment than starting the 9th inning with nobody on base and a 2-run lead. I think within a decade, the concept of a set closer, which I see largely as a thing to give some pitchers a much larger contract, will be largely a thing of the past.
a manager's job. Saying dumb things to the press may make him look like a fool, but it won't change the team's W-L record. Think back on how Andy Reid responded to press questions -- always take the blame, say as little as possible, don't throw the players under the bus, even if you look like an idiot -- as your team wins more games you'll look like a genius and the media will have to be a lot nicer to you.
I think that the personal interactions and communications with the players is by far the most important part of

[Philsmania]

I've come around to thinking Klentak just isn't a very good GM. He's an egghead detached from reality.

[ButlerBulldog]

I've come around to thinking Klentak just isn't a very good GM. He's an egghead detached from reality.

I wouldn’t go that far. I think he’s too reliant on numbers, but I wouldn’t say he has no sense of reality. He’s tried to improve the club through trades, but the moves he’s made haven’t worked out.

[Jeff05]

Can we please ease back a little on the negativity? It's no fun losing, especially after hopes were raised in the first two thirds(?) of the season, and it only feels worse (at least to me) when posters resort to name calling.

[Austinfan]

The Phillies fundamental woes are being a young team that's not ready to compete, all three young starters have essentially melted down the last month (stress, arm fatigue, mental fatigue), even though the bullpen has righted itself and is now one of the deepest units in the ML.

Hernandez is coming around, I think it's obvious the foot injury really hurt, Herrera is a flake, Rhys is finally back on track.
Kingery, Crawford weren't ready for prime time, Quinn can't stay healthy, Alfaro is a work in progress, Franco got hurt, this team would be in a deeper hole without Cabrera and Ramos.

The only serious asset lost in all of Klentak's moves was Kilome, who was marginal for the 40 man roster, and letting some guys leave as DFAs in August rather than as claims in November (Thomson, Lively, Leiter - none would have been kept on the 40 man roster this fall).

I thought this team was a .500 team at best in the spring, 75 wins before they added Santana and Arrieta, so no real surprises, Franco played better than expected, Hernandez and Herrera worse, Williams better, Altherr much worse, Crawford and Kingery worse but both were question marks this year in any case.

What will solve the defense are young players with defensive skills hitting, if Crawford posts a .270./.350/.400/.750 slash line Cabrera isn't obtained, if Quinn stays healthy we have a top CF, if Altherr and Herrera hit corner OF is set, and so on. I don't think launch angle is the issue with young players struggling, rather a combination of factors with a new coaching philosophy, some which will just need adjustment time, some which will need changes in player personnel.

Rebuilds take time, how much time is a matter of scouting, coaching and luck - if a couple players emerge faster than expected it takes less time, if a few top prospects flame out it takes longer.

[zambonir]

I can barely stand to read this thread for obvious reasons but the story of the season is pretty simple: when Velasquez, Pivetta and Eflin looked like they belonged in a major league rotation on a consistent basis the team was in first place. When they stopped, the team stopped winning. Better offense might have picked them up and better defense might have arrested the free-fall but they didn't truly have those things on a consistent basis all year.

Funnily enough when we look back the bullpen will probably be the strongest part of the team. There have been blown leads and blown saves but every team has those.

The season is still a success. The GM's data people and the manager are all rookies. Next up, a lot of decisions about who should be worth keeping and who is still developing (and how long the team can wait for development with heightend payroll/expectations).

[julio]

I have to add that calling Klentak an "egghead" suggests an anti-intellectual bias. This is very (read: too) common in the United States of America, and one of the things that contributes to our chronic inability to address serious problems before they become crises, our relatively poor performance in educating our children, our skepticism (or often hostility) toward those who actually have expert knowledge, etc.