GDT 9/3/25 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, A) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Quintana)

[zambonir]

Hard to imagine him being more than the 4th starter right now. If we get to that point we'll be in the NLCS and I'll take it. Walker has just as good a chance at a role. The only problem is both of them seem prone to big innings and then settling into okay starts, and that won't play in October. If they need a RHP in the NLDS it will definitely be more of a de facto bullpen game.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Nola is still rusty - like his pitching through spring training again. Unfortunately, there are only 30 days until the MLB Division Series (less if the Phillies drop down and have to play in the Wildcard).

[andyb]

Only caught the replay but it looked like Nola had a pretty good curve but was really missing by like 6 inches on his fastballs and sinkers. He can still pitch at 91-92 with his curve, but he really has to dot the strike zone like he did in his prime if he is going to be effective.

Right now he is not in the top 3 starters for the postseason. The 4th starter slot would be Nola versus a Walker who is getting hit hard of late and Buehler who has had a bad year too. The logic of using Luzardo out of the bullpen is still there, but it must be a move made out of strength (i.e. Nola seizing a top 3 spot and one of the others being not awful). Right now I go Sanchez, Suarez, Luzardo in that order for the top 3.

[zambonir]

So what was he in April and May?

The question is can they go with three LHPs in NLDS. Depends on the opponent and the series score as well I reckon. Could also end up being a tandem or opener type deal.

[Austinfan]

The three LH are heads and shoulders above Nola and Walker.
Nola has his velocity back but has completely lost his command, and when you throw 91-93, you must have plus command. And he needs a good changeup/two seamer as well as a knuckle curve to handle LH hitters.

I might just go with a bullpen game in the playoffs and not dress Nola or Walker. They're that bad lately.

[VoteForKalas]

Since Nola's return, he has had 1 middling start, 1 very good start and this really bad start.

In other words, he is searching for equilibrium post-injury and time away from pitching every five days. IMO, this is as expected for any pitcher, but especially for Nola who, as andyb noted, depends quite a bit on his command and location instead of velocity.

We'll have to see how his next couple starts go, but it would be much better for the team if he can round back into form this month and be ready for the playoffs as a starter.

I would have Sanchez as the #1, with Nola #2 and Luzardo #3. Suarez fits better in the pen since he has performed well there before and can handle the pressure.

However, again the rest of the team needs to be do their jobs i.e. the offense and pen as well. The rotation has been our strength all season which led us to fortifying the pen and lineup at the deadline. Now with Wheeler down and Nola & Walker struggling, we have rotation questions too unfortunately.

[zambonir]

Suarez is still too good to pitch out of the pen. And the idea that he has done it before is anitiquated. He hasn't been a reliever since August of 2021 and only pitched out of the pen twice since then, both in 2022. Never in the last two seasons.

Of course I hope Nola makes it a hard decision but he was the 5th-best starter before he went on the IL and he's not one of the three best now.

With Wheeler out they just don't have the luxury. And even when they did, Luzardo was going to be the choice for the pen because he was the most erratic starter. Had Ranger continued to be the most erratic starter it would have been him.

The other thing is if you start Ranger in Game 2 he actually would be available out of the pen in Game 5. That's something you could ask him to do again. Not so if you start Nola, and also probably not so of Luzardo.

If you'd told me how many months Wheeler and Nola were going to be out this year on March 15 I certainly wouldn't have expected 90-95 wins.

[andyb]

I like Ranger in the number 2 slot at the moment. While a left-handed 1-2-3 is not ideal, slotting Ranger in the middle of the 2 hard throwers (Sanchez and Luzardo) would be a nice contrast. Just because Ranger can relieve does not mean he should relieve. And if Nola improves Luzardo's stuff in a 1-inning stint could be very compelling. Strahm and Banks are both suited more to middle inning work than late inning work. I think we still want Nola to win a starting slot though the chances of that are not great at the moment. If we have 3 lefties let's at least separate the hard throwers and go with a bullpen game in the 4th slot.

[zambonir]

In 2022 Bailey Falter got the Game 4 NLCS start, gave up four runs in 0.2 innings, and they still won 10-6. Thor also started Game 4 of the NLDS (a win) and Game 5 of the WS (a loss) as a de facto bullpen game. Don't necessarily want to repeat those experiences, but you could do a lot worse than to have Nola or Walker in the mix with that approach. Maybe it happens in a Game 2 or 3 instead of 4 depending how things line-up. But, gotta get to the NLCS first to even seriously have the conversation.

I'd say it's also no accident they picked up Mayza, who was less a dumpster-dive as a product of the current trend where teams just cut guys loose to not pay them in September (he didn't make much money, but it's the Pirates). He didn't get any high-leverage spots but he did pitch for the Yankees in the post-season last year (all three rounds) and is a bit more than just an interchangeable 8th reliever. Clearly they see him as shoring up the LHP bullpen depth without Alvarado, and with no starter available to do that.

[Austinfan]

I'm not sure Luzardo's stuff translates to the bullpen, he has a very hittable 4 seamer even at 97-98, like Sanchez, it's the slider/changeup combo that's the key to his success. His slider is his best pitch, so FB/slider might work, but I don't see him as a late inning guy. The real issue is he's never developed a 2 seamer to use against RH.

Sanchez has a 2 seamer instead of a 4 seamer, but it's also an average pitch, his top pitch is a killer changeup.

[Philsmania]

Jose Quintana has had an interesting career. Some very good seasons with the White Sox from 2012-16/age 23-27 followed by a lag from 2017-20/age 28-32 but then good again from 2021-present/age 33-36.

[zambonir]

He's nothing special this year overall but seems like he is at his best against the Phillies lately. Mets were 4-0 against us in his starts last year. He's 2-0 this year.

And he was the starter in the 2022 NLDS Game 1. Pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings.

The path to the Phillies losing in the NLDS again is pretty clearly going to be a combination of our hitters struggling against LHP and the other teams hitting our LHP (Mets, Brewers and Cubs are three best teams in the NL at doing so). If they win it will be some combination of Harp and Schwarbs coming through and the RHBs doing well.

[andyb]

Luzardo's stuff totally translates into the bullpen. It is not really a very hittable fastball. It has pretty good movement on it and he could be sitting 99-100 in short relief. Not sure what game you are watching. Yes his command can waver, but that is more with men on than starting. I would not want him coming in with men on base. That is not his forte. But his high velocity stuff with a simpler arsenal (more sweeper than slider these days) is a great fit for the postseason. The more velocity Luzardo has in short relief should only make his offspeed stuff more effective.

That being said, right now he is number 3 in the rotation and should stay there until somebody is better. 6 innings out of a starter is more important than 3 innings as a reliever in a short series.

[zambonir]

6 innings out of a starter is more important than 3 innings as a reliever in a short series.

Heh, so is four innings!

[VoteForKalas]

Luzardo's biggest issue is with men on base and pitching out of the stretch. How it that going to work well in the pen?

I disagree having him in the pen is a good idea.

[zambonir]

He's never going to enter a game with men on base, and he has plenty of clean innings (and strikeout stuff). If the issues he's had this year persist, we're screwed either way.

But it's moot, because neither Luzardo nor Suarez should be in the bullpen. The truth is the Phillies have done just fine with Alvarado, largely due to Banks stepping up, and also by adding Duran. Alvarado has contributed little since returning.

Mayza would be a bonus in the Soto 2023 or Alvarado 2024 slot, only used if necessary. Robertson and Kerkering are the two guys I'd worry about.

It is largely semantics, my guess is we see both Nola and Luzardo pitch in the same game in the NLDS. Whether that is Game 2 or Game 3, and which one of them opens, will depend on the opponent and home ballpark (and if it is Game 3 it will also depend on the series score). But Ranger starts the other game. I won't say a "traditional" start because he certainly didn't make that in the 2023 NLDS.

It's a tricky proposition really. The strength of this team is starters who can go 6-7, but that's not a strength anymore with one guy down and another diminished (plus the two others who had their own durability or consistency questions). It is probably going to be quick hooks and heavy bullpen usage to win in October, at least in the first series. But that is still a strength, especially with the extra starters included in the mix.

[VoteForKalas]

So, Luzardo will only start an inning (which eliminates at least half of all relief scenarios) and then as soon as he allows a base runner, Topper will pull him?

Obviously, none of us want Luzardo or Suarez in the pen, but someone needs to be there unless you leave them off the playoff roster entirely or they pitch only in that 4th starter or pen game in a 7 game series.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Rusty or perhaps he's just not a good pitcher anymore. Whatever the reason, he can't be counted on now.

[andyb]

Luzardo's biggest issue is with men on base and pitching out of the stretch. How it that going to work well in the pen?

As Z said, why is it any different if he is not going to come in during the middle of an inning.

I just look at his stuff and it is livelier in short stints. He has also done it before when he first came up. RIght now moving him is not the preferred option. Clearly they got Mayza thinking he could be that extra LHP in the bullpen. Maybe that move was made when it became less certain Nola would start in the postseason (as the Buehler move indicates also).

But all options are on the table. The playoffs are different than the regular season. Which pitchers can do both starting and relief roles (or some of both) are important.

[andyb]

So, Luzardo will only start an inning (which eliminates at least half of all relief scenarios) and then as soon as he allows a base runner, Topper will pull him?

That is just wrong. First, only about 30% of relief outings are in the middle of an inning. And we actually have both Kerkering and Banks who are pretty good at coming in during those situations. Are we limiting Duran because he only starts innings?

And the whole comment about pulling him is also silly. Would you pull him as a starter in the first or second inning with a runner on? You are just creating hypotheticals that don't exist in real life. Using a reliever in situations that emphasizes their strengths and diminish their weaknesses is managing. Do we pull Marsh in the 5th inning after a left-hander comes in? Probably not.

Our bullpen really does not throw that hard beyond Duran and Kerkering when you remove Alvarado. A hard throwing left hander adds something different. Luzardo could fit that role if it were needed.