GDT 9/27/20 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Fleming)

[LoneStarPhan]

Almost a fitting end to the 2020 Phillies season.

Bring on the hot stove.

[andyb]

We clearly did not deserve to make the playoffs, even if we could have backed in today. At least Nick Pivetta is going to get a win today.

[EDmuch]

To borrow from TS Elliot, "This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper".

Bye, bye McFail, bye bye Matty. The big question is who negotiates with Realmuto's agent in the absence of a President of Baseball Operations and a GM.

[zambonir]

They can't wait that long. They've got close to five weeks for MacPhail to hire a new GM

(But seriously, if they are going to clean house there's no reason Middleton can't get the hire made, even if some of the candidates are in the playoffs. Chaim Bloom was hired to run the Red Sox last year on October 28, ahead of non-tenders/QOs as well as free agency.)

Of course Middleton can just hold his checkbook up to the Zoom camera and close the deal just like he did on Harper and Arrieta. But JT might want to know who he'll be working for first.

[Lucky_Beagle]

So a team trying to get into the playoff couldn't win a single game started by Nola and Wheeler the last 3 times they pitched (I think). Some of those may have been on the pen, but neither went out there and shut down an opponent for 7 or 8 innings either.

[bkeich]

If this was a real season this would have been an epic collapse. Not even sure many people will notice.

You have to think Harper is seriously reconsidering his decision to join this disaster. Playoffs in 2027? Later?

We have a completely barren farm system and a declining team that was never much to begin with, and we are up against the salary cap.

I can tell you who our likely 3B and RF are next season. The other 6 positions are up in the air with no one that you really can be excited about.

This was the season that this team was suppose to break through, but there wasn’t a real season and now we are starting the decline

You can’t call what we see next a rebuild if nothing was built. It is a build, not a rebuild

[zambonir]

The offense too. And don't forget Wheeler got hurt. He has declined to say it affected him (and pitched pretty well) but it did happen.

Hard to read much into Nola's September record when this September isn't really September (and last year he had his routine disrupted). But, again, it happened.

I think it comes back to the bullpen there as well though, Joe had to stick with them for one more batter or one more inning a few times too. And we also had no 4th or 5th starter to try and pick anybody up (to say nothing of the doubleheaders).

I wouldn't say it was an epic collapse in a normal season, I'd say it was three bad weeks that could have easily been followed by three more great ones, especially without the doubleheaders and another home stand. Now, that doesn't mean this team looks like they were going to make the playoffs in a normal season, but who knows. The Nats were 27-33 last season at this point (and we'd won 34 games).

Martinez actually was on the hot seat for a bit last year too, but the difference is the Nats had actually won already for many years, and we have not.

[flyers19rw]

Realmuto’s side will be doing what Harper’s did two years ago, negotiating with Middleton. I’m not going to wring my hands over losing JT because I don’t see him leaving. However he will be in the driver’s seat in this deal. Look for six years at 23-25M per. Realmuto has been here, has friends here, seems to be on good terms with Girardi. I believe that he will remain a Phillies.
Just a hunch but I see the Mets going all in on Bauer not Realmuto. DeGrom started to show some wear this year and after him, the Mets staff is a bit mediocre. Look for them to nab Bauer unless Moreno finds some way to outbid them to bring Bauer home to SoCal.

[zambonir]

I walk away from JT at six years and highest possible AAV but that doesn't mean Middleton will. You can trade money for years too of course.

I think the market will end up moving in teams' favor, even for guys like JT and Bauer.

Middleton is the new Moreno, that's the problem. If he doesn't make a good hire here we'll be talking about Bryce and JT the way they talk about Trout.

[flyers19rw]

My call with JT is that he’ll be good for six seasons; probably not all of them behind the plate. Girardi will have to guard JT’s usage. He allowed himself to get run into the ground this year. Being a former catcher himself, Girardi will be able to correctly monitor this situation. Realmuto will most likely spend the majority of his PT at 1B or at DH. That should be fine since his bat is good.

[zambonir]

I don't think there's any reason to think his bat will be good enough for 1B or DH when he's 33.-35. Quite the opposite, in fact - he'll still be a useful catcher after he's lost bat speed and foot speed, even if he's only putting up a 105 OPS+ (which happens to be what Cutch did this year and while we can hope he was coming around post-injury, he's still going to underperform his entire contact, injury also being part of age).

I think JT could still be back-up catcher if he's worth less than that, so five years is ok. You get 2-3 good ones and 2 risky ones. 3 risky ones is too many, and also makes it harder to trade him.

Really, you wouldn't even want JT at 1B now. We're lucky Hoskins has pushed himself back up to being a Top 10 bat (if not a Top 10 player) but JT would only barely be there. He wants Goldschmidt money because he's doing what he does as a catcher but you can't pay that for what he'd be as a 1B even now.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Didi Gregorius grounds out, second baseman Mike Brosseau to first baseman Michael Perez.

A rough way to close out the season, but I wanted to give a big shout out to kikutaro for providing the bot for these game threads in 2020. Well done!

[philsphan67]

Great point, I often follow the threads while working. I focus on work (no radio) and then check every 3 - 4 updates. Going slow when I'm nervous. Really enjoy the site!

[zambonir]

indeed, thanks kikutaro! The bot always has a winning record.

[Austinfan]

I'm happy Nola will be shut down, his lack of command the last two starts screams either fatigue or arm injury - command goes first, then velocity.

I'm not excited about re-signing JT, because to me it's just CYA for giving up Sanchez - they'll overpay him and the last three years of the six year deal will be bad news. Very few players maintain production after 32, and moving him to 1B is a bad option on a team with Hopkins and Bohm. The DH will help, but you don't pay top dollar for a DH with a .750-.800 OPS.

If they don't fix the farm system, spending money will just make them Angels East, a few top players eating up the budget and lots of mediocrity behind them.

[zambonir]

But not signing JT won't really change anything I suspect. It wouldn't be the start of a rebuild, it would be a huge organizational fail that would make them do even dumber things. The money would just go to another Cutch or Arrieta type (as well as a new mid-level catcher), whether via FA or trade, and they'd sign another big-ticket FA after 2021 (if not before - you could let JT go and sign Springer but he's even older. Maybe less years though).