17 Washington Nationals (Gonzalez, G) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Thompson, Ja)

Austinfan 2017-09-27 04:33:55 UTC #82

Thompson was shaky, his velocity is down even though he's actually pitched fewer innings this year than last year.
His slider and changeup are much improved, if he can regain some of his lost velocity on the FB and sinker he's got a chance to be a steady rotation guy next year.
Also needs to throw more strikes, just can't fall behind hitters on a regular basis and run deep pitch counts.

They could have a solid rotation IF young pitchers improve over this offseason:
Nola - just needs more stamina and smooth out his new delivery
Pivetta - attack with the FB, and refine the curve and changeup
Thompson - get a little stronger, add 1-2 MPH back and throw more strikes
Eickhoff - get healthy, he showed in 2016 he's a solid starting pitcher if he's 100%
Valesquez - throw strikes
Lively - sharpen his command, he's got a deceptive FB but it's not good enough to throw down the middle of the plate and he needs to work on his secondary pitches
Eflin - build up his leg strength and work with Burris to use his legs in his delivery
Leiter - focus on 4 pitches and improve them

It's not like most of these guys have to make a huge jump, as we saw toward the end of this season, they have the stuff to win if they can just make some tweaks.

Same with the pen
Neris - consistency
Garcia - consistency, trust your FB (97-98) and throw more strikes, get ahead and use the splitter to put hitters away
Ramos - just refinement, much better since he returned
Morgan - just keep on keeping on
Milner - add a tad bit more strength, he was touching 91, if he could just hit 90-91 and touch 93 instead of 88-90, t91, he could have a solid future
Rios - just keep improving, has shown enough for a long relief role
Pinto - needs to sharpen command of his pitches, has the raw material
Arano - regain the velocity he had before he was injured, combine that with his ability to pitch

If enough young pitchers take a step up, they can surprise.
A FA pitcher could help, but not enough to be a difference maker - the key next season is how fast and how many young pitchers take that step.

EDmuch 2017-09-27 15:53:44 UTC #83

A free agent like Darvish who wins 15 games would make a difference.

flyers19rw 2017-09-27 16:59:58 UTC #84

Darvish's inability to go deep into games causes me some concern. He could be a BP killer.

zambonir 2017-09-27 17:37:16 UTC #85

In 2017 MLB averaging six innings might be deep - or at least intentional. What you want these days is a bullpen that's good enough to use for three innings, not one you worry about using for three innings.

Austinfan 2017-09-27 22:38:48 UTC #86

Darvish runs up a lot of deep counts, like our young pitchers, he just has better stuff to som extent and a lot more experience.

andyb 2017-09-27 23:59:40 UTC #87

Like it or not the 5 or 6 inning pitcher is here to stay permanently. If good pitchers have K/9 rates over 9 then very few of them will consistently go 7 innings. Nola included though he does not have quite that K rate. All hitters work counts and pitchers do better with more strikeouts.

We better sign Otani then because we get to carry an extra pitcher with him on the roster since he can be an extra bat on the bench.

Austinfan 2017-09-28 00:19:59 UTC #88

Nola's one of the top K rate pitchers in the league.
But pitchers who go 7 innings consistently tend to be first strike throwers more than "K" guys, except for a few "horses" who consistently exceed 100 pitches.
That is, they pitch ahead of hitter, and force weak contact as much as garnering "K's.
A lot of strikeout pitchers run deep counts because they overthrow trying to put hitters away.
Same with nibblers who try to stay around the plate but don't have the confidence in their stuff to challenge hitters early in the count.

bkox 2017-09-28 00:57:46 UTC #89

Among qualified pitchers this year Nola is 22nd in pitches per inning. Darvish is 37th. Lance Lynn is 49th

andyb 2017-09-28 03:22:35 UTC #90

Strikeout pitchers throw more pitches because it takes more pitches to strike people out. They are also more effective than other pitchers generally. It just costs you innings. The more people Nola strikes out, the fewer innings he will pitch.

Austinfan 2017-09-28 03:28:39 UTC #91

Depends on the pitcher. Does Sales throw a lot of pitches per inning?

andyb 2017-09-28 13:54:34 UTC #92

undoubtedly

zambonir 2017-09-28 16:15:36 UTC #93

Soupy Sales?

As of today Sale is 25th in P/IP ratio, four spots behind Nola (and just one behind Jeremy Hellickson). 10 spots ahead of Darvish.

Austinfan 2017-09-28 16:56:29 UTC #94

Nova is 1st in p/IP and 6.28K/9 IP
Kershaw is 2nd in p/IP and 10.53K/9 IP
Kluber is 3rd in p/IP and 11.87K/9 IP
Leake is 4th in p/IP and 6.29K/9 IP
Fulmer is 5th in p/IP and 6.23K/9 IP
Martinez is 6th in p/IP and 9.53K/9 IP
Carrasco is 7th in p/IP and 10.00K/9 IP

So there doesn't seem to be any correlation between pitches per inning and K rate.
I suspect it's more a matter of a bifurcated distribution, strike throwers who miss bats will have low p/IP rates, as will strike throws who induce weak contact, but strikeout pitchers who lack command and contact pitchers who nibble and can't put hitters away will have high pitch counts.

andyb 2017-09-28 19:31:07 UTC #95

There is correlation though. If one went to a pitches per plate appearance you would see it better. Obviously good pitchers face fewer hitters and that is one factor in pitches per inning.

The K rate of the top 10 pitches/PA are mostly below average: 6.2, 5.8, 9.4, 4.7, 7.1, 7.4, 7.2, 11.9, 5.7, 8.0 (average 7.34)
Now the bottom 10: 10.0, 9.2, 9.6, 8.5, 8.1, 12.9 (Sale!), 8.5, 11.2, 10.7, 7.2 (average 9.59)

This is just common sense. Strikeout pitchers work deeper counts and throw more pitches because of that. Some of them are really good pitchers which lessens their pitches per inning, but in general they throw more pitches.