17 Philadelphia Phillies (H. Alvarez) @ Atlanta Braves (J. Teheran)

kikutaro 2017-09-24 01:56:43 UTC #81

Top of the 9th inning

Ruiz at first base.
Camargo at third base.
Vizcaíno relieved Brothers.

kikutaro 2017-09-24 02:00:44 UTC #82

Arodys Vizcaino pitches to Aaron Altherr

strike looking (98 mph fastball)
ball (85 mph curve)
strike looking (83 mph curve)
ball (96 mph fastball)
foul ball (86 mph curve)
foul ball (98 mph fastball)
strike swinging (98 mph fastball)
Altherr struck out swinging.

kikutaro 2017-09-24 02:02:45 UTC #83

Arodys Vizcaino pitches to Maikel Franco

strike swinging (87 mph curve)
foul ball (85 mph curve)
strike swinging (85 mph curve)
Franco struck out swinging.

Austinfan 2017-09-24 05:37:19 UTC #84

Alvarez looked solid through 4, then started to tire in the 5th.
Hasn't regained all his velocity but knows how to pitch.
Interesting decision, invite to camp, give him a contract?
If he regains some more strength by spring he'd be a legitimate candidate to start next year, but I'd want to see that he's stronger before I make a commitment.

zambonir 2017-09-24 15:44:48 UTC #85

Right, he is probably going to be non-tendered. I'm not sure what he could have done to become definitively worth both a 40-man spot and an arbitration-eligible salary. After that it's an easy decision to offer him a ST invite, but he'll have other offers too so it just depends if he's grateful to the Phillies for being the team that took a chance on him. It could also be no more or less than it was at face value - the Phillies needed a body after the injuries to Velasquez and Eflin, he needed a chance to pitch, everybody moves on.

allentown 2017-09-24 15:50:13 UTC #86

I agree that the 40-man spot is the key here. That puts him in competition with both a lot of promising young guys and Klentak's desire to add talent in the off-season. It's likely a lot easier to hold him through the Rule 5 draft off of the 40-man, than to try to take him off 40-man later when Klentak adds a 40-man guy. With the size of our budget, being eligible for arb is a non-issue. It won't be a significant arb award in any case. We can even use that in our favor. Sign him to a larger one-year deal and sail him through the winter off the 40-man. It won't be a big enough $ deal to truly frighten a potential Rule 5 pursuer, but it will make them think twice.

zambonir 2017-09-24 16:53:37 UTC #87

Can you really tender and sign a player and then remove him from the 40-man roster before the Rule V,? I see what you mean about the salary scaring off claimants (on regular waivers I'd think, Rule V wouldn't be an issue after that) though.

Agreed it's not a lot of money but if it's about the 40-man space a prospect is probably more valuable than a marginal guy who also makes $6 million (he last made $4.5). And even though the Phillies are made of money, guaranteeing a marginal player that much really isn't good business. There's that loophole where you cut him at a certain point in ST but I'd still rather take my dumpster-dives at dumpster prices.

He would have to be a serious candidate for the rotation to stick around on anything other than minor league deal, IMO. If you're paying him $6 million he's almost guaranteed to be the 5th starter, at least initially, and at the expense of adding a second veteran. In other words, he'd be your new Clay Bucholtz. Which might be okay, if he fizzles he gets replaced internally, if he thrives, he gets traded. But I know that's not the level of talent people are hoping for from that second rotation upgrade (to say nothing of the first).

andyb 2017-09-24 17:02:32 UTC #88

All this talk about Henderson Alvarez and machinations to keep him is just so off focus. As Zambonir said, he was a veteran arm given a tryout (essentially free for the Phillies) that might take some pressure off young pitchers in September by taking a few of their innings. Nothing more.

Pitchers like him do get ST invites all the time. He probably has been good enough to merit one from us. But seriously he would go into Spring Training as something like our 10th starter. He'd be destined for AAA and there is no reason to expect more. He probably won't get any guaranteed offers from anyone so he'll take the team that offers him the best chance of making a roster. At the moment I would submit that is unlikely to be the Phillies for these reasons:

A. We will sign one or more veteran pitchers
B. We have a half dozen young pitchers that will compete for 2-3 rotation spots (Eickhoff, Velasquez, Pivetta, Eflin, Eshelman, Lively, even Letier). All these arms have more of a future than Alvarez.
C. We won't offer him significant money (because we don't have to in order to get pitchers to compete for our rotation spots. We already have enough pitchers as good as him).
D. He is not worth a 40-man spot over the winter.

Alvarez was here as a warm body to take pressure off of the kids. Maybe we'll give him a ST invite. He just isn't good enough or in demand enough to merit anything else. There is nothing wrong with that. He helped us by taking innings. We helped him by giving him a major league showcase. That is all it was/is.

Austinfan 2017-09-24 20:58:09 UTC #89

Alvarez is all of 28 next year, and has shown, if healthy, that he's a solid ML starter.
If he comes to camp and has regained additional strength and stamina, he's got a legitimate shot at a starter's job.
He's low cost, high upside, I can see them giving him a decent offer to encourage him to come to ST.
Whether they'd blow a 40 man spot would depend on medical reports.

julio 2017-09-24 23:33:16 UTC #90

Yes.

The tender deadline is December 1, 2017 (per the CBA). The Winter Meetings are late this year (December 10-14), with the Rule 5 Draft on the 14th. Per MLB Rule 9(b)(2), players can be outrighted any time prior to three days before the Rule 5 draft (or through December 11th, this year).

andyb 2017-09-25 00:05:01 UTC #91

But he is not good enough to be better than their 10th starter option next year. And his upside is not high enough that anyone else really wants him at this point. You just don't get the bigger picture. They needed someone to eat some innings in September. He needed someone to give him a major league showcase. Win/win for both parties.

But there is nothing there to guarantee him anything beyond a Spring Training invite. If there were more there he'd go to another club because he is simply nowhere near good enough to spend a 40-man spot on. That you see this audition as something more is puzzling.

Austinfan 2017-09-25 02:06:17 UTC #92

Actually doing it i the majors leagues > potentially doing it in the major leagues.
Alvarez had 92 ML starts before this season.
In 47 starts between 2013-14 he had about a 3.00 ERA/3.45 FIP and 3.9 WAR
Blew out his shoulder in 2015, struggled in 2016, trying to come back in 2017.
As Morgan has shown, shoulder injuries are not necessarily career enders anymore.

Fact is, until he shows up in spring trainng, no one really knows if Alvarez will progress any further than he did this summer, but he doesn't need that much improvement, more stamina, a mile or two on the FB, improved command and you have a solid back of the rotation starter. He's only throwing his sinker at 91.4, down from 94 in his prime years, and his changeup and slider are too small a sample to judge. But he knows how to pitch.

Would I pay a lot? Of course not. But an invite with maybe a little bonus? Sure.

julio 2017-09-25 02:25:07 UTC #93

It's not really a decision whether or not to "invite him to spring training." He's on the 40-man roster today. If he stays on the 40-man roster, he will be in spring training - the CBA requires that. If they try to remove him from the 40-man at any point, he could be claimed off waivers, or he could choose to become a free agent if he's not claimed. If he opts to stay in the Phils' system, he could be taken in the Rule 5 draft. If he has the value you seem to think he has, and he opts for free agency, there will be a market - an auction market - for his services.

California_Dreamin 2017-09-25 03:47:45 UTC #94

andyb...I usually agree with you on Phillie topics but have to disagree with you about pursuing Alvarez. I agree completely with AF that Alvarez is precisely the kind of player you need to keep...he appears healthy, he is still young, he has been successful in the major leagues and he is already a Phillie.

Lets put it this way...the Phillies rarely ever seem to be the team that strikes gold when they bring in a former top player but other teams often improve greatly by getting these guys. Now we have a chance to be that team and I for one think Alvarez has a very good chance of returning to near former form.

Both of his starts could/should have been victories, both were sabotaged by a bullpen that could not protect 3-2 and 2-0 leads. Ironically enough also, Alvarez was the unlucky hurler who should have been removed after 5 solid innings in his first start and allowed to come out for the sixth inning after 5 shutout innings in his second start.

I do not want the Phils auditioning guys like Alvarez so he can become successful elsewhere [and I believe he can be], I want him pitching for the Phils. As for the 40 man roster, I know this much as a phan for an awful long time...I guarantee we will be pulling our hair out over a semi-veteran [think Rob Ducey type] who we don't think has a chance of helping the team so I refuse to believe that keeping Alvarez is going to somehow cause the Phils to lose another player. I can think of 3-4 players already that I think the Phils will protect who don't have near the potential of Alvarez.

andyb 2017-09-25 03:57:23 UTC #95

I have no problem pursuing Alvarez. There is a bit of potential there though the stuff he has shown is not really front line stuff. Remember he is not going against top lineups also at this time of year.

To show enough to maintain a 40-man roster spot and pay him arbitration salary is a lot. And he just has not shown anywhere near that stuff. As I said I am fine with bringing him into Spring Training. Give him a shot. I have low expectations that he is an actual solution. So all we are talking about is making a big deal about a guy who is not good enough to keep on the 40-man roster at this point. Which is a whole lot of misguided talk about nothing.

What AF misses is that once the Phillies decide to not keep Alvarez on the 40-man he'll go to the highest bidder or the best chance to make a roster. The one thing we have is numbers of major league ready or close starters. Which means the best situation for him is likely not here even if he has had a positive experience.

Henderson Alvarez is arbitration eligible. His salary was $4 million last time. Are we going to offer him that or even the biggest permissible discount to that (used to be 20%). No. So we have to release him or waive him. We absolutely have to unless we think he is worth millions of dollars based on 2 starts against AAAA rosters.

zambonir 2017-09-25 16:09:54 UTC #96

Yeah, this is a simple call, AF - do you think Alvarez should be tendered an arbitration-eligible contract or not? The other stuff is all just fantasy. He'll either be on the 40 or he won't. If he's still not on any team's 40 after the Rule V, of course you offer him a minor league deal, and you could sweeten it with a high major league salary, but that's not the only factor. And even then, you're going to lose someone from the 40 to make room for him, though if he wins a job in spring training great. He probably won't though.

Philsmania 2017-09-25 16:34:57 UTC #97

I would try to get Alvarez to Clearwater where he would compete for a job with a contract that's absolutely loaded with incentives and contingencies but I wouldn't give him a forty man roster spot now. We just have too many guys to protect.

At present, with the 60 day DL loophole, we currently have 46 guys on the 40 man roster and I got to imagine that we will need to clear away at least 14 of them this offseason.