GDT 9/18/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin) @ Atlanta Braves (Teheran)

[kikutaro]

Bruce

Offensive Substitution: Pinch-hitter Jay Bruce replaces Jose Alvarez.
Called strike (88.9 mph slider)
Ball (89. mph slider)
Foul (96. mph two-seam fastball)
Foul (89.9 mph four-seam fastball)
Ball (90.1 mph four-seam fastball)
In play, out(s) (96.4 mph four-seam fastball)
145 ft ground ball (exit speed: 74 mph, launch angle: 5°)

Jay Bruce grounds out, third baseman Josh Donaldson to first baseman Freddie Freeman.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	4	4	3
Atlanta Braves	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		1	5	1

---

Current Batters

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cesar Hernandez 2B	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	.282	.337	.407	.744
J.T. Realmuto C	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	.276	.328	.494	.822
Bryce Harper RF	3	1	1	2	1	0	1	.255	.373	.497	.870
Rhys Hoskins 1B	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	.238	.376	.483	.859
Jean Segura SS	3	0	2	1	1	0	0	.283	.328	.429	.757
Scott Kingery CF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.257	.315	.477	.792
Adam Haseley LF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.257	.326	.406	.732
Maikel Franco 3B	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.234	.297	.409	.706
Zach Eflin P	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	.174	.174	.196	.370
Jose Alvarez P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jay Bruce PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.223	.270	.534	.804

Atlanta Braves

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuna Jr. CF	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	.279	.362	.509	.871
Ozzie Albies 2B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.293	.350	.502	.852
Freddie Freeman 1B	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	.299	.394	.562	.956
Josh Donaldson 3B	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.258	.378	.526	.904
Nick Markakis LF	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	.291	.360	.430	.790
Matt Joyce RF	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	.297	.410	.467	.877
Brian McCann C	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	.252	.321	.410	.731
Dansby Swanson SS	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.250	.326	.431	.757
Julio Teheran P	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.109	.107	.127	.234
Luke Jackson P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Sean Newcomb P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Adam Duvall PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.253	.314	.547	.861
Josh Tomlin P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Kyle Wright P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Current Pitchers

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Zach Eflin	7.0	5	1	0	2	4	0	99-58	4.00
Jose Alvarez	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18-13	3.34

Atlanta Braves

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Julio Teheran	5.0	3	4	3	2	6	2	90-56	3.55
Luke Jackson	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	15-9	3.80
Sean Newcomb	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14-11	3.14
Josh Tomlin	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	16-9	3.87
Kyle Wright	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11-8	8.68

[kikutaro]

Joyce

Pitching Change: Hector Neris replaces Jose Alvarez, batting 9th.
Called strike (84.6 mph splitter)
Ball (85.6 mph splitter)
Swinging strike (85.9 mph splitter)
Swinging strike (86. mph splitter)

Matt Joyce strikes out swinging.

[kikutaro]

McCann, B

Called strike (84.2 mph splitter)
Ball (85.6 mph splitter)
Ball (93.8 mph four-seam fastball)
Called strike (86. mph splitter)
Swinging strike (blocked) (86.3 mph splitter)

Brian McCann strikes out swinging.

[kikutaro]

Swanson

Swinging strike (86.6 mph splitter)
Ball (86.8 mph splitter)
Ball (85.7 mph splitter)
Swinging strike (85. mph splitter)
Foul (85.6 mph splitter)
In play, out(s) (85.1 mph splitter)
374 ft fly ball (exit speed: 101 mph, launch angle: 39°)

Dansby Swanson flies out sharply to center fielder Scott Kingery.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Nice win. Great pitching. Just enough offense.

[kikutaro]

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	4	4	3
Atlanta Braves	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	1

Final

---

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cesar Hernandez 2B	4	1	1	1	0	1	1	.282	.337	.407	.744
J.T. Realmuto C	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	.276	.328	.494	.822
Bryce Harper RF	3	1	1	2	1	0	1	.255	.373	.497	.870
Rhys Hoskins 1B	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	.238	.376	.483	.859
Jean Segura SS	3	0	2	1	1	0	0	.283	.328	.429	.757
Scott Kingery CF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.257	.315	.477	.792
Adam Haseley LF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.257	.326	.406	.732
Maikel Franco 3B	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.234	.297	.409	.706
Zach Eflin P	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	.174	.174	.196	.370
Jose Alvarez P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jay Bruce PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.223	.270	.534	.804
Hector Neris P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Atlanta Braves

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuna Jr. CF	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	.279	.362	.509	.871
Ozzie Albies 2B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.293	.350	.502	.852
Freddie Freeman 1B	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	.299	.394	.562	.956
Josh Donaldson 3B	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.258	.378	.526	.904
Nick Markakis LF	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	.291	.360	.430	.790
Matt Joyce RF	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	.295	.408	.464	.872
Brian McCann C	4	0	0	1	0	1	0	.251	.320	.408	.728
Dansby Swanson SS	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.249	.325	.430	.755
Julio Teheran P	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.109	.107	.127	.234
Luke Jackson P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Sean Newcomb P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Adam Duvall PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.253	.314	.547	.861
Josh Tomlin P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Kyle Wright P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Zach Eflin (W, 9-12)	7.0	5	1	0	2	4	0	99-58	4.00
Jose Alvarez (H, 15)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18-13	3.34
Hector Neris (S, 28)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15-10	2.98

Atlanta Braves

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Julio Teheran (L, 10-10)	5.0	3	4	3	2	6	2	90-56	3.55
Luke Jackson	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	15-9	3.80
Sean Newcomb	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	14-11	3.14
Josh Tomlin	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	16-9	3.87
Kyle Wright	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11-8	8.68

[LoneStarPhan]

Another solid 1-2-3 inning and save for Neris. Let's give him the day off tomorrow. Alvarez also had the solid 8th inning and probably needs off tomorrow as well.

Phillies didn't have many hits but had some good chances to score more, but with good pitching, they had enough for the win. Can't say enough about Eflin giving them seven innings tonight with just the one unearned run. Phillies started off with 3 errors before the Braves got their first hit (fourth inning), but the fielding was fine after those errors.

Harper homer a big blow and Segura had a good night with a couple hits and the bases loaded walk.

Phillis win this series with the Braves and go for a sweep tomorrow. Need four wins in final twelve games to have a winning season. Things are looking up but need to keep the pressure on to continue to get wins as the season winds down.

[zambonir]

Well, we won't be seeing the clinch no matter what, as Nats don't play tomorrow. But let's finish this. We could still crawl back into WC, may as well be perfect for one series.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Good news, Fagraphs now has the Phillies playoff chances over 1% (we are now at 1.5%; I think it was 0.4% at the start of this series).

[zambonir]

We're almost at 0 run differential too.

Indians will be playing for their post-season life against us too.

[Austinfan]

The most important outcome down the stretch is Eflin finding his mojo.
He's a solid #3 with #2 potential if he keeps adding strength and refines his command and stuff.
He doesn't need any drastic changes, just more consistency, especially with his changeup and locating his FB.

Though what is a 90 MPH slider? Sounds more like he's replaced it with a cutter.

[andyb]

Eflin pitched well. Probably got lucky on some balls the Braves did not square up but he threw strikes and even if they had hit a HR or two they would have been with the bases empty. He is not a number 3. More of a solid 4/5 starter that can eat innings but those are valuable. Velasquez has been better of late too. These will be tough decisions in the offseason (along with Pivetta) as they can't rely on most of these starters but we probably need them to do well to be a good team that does not just go out and buy solutions (which we need to do too of course).

[Philsmania]

Of the three young starters who didn't really work out this season, Eflin is the only one I am not ready to give up on as a starter. I would like to see Velasquez in the bullpen.

[andyb]

They all have their merits. Eflin can go deeper in games and relieving was a disaster so agree he is best suited for the rotation. Velasquez has a starter's arsenal. Unclear if he would be better by solely focusing on the bullpen though. Sometimes he has needed a few innings for the command to click. He also is valuable at the plate which you lose in the bullpen.

Pivetta is the larger enigma. Clearly he needs to find a little more movement but the larger issue this year was with his curve which lost some of its bite even though it had great spin rate:

You May Wish to Reconsider Nick Pivetta

Pivetta may be the pitcher served the least well by the new pitching regime. He might also have the most potential of the three since Velasquez' command may never make him more than a back end starter. Eflin is the safest of the three, but really is not more than a back end starter also. One is just more sure of that than with the other two.

[Austinfan]

Eflin had a bad stretch in the middle of the season, basically the month of July, probably due to Young insisting on him relying on his 4 seamer instead of his 2 seamer. When he went back to his two seamer, he dominated like he did to start the season. If he can pitch like that for a full season, he's easily a #2.

2019 without July: 134 129 45 19 33 107 3.02
If that ain't a #2 starter, who is?

He still needs to refine his changeup and figure out his slider/cutter, but the raw material is there for a top SP.
Eflin is still only 25, and only 2 years away from double knee surgery which led to him revamping his mechanics.

[Austinfan]

This just reinforces my opinion that SPs MUST have at least 3 pitches, and ideally both a 2 and 4 seamer as well as two secondary pitches - Nola is a good example, at times this year he relied on just the 4 seamer and curve, but was at his best when he could mix in his plus 2 seamer and plus changeup.

Pivetta has a straight 4 seamer which is very hittable when he loses velocity and a plus curve that he has struggled to locate this year - but nothing else you'd want to rely on.

Velasquez has a plus FB with great movement until he tires, but lacks command of any other pitch.

That's why they're both destined for the bullpen.

[andyb]

You can cherry pick 6 starts for any pitcher to make them look good. It all counts though. Eflin simply does not miss anywhere near enough bats to be considered a number two starter. There are reasons he has a 4.70 career ERA. This year he has given up more hits than IP and has a 7.2 K/9 rate. If they deadened the ball a bit I would have more confidence in him being more than a 4th starter. Eflin's issue is not that he does not have 4 pitches. It is that most of his pitches are average or slightly below. He is a good pitcher, just not a top of the rotation starter. I fully expect the team to add a number 2 starter or better this offseason to pair with Nola. Then 4 or 5 other pitchers can compete for the bottom 3 slots.

[zambonir]

What everyone agrees on is that Eflin will be in the rotation next year. But is he the fourth starter (ahead of a bunch of guys competing for the last spot) or the 5th starter (behind two new additions and Nola and Arrieta, even if he turns out to be better than Arrieta)?

As much as you don't want to repeat this year's mistakes I could see scenario 1, so long as they get a good enough new addition. Then your fifth starter is still Pivetta, VV or Smyly until either the deadline or Spencer Howard day. Good teams can still have one underwhelming starter for a while - just not three of them (four if you count Eickhoff).

[schillingfan]

I don’t care whether Eflin is a 2 or 3 or a 4 or 5. He’s going to be in the rotation and has shown down the stretch that he deserves it. He’s still young enough that his future is not yet written.

[Austinfan]

I seriously doubt the Phillies add a #2 starter, since the way people define it, we're talking a 3+ WAR guy, and there are 34 3 WAR pitchers (and two more on the cusp). Last year there were 23.

So if we're talking 2.5-3.0 WAR, we're talking 4.00 ERA/FIP guys.

Unless the Phillies somehow get Cole (he's gonna get paid, why would he come here?), I don't think there are too many candidates who'd quality as a #2 in the sense most people are thinking.

Gerrit Cole (29)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33)
Stephen Strasburg (31) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30)
Jose Quintana (31) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30)
Jake Odorizzi (30)
Kyle Gibson (32)
Cole Hamels (36)
Tanner Roark (33)
Michael Pineda (30)

Who would quality as a #2, and more importantly, given their age, who could be expected to remain at that level more than a year or two.