GDT 9/15/21 Chicago Cubs (Mills) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[bkox]

home plate ump calling strikes well off the outside part of the plate for lefties

[kikutaro]

Odubel Herrera

Called strike (80.8 mph knuckle curve)
Foul (96.5 mph four-seam fastball)
Foul (97. mph four-seam fastball)
In play, out(s) (97.6 mph four-seam fastball)

Odubel Herrera grounds out, pitcher Trevor Megill to first baseman Frank Schwindel. Andrew Knapp to 3rd.

[kikutaro]

Jean Segura

Mound Visit.
Ball (96.7 mph sinker)
Ball (96.6 mph sinker)
Ball (82.1 mph knuckle curve)

Passed ball by catcher Robinson Chirinos. Andrew Knapp scores.

Philadelphia Phillies 6 - Chicago Cubs 5

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Chicago Cubs	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	5	8	0
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	6	11	1

Final

---

Chicago Cubs

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Duffy SS	5	2	3	1	0	0	1	.266	.337	.345	.682
Frank Schwindel 1B	5	1	2	2	0	0	1	.337	.380	.645	1.026
Ian Happ LF	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	.222	.310	.429	.739
Patrick Wisdom 3B	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	.237	.303	.533	.836
Robinson Chirinos C	4	1	1	2	0	1	1	.234	.333	.468	.801
Alfonso Rivas RF	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	.281	.378	.406	.785
David Bote 2B	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.192	.257	.320	.576
Sergio Alcantara SS	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	.199	.302	.313	.615
Adbert Alzolay P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.067	.097	.100	.197
Willson Contreras PH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.225	.330	.409	.739
Codi Heuer P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Trevor Megill P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Alec Mills P	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	.037	.037	.074	.111
Scott Effross P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Rafael Ortega CF	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.282	.338	.469	.808

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Odubel Herrera CF	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	.255	.310	.420	.730
Jean Segura 2B	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.295	.356	.442	.798
Bryce Harper RF	3	1	2	0	1	1	0	.309	.424	.614	1.038
J.T. Realmuto 1B	4	1	3	2	0	0	1	.267	.352	.445	.797
Didi Gregorius SS	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.217	.276	.377	.654
Andrew McCutchen LF	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	.218	.332	.432	.764
Ian Kennedy P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Freddy Galvis 3B	4	1	3	2	0	0	1	.246	.303	.423	.726
Andrew Knapp C	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	.160	.218	.229	.447
Ranger Suarez P	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	.250	.308	.417	.724
Brad Miller PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.225	.321	.457	.778
Hector Neris P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jose Alvarado P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Archie Bradley P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mickey Moniak LF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.094	.171	.188	.359

Chicago Cubs

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Alec Mills	4.2	6	4	4	2	4	1	68-44	4.50
Scott Effross	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6-4	3.12
Adbert Alzolay	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	22-18	4.81
Codi Heuer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	11-7	3.79
Trevor Megill (L, 1-2)	0.2	1	1	0	0	0	0	14-8	9.33

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Ranger Suarez	6.0	6	2	2	1	8	1	94-61	1.50
Hector Neris (H, 10)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10-5	3.39
Jose Alvarado (BS, 3)	0.1	1	2	2	0	0	1	20-10	4.13
Archie Bradley	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6-3	3.61
Ian Kennedy (W, 2-1)(BS, 4)	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	12-9	3.75

[HopeSpringsEternal]

A fitting way to win this game. Knapp scores on a passed ball (looked like a cross up).

[LoneStarPhan]

Some teams are bad enough that they refuse to win.

Somehow, Phillies win, 6-5, on the passed ball.

Pitcher stood on the mound while the catcher went for the ball. Then he walked calmly off toward the dugout.

Kennedy with the win tonight.

Great to get a win but they need to get 3 to 5 wins in a row and then come back for a couple more after each loss.

[bkeich]

Wow, Moniak did something helpful. Talk about a miracle.

[bkox]

Since becoming a starter on August 2, Ranger Suarez has 1.4 fWAR. Zack Wheeler has 1.5 fWAR in the same time span.

— Leo Morgenstern ( @morgensternmlb ) September 16, 2021

[HopeSpringsEternal]

And the Rockies beat the Braves tonight in extra innings. Rockies are 5-1 on their road trip that started with a series win in Philadelphia. Go figure.

[schillingfan]

Not sure if I should hope we score a run in the bottom of the 8th; sets up a chance for another blown save

Rather prescient of you.

[Sabin]

31 blown saves for the Phillies. Approaching big league record of 34 by '04 Rockies

— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) September 16, 2021

'04 Rockies: 68-94

[LoneStarPhan]

Almost could say the Phillies this season are pretty good for being as bad as they are.

[Philsmania]

I was was wondering if it was just anecdotal but I thought the Phillies bullpen blew a lot of saves in games he started. And the Phillies' offense has been particularly anemic for him.

[phillychuck]

Can't believe last year's Phillies didn't set the record, honestly.

[bkox]

Can't believe last year's Phillies didn't set the record, honestly.

Even the Phillies couldnt find a way to blow 34 saves in 60 games

[andyb]

To be fair there are a lot more blown "holds" these days than there used to be with the shifts in bullpen usage. Shorter outings mean more chances to blow things. Starters going 5 instead of 7 provide more opportunities to blow things. Our bullpen is bad. Just not sure it is as bad as last year and other bullpens in history.

Now one could say that Girardi continues to trot out pitchers that blow saves consistently (Kennedy) so he is making the problem worse in some cases.

It is time to make Hector the closer for the rest of the year. I am OK with good but not great. As opposed to consistently giving up HRs in every outing.

[zambonir]

Certainly "blown holds" are not good either, especially in the 7th or 8th inning. But "blown saves" as a category is no more descriptive than pitcher losses (if slightly more narrow since it's just relievers), and also doesn't tell you if they won the game (as with last night).

Another perspective: 32 blown saves in 145 games means the Phillies are blowing a save once every 4.5 games, on average. In the 2008 World Series, they had two blown saves in five games. Both by a very good set-up man.

[andyb]

I have always thought blown saves when presented as a percentage should have a denominator of saves + holds. Getting a blown save in the 6th inning is really just blowing a hold. The stats on saves and holds and blown saves are scattered in various sources, but here are the Phillies presented as a percentage of saves and holds.

Neris - 7 BS, 12 S, 10 H = 76% success rate
Kennedy - 3 BS, 6 S + 67% success rate
Kennedy (whole season) - 4 BS, 22 S - 85%
Alvarado - 3 BS, 5 S, 14 H - 86%
Suarez - 3 BS, 4 S, 0 H - 57%
Bradley - 3 BS, 2 S, 11 H - 81%
Coonrod - 3 BS, 2 S, 7 H - 75%
Brogdon - 4 BS, 1 S, 11 H - 75%
Hammer - 1 BS, 0 H - 0%
Romero - 0 BS, 3 H - 100%
Falter - 0 BS, 2 H - 100%
Kintzler - 2 BS, 2 H - 50%
EDLS - 2 BS, 1 H - 33%

Hector is not quite as good as I thought he would be and of course Kennedy was great in Texas. I just still think recent trends are such that Hector should close. Alvarado and Bradley look decent in these stats though I guess they might have been saved by others who got outs and stranded their runners. Coonrod and Brogdon have a lower success rate and should stay in the middle innings.

[zambonir]

I mean, blown saves are still meaningful as an individual stat, for a closer, though not necessarily projectable or evaluative of an overall performance. One slump or few unlucky games can wreck the whole % (though in Kennedy's case he seems to be, shall we say, fielding-independent). Suarez was promoted to closer during the same time he was blowing saves and earning zero holds - but still pitching well.

And as a team stat, it still tells you the bullpen has blown a lot of leads from (in theory) the 6th inning on.

This is definitely a much better approach to a percentage. The problem now is, I suspect Joe believes Hector is performing better because he's not pitching the 9th (and the stats are gonna tell you that too), just like he has refused to move Cutch back to lead-off (even from one side). These are still all such small samples that it's hard to know anything. Coonrod and Brogdon probably don't pitch with as many leads - perhaps they'd still blow 2-3 out of their next 10, perhaps not.

All three of the "closers" besides Kennedy and Suarez look good with their non-ninth numbers.

[Sabin]

Another perspective: 32 blown saves in 145 games means the Phillies are blowing a save once every 4.5 games, on average. In the 2008 World Series, they had two blown saves in five games. Both by a very good set-up man.

I trust this is more a tongue-in-cheek observation. . . I mean, I really don't think anyone needs to explain the fallacies that using this 'perspective' as an actual comparison to this season's team presents.

[phillychuck]

I meant as a percentage of games but was not clear about that. Maybe they did set the percentage record...