GDT 9/11/18 Washington Nationals (Roark) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta)

[ButlerBulldog]

I think the team is still heading in the right direction, but this collapse will hurt them financially in ticket sales and perhaps even as a negative perception to free agents.

No doubt. Perhaps the worst aspect of these losses to the Nationals is that they’ve happened with Bryce Harper in the other dugout. His home run tonight may have been his way of crossing the Phillies off his list of suitors.

[schillingfan]

I don’t read all the threads so this might have already been discussed, but even when they were winning, it seemed like smoke and mirrors. We never had a consistently dominating facet of the game but on a game by game basis, we were able to string together enough positives to have early success.

I think this is just regression to the mean, crashing back to earth with a very loud thump. The Pythagorean record and performance in one run games should have been a red flag. Doesn’t make the current stretch much fun but in the end, our record will be probably what it should be.

I’m not sure how I feel about Gabe. I think a lot of managers are managing to not fail rather than to succeed. If you follow conventional baseball wisdom, you insulate yourself from criticism even if it fails. Gabe has the courage to try something else and the conviction to stick with it. He needs to be evaluated over the larger sample size of the whole season and not just the recent collapse. Let’s be honest, this Phillies team never had the talent to compete with the big boys – their only chance was to try for “value on the margins”. If it didn’t work, well conventional baseball wasn’t going to work either.

With that said, they are horribly painful to watch. I’ve certainly followed a lot of Phillies teams over the years that lost more than they won but the subpar defense, walks and incomprehensible approaches at the plate have made this year much more trying. That and the fact that I let myself begin to hope…

This is pretty much how I feel, disappointed and painful to watch now. It was fun to win and compete again. I have good expectations for next year with the signing or trading to get a couple of stars.

[ButlerBulldog]

This is pretty much how I feel, disappointed and painful to watch now. It was fun to win and compete again. I have good expectations for next year with the signing or trading to get a couple of stars.

I think all of us wanted to believe this team was ready to win, especially after six years marked by mediocrity and the slow deterioration of perhaps the most successful core this franchise has ever had. What’s happened is unfortunate, but it may also serve as a reminder to the front office that more work is needed to make this team a contender.

[andyb]

It is definitely frustrating to watch the collapse of the last few weeks. Part of it is definitely a young pitching staff that is less good in the back end of the season than in the beginning where the starters really carried us. Obviously falling so far behind means that any one or two moves at the deadline like Machado would not really made a difference. There were no 7 WAR solutions out there for a partial season. But I think it also shows how the acquisitions at the deadline really did not help and might have even hurt the team. Cabrera really subtracts as much on defense as he adds on offense. Probably would have been better just letting Kingery or Crawford play SS. Bour and Bautista really add little because their offense is not much better than whatever bat they replace and they force additional bad moves. The lefties were more of the mediocre set of lefties we already had. The accumulation of these moves also meant we lost a player like Lively - so in sum even the inconsequential ones might have hurt the team.

It is hard to grade Klentak on this season. His free agent signings were very good when summed up. They used money to add veterans that cumulatively were worth it. He also chose not to be that creative, biding time for his young prospects and papering over obvious defensive flaws. And the deadline moves were a negative.

In sum I think Klentak thought this was a .500 club that might compete for a playoff spot with some free agents but would not want to impact our prospect base too much by moving too quickly - with an eye towards this winter's free agent market as well.

Hopefully the lesson they draw out of this is to not move away from young prospects and acknowledge that they might have mishandled some players like Kingery and Crawford. They need to decide on which young players are worth keeping and playing them. If Crawford is a plus defensive SS that could put up a .350 OBP, they need to let that happen. If Kingery is going to be better than Hernandez they need to give him a chance to be. If Alfaro can improve a bit the next couple of years they need to play him and NOT sign an aging Ramos who probably needs to be in the DH league for his bat to have maximum impact. And they need to pick which young starters are worth building on (to me that is Velasquez and Pivetta, less sure about Eflin and De Los Santos).

Next year should be about getting a top tier free agent or two while picking the best part of the young core to build upon. And improving the team defense. That is a team that can win 90 games.

[Philsmania]

How a team finishes makes a world of difference in terms of perception. Last year, the Phillies lost 96 games but played well at the end of the season (16-13 from September 1 onward and 12-7 in their final 19 games, including taking 3 out of 4 against a Dodger team that came one game short of the WC). Hence, I am sure that a common sentiment on September 30 will be "I felt a lot better about the future of this team a year ago than I do now." Is that sentiment realistic and fair?

One can point to 1995 and 1999 and see how late-season swoons foreshadowed dismal seasons the following year. But, at the same time, one can point to 1974 in which an up and coming Phillies team contended for much of the season but fizzled toward the end to finish 80-82, though that team only peaked out at five games over .500. That proved to be the prelude to the First Golden Age.

Strangely, it appears that the Phillies need to do what many thought the Sixers needed to do. Insert a superstar (or superstars) into a cast of supporting actors they developed. Embiid and, maybe, Simmonds may become superstar players but the superstar cavalry did not come riding over the ridge this offseason. The previous golden ages developed their own superstars (Schmidt, Rollins, Utley, Howard). This one, so far, has not.

If the Phillies can right the ship enough over the last seventeen games to salvage a winning season, that could help the perception a bit.

[allentown]

How a team finishes makes a world of difference in terms of perception.

I agree with this. It effects everything from season ticket sales to confidence across the organization, top to bottom. It must cause a lot of soul-searching. How management reacts will tell us a lot about the future of the Phillies.

[zambonir]

While they definitely mishandled Kingery and Crawford, another thing this season highlights is just how bare the Amaro cupboard still was. The front office likes to talk about the Cubs and Astros but there is still not any position player in the system besides Hoskins who is a potential homegrown star (and he's limited by his position), and none of the acquired guys (be it Herrera via Rule V or Williams via trade) are either. We - and the front office - are fixated on Machado and Harper because it was already obvious that Herrera, Franco, Altherr and Williams are much more likely to remain supporting players than surprise breakout MVP types. Alfaro and Crawford too though their value is as much positional/defensive. Kingery is still in question, not because he's as bad as he looks this year but because he's not necessarily the next Utley or Altuve.

You can't rush a rebuild if you don't have enough bricks to begin with, even with $ to spend. If this year was "looks like a .500 team but if all goes right maybe a wild card run" next year is now "looks like a playoff team but only if things go right."

To me the pitching is the biggest thing. They needed to come out of this year with a #3 starter they could be sure of, and they didn't. They can certainly sign one, go with what they have for the other two, and then get someone at the deadline if the inconsistency continues. But it'd have been nice if Velasquez inspired more confidence than he does at this point. Pivetta and Eflin are both pleasant surprises but basically #5s. Eickhoff was bad luck but can't be counted on until he shows otherwise. I suppose nobody expected Thompson or Appel to be in the rotation at this point but all the more reason why you want VV to pan out, as far as getting something from those two big trades.

[andyb]

So what do you think about Patrick Corbin with those thoughts. No idea how expensive he'll be (6/200?), but he good, pretty young, and left-handed. He might move the needle more than anyone other than Machado. And you could probably trade a starter like Eflin or Velasquez in a larger deal to improve somewhere else.

[allentown]

So what do you think about Patrick Corbin

We need a LHSP and he's have a really good season. Did something change significantly with his repertoire of pitches. He's having a career season and his K-rate is a lot better than he's ever achieved before. Looks like he may reach 200 IP for the 2nd time in his career. Last time he cross 200 IP he was out injured for the next year and a half. If we sign him, we're paying for the career year he's having this season, and we will lose a draft pick. I like that he's a big LHP.

[andyb]

Hard to know why Corbin is dramatically better this year. He was already good when he was healthy (TJ surgery back in 2013 and missed 1+ years). He has increased his slider use a lot the past season and a half. Better command. That combo has led to a higher K rate.

I don't think he is a one-year wonder. Whether he is merely good or 2018 is his new normal is an open question.

Patrick Corbin Got Better, Then Worse, Then Better | FanGraphs Baseball

[zambonir]

It seems more likely to me that they will trade for someone especially if Corbin is the most valuable available FA. Someone controllable, or someone well-paid who has a year or two of good performance left. They have a plenty of pieces to trade, depending what else they do in FA.

[Philsmania]

Considering how the Yankees have always liked lefties, I imagine they'll make a full court press to sign him.