GDT 8/7/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke)

[EastFallowfield]

Corey Seidman:

Asdrubal Cabrera has driven in more runs in the last 4 games than Manny Machado has as a Dodger.

[LoneStarPhan]

Glad we have Cabrera but I'll take Machado for 2019 and beyond.

[zambonir]

That is presumably a credit to the Phillies' high OBP

[tom81]

Glad we have Cabrera but I'll take Machado for 2019 and beyond.

For me it really depends upon the terms. If it requires a ten year $350 - $400 million contract to sign Machado and we can sign Cabrera for a two year $20 million deal I think I might rather sign Cabrera, let Crawford and Kingery fight it out for SS and start signing the current crop to long term deals.

[zambonir]

It's great Cabrera's here but he'll be 33 years old and his best position is still 2B, if Kingery and Crawford are fighting it out for SS where's Cesar? Franco? I displace any of those guys for Machado, who won't turn 33 until 2025. Cabrera not so much.

[tom81]

Cabrera replaces Florimon from the opening day roster and you have him, Hernandez, Franco, Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, and Santana all fighting for IF playing time. Hoskins, Herrera, Williams, Altherr, Quinn, and Kingery all fighting for OF playing time. Positioning baby
well one will probably be injured from that group so you need extras.

[EastFallowfield]

Machado has played 18 games for LA, I'm sure their OBP is at least 4/18s as good as ours!

[Lucky_Beagle]

I believe the Phillies streak of having an extra base hit is still intact. How many games is it up to now? Is it closing in on any records? I heard the announcers say something about it a week or so ago but haven't recently.

[Austinfan]

I have no idea how Grienke gets anyone out, with a FB from 89-91 MPH. I've been told that with that velocity, he's can't be more than a marginal 5th starter.

Pivetta really was bringing it with his four seamer, and his breaking balls were working well, but that's his problem going forward, he's a 3 pitch pitcher, two of which are really the same pitch at different speeds (85 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve with similar movement). This is not the time to experiment, but at some point he needs to develop a reliable 2 seamer with sink and'/or screwball movement, and a changeup to throw to LH hitters. That will give him something to fall back on when the breaking stuff isn't working as well.

[andyb]

I've been told that with that velocity, he's can't be more than a marginal 5th starter.

Though you have also been told that Grienke is exactly the type of pitcher who could thrive without great velocity because of the quality of his 4+ pitches and the way he changes speeds and commands all of them. Something also tells me that you said Grienke would be a waste of money if the Phillies had tried to acquire him a couple of years ago when Arizona had payroll issues and the price to get him would have been modest. Stuff is about more than velocity even if having more velocity is always better than not having it.

[allentown]

It doesn't really matter if some of us can't see how Greinke gets batters out. He has 7 WAR over the past 1-2/3 seasons and 18 WAR over the past 4-2/3 seasons, so whatever anyone's favorite stat to predict how a pitcher will fare, he has consistently fared very well. That is what matters. As I look at his stats, there is no surprise: 9.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over the past 1-2/3 season is VERY good. Velocity or not, whatever he is doing is clearly working for him.

[Austinfan]

Greinke is overpaid, He still has 3 years at $95M left after this season at age 35-37.
He'll probably have 11 WAR or so the first 3 years of this deal, but the last three?
The velocity on his FB has declined from 92.2 to 89.5 over these three years (despite the 0.5 uptick).
While he's compensated with a plus slider, curve and especially an improved changeup, any further decline in velocity will make those pitches less effective.

Greinke does show you can succeed with 3 good secondary pitches and a below standard FB.
But it took him to almost 30 to consistently throw the CB and change effectively.
Which is why I'd overpay any pitching coach who can teach the change to young pitchers.

[andyb]

I remember early in his career people would marvel that during a game Grienke threw a pitch at every velocity from 68 to 95. I don't think his effectiveness is diminished that much if he can go from 66 to 92 now. He was a guy that had 95 velocity when he was young - it just was far less important to him than it is for other pitches. A Pivetta, for instance, really needs his 95. I don't think he would be that effective if he topped out at 92. That does not mean we don't teach him to change speeds on his pitches to be more effective at lower velocities. It just means that his path to success now is a little more dependent on velocity than Grienke's.

There is nothing wrong with that. There are many paths to success.

[andyb]

But it took him to almost 30 to consistently throw the CB and change effectively.

He threw his curve ball and change and slider effectively when he was 22. You just have not been paying attention or reading scouting reports. Or watching him.

It also does not matter that much if he might be only worth 15-18 WAR over 6 years. That tells me he is a pretty consistent 3 WAR pitcher. They don't grow on trees. We get that you are unwilling to pay big money to acquire anyone. That just ignores the reality that there is quality at the top of the market that does not exist in the middle of the market. Arrieta is better than Chatwood plain and simple. Quality costs $$$.

[Austinfan]

You don't pay $35M a year for 3 WAR pitchers, especially on a long-term deal for an aging pitcher losing arm strength.
Which is why the market changed the last two years, the analytics showed it was a bad idea, and someone like Arrieta found himself looking at 3 year deals.
It's risk/reward, if the salary merely pays market value for the best outcome, but the team is left holding the bag if the player falls short, teams will reduce risk by refusing to give long-term deals.
No collusion, just teams listening to their analytic guys.

Changing speeds is an art form (Colon is the master), something our young pitchers will need to learn, but Nola already understands, throws his 2 seamer at 91-93, but pumps up high FBs at 95-96 a few times a game. Different movement and speed on your FBs makes it harder to time it up as a game progresses. Mix them with a great changeup and you hardly need a breaking ball.

[zambonir]

Cabrera replaces Florimon from the opening day roster and you have him, Hernandez, Franco, Crawford, Kingery, Hoskins, and Santana all fighting for IF playing time. Hoskins, Herrera, Williams, Altherr, Quinn, and Kingery all fighting for OF playing time. Positioning baby
well one will probably be injured from that group so you need extras.

Cabrera could be a replacement for Florimon but he's not as good defensively (and therefore not really as versatile) and you don't pay $10 million a year for that, even on a team with money to burn. No doubt, if players w/o a set position is a big part of the plan next year he could be in the mix but only after you've answered some of the other questions, such as Machado and Hernandez. He would, however, allow you to trade Hernandez. Then he'd just be insurance for Kingery and Franco.

[Philsmania]

Any chance Cabrera can play some outfield? No, not to start there but to make him a more flexible sub.