went to bed after 5. after skimming through all of the posts, seems like the at bat of the game was alfaro's. 1st and third no one out! i'm glad i didn't see it. When does ramos get here? an upgrade at the catcher's position is needed. alfaro doing ok for a young kid, but knapp seems to have really gone backward. is the seranthony magic starting to fade?gm
This is where Sabermetrics comes up short, anyone who watches the game knows that pitchers "choke" in the closer role, you can say it's no different that other high leverage situations, but few pitchers can handle the pressure.
Good Neris can, 20 straight saves, bad Neris is scary.SD may be able to in 2-3 years, but there's a reason most closers start out as set-up men, it gets them used to the pressure - a lot to ask of a rookie.
Except Seranthony gave up the lead the day before in a setup role too
It seems much more that Dominguez has lost a little life or movement on his fastball, and bite on his slider. The slider has not been a "wipeout" slider lately, more a change in speeds that is not as effective.
Remember Dominguez has been a fragile arm his entire career. He is now being used differently and more heavily than our other relievers.
Given his history as a starter I wonder if the team should keep using him for 6 outs, but decrease his number of outings by far. No repeat outings without an off day. The daily use might be what is robbing him of that extra 5% of stuff he needs to be great.
Per mlb.com, Dominguez in his last seven games: 0-1, 7.11 ERA, 7 G, 3 S, 2 BS, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, 2.05 WHIP
Yeah, he's hit a rough patch. Hopefully, just that and not him getting tired from overuse or hitting a "rookie wall".
I agree with the comment about his slider. It simply has lost its bite. It kind of hangs. If he is going ot be a 2 pitch power reliever, then I think in the off-season the Phils have to get to work with their pitching, video and computer crews to see what adjustments SD needs to make to assure that when he throws it, it is a nasty wipe out slider 99% of the time. The kid is young and seems to be coachable. He needs to make adjustments that probably will require off season work. I also think his performance suggest the need to look for a real "seasoned" closer in the off-season (Hello Zack Britton if you can come all the way back form your surgery). But for this year, SD's inconsistency is going to mean more juggling by Kapler.
I think it is mostly a matter of Dominguez being over used. He may well not be the reliever to consistently use for more than one inning. It is somewhat surprising that they have used him that way when they have seemed so reluctant to use almost any late innings reliever in multiple innings per game. I thought that after the rough game for SD on Sunday, they would want to not use him on Monday.
I have to keep reminding myself that the Phillies have won 5 of the last 7 games, with the two loses being 13 and 14 inning games against good teams on the road. The sky is not falling.
The Athletic has a piece on this today. Key stat is the days of rest for SD:
Situation IP BB K ERA1+ days’ rest 33 5 41 0.820 days’ rest 7 1/3 8 11 9.82
Yesterday was 0 with a long flight to the West Coast in between. We need to remember that SD has NEVER been used like this before. It is only natural he is having some issues.
I do have to wonder if we are going to pay the price in September of pushing so many young pitchers past their previous walls.
If so, the saving grace may be guys we can bring up from LHV that month.
Well in that case I have to wonder if being forced to rely upon AAA pitchers in a pennant race is a "saving grace".
When the Iron Pigs start the playoffs, half of their pitchers will have been the ones who spent their entire season in Reading. We should call up Irvin and De Los Santos for sure. Even De Los Santos is way over his likely projected effective innings.
Irvin won't be Rule 5 eligible this year, so they might not want to burn the 40 man spot for him if they don't have to.
Pushing these young players to their limits is, pardon the cliche, a feature not a bug, because this season is still more about the future than the present. They made that obvious by not going all-in on Machado or adding a more experienced late-innings reliever. The youngsters will either surprise, fail and learn from it or give the front office reason to upgrade going forward.
They can use Suarez instead of Irvin. Seem to me not having Ramos remains less than ideal, but he'll be back soon enough. As will Neris.
Lots of waiver deals starting to happen too. If we think we need some more experienced innings we will add an arm (for money and a C level prospect).
True a 6th starter would not be hard to come by. A reliever upgrade, possibly not, unless a team falls out of the race or changes its mind on someone (who would also have to clear waivers).
But clearly, the occasional bad game aside, the bullpen managment has been working for the past five or six weeks. Seranthony's save percentage is not a big deal because it's a SSS; prior to Sunday he was 12/13, 92.3%. But the physical/usage issues are a real concern. They may not need a closer, but they do need him to be at his best. The league is ready for him now too.
Adding some combination of Neris, Rios, Thompson, and Ramos should ease overuse concerns. We really should not have to use relievers on back to back days in September too much if we don't want to and if other relievers start to fail in late inning situations then we are probably slipping back in the race anyway.
Dominguez is a bit of a special case because this is the first time he has ever relieved. Kapler just needs to shut down the back to back days for the moment.
As they say, adjustments and counteradjustments are always needed to maintain success at the ML level. To some extent, the league may be adjusting to Dominguez and he may now need to respond.
