GDT 8/31/22 Philadelphia Phillies (Falter) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Henry)

[andyb]

We all kind of get that Falter's fastball plays up because of his delivery. This is not new information and as others have said, it is another way to be deceptive to hitters who are not used to it.

The real question is whether he will fool major league hitters consistently with this after repeated exposure. He just has a mixed track record also at the major league level.

[Austinfan]

It's not a matter of "fooling" hitters, his pitches simply travel a shorter distance, providing a hitter less time to react, which is equivalent to throwing a couple MPH faster.

That alone doesn't make him a good pitcher, but it means his 92-93 FB is equivalent to a 94-95 FB from most pitchers. He's learning to throw the 2 seamer low and the 4 seamer up and in on RHs, and it's effective.
His slider, curve and changeup are below average right now and need to improve, and his command could be better.

But if you're talking 5th starter, Falter is probably there right now.
We've seen too many "6th starters" in that role, 5.00+ ERA guys who you just hope can get to 5 IP.
If you're talking 3rd starter, he has a way to go.

Only 99 SPs have thrown 100+ innings so far this season, 80 under 4.50 ERA, 9 of them between 4.50 and 5.00, 10 are 5.00+.
Last season, 115 SPs threw 100+ innings, 76 were under 4.50, 19 between 4.50 and 5.00, 20 were 5.00+.

So any pitcher who can throw 100+ IPs (20 or so starts or more), with an ERA under 5.00, has real value.
Because on average, there are only 3 of these guys per team.

[andyb]

You don't really need to lecture us on what extension means. We hear about it on TV every single time Falter pitches. At its heart though it is a form of deception in his delivery.

What you are not getting is that Falter is "different" enough to hitters that we really don't know if his stuff will play as well the second and third time around the league. Nobody is claiming that Falter doesn't have value. We just don't know if he is good enough to hand the 5th starter's job to next year. Falter has given up a huge number of home runs this year (13 in 57.1 IP). He has probably been lucky they did not come with many runners on base (which is a reason his FIP is 5.25 even though his ERA is better).

[Philsmania]

Bruce Ruffin in the '80's, Mike Grace in the '90's, Brandon Duckworth in the '00's, Vance Worley in the '10's.

I don't think Ruffin belongs on that list. Yes, his first season was the best of his career, but he racked up 10 WAR over 12 seasons.

He actually did become a serviceable relierver for the Rockies in the mid-'90's. And, Worley did have a couple of half-decent seasons.