GDT 8/23/22 Cincinnati Reds (Lodolo) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[julio]

Correa, Boegarts.

Correa, if he doesn't exercise his option. Bogaerts is signed through 2025.

[andyb]

Correa, if he doesn't exercise his option. Bogaerts is signed through 2025.

Both are widely expected (as in 99% likely) to opt out of their contracts absent injury. My comment was on what the market will likely look like.

[flyers19rw]

If the Phillies keep Segura, they are set at the MIF position at a reasonable price. It isn't as if Segura was putting up Didi numbers. He's quite productive at the plate and more than adequate in the field as well as being a good guy in the clubhouse. The money saved by keeping JS and not signing Turner, Correa or Swanson could be used to solidify the pitching staff with another top grade starter. It all depends where Dombrowski wants to invest salary.

[julio]

Correa, if he doesn't exercise his option. Bogaerts is signed through 2025.

Both are widely expected (as in 99% likely) to opt out of their contracts absent injury. My comment was on what the market will likely look like.

Gotcha. I didn't realize Bogaerts has an opt-out after this season.

[Philsmania]

If the Phillies keep Segura, they are set at the MIF position at a reasonable price. It isn't as if Segura was putting up Didi numbers. He's quite productive at the plate and more than adequate in the field as well as being a good guy in the clubhouse. The money saved by keeping JS and not signing Turner, Correa or Swanson could be used to solidify the pitching staff with another top grade starter. It all depends where Dombrowski wants to invest salary.

How disappointed would Harper be to not bring in his buddy Turner? However, he didn't seem to mope all that much when they didn't sign Kris Bryant this past winter.

The thing with Segura is yes, he is having a good season here in 2022. Can we count on him to have another one in 2023? it seems as if he's been somewhat up and down sincne we got him.

[zambonir]

Yup, those are the four major SS free agents I had in mind.

Money in 2023 shouldn't be an issue. Just by subtracting Segura and Didi you can afford Turner and still be able to sign a free agent starting pitcher (even two if you count bringing back one of the three departing guys) and restock the pen w/o going over the CBT.

The risk is more taking on yet another big multi-year deal with dead years - but that same risk would exist if you decided to shop at the high end of the pitching market.

Of course if they were willing to stay over the CBT, just do it all, including overpaying Segura on his existing option. But yes, his play is likely to decline, and you should be able to replace his 2.0 WAR at half the price (I don't think he gets back to his 2021 level. He also tends to be injured even if this year was more of a fluke.)

[julio]

The thing with Segura is yes, he is having a good season here in 2022. Can we count on him to have another one in 2023? it seems as if he's been somewhat up and down since we got him.

Segura's OPS+ the past 2+ seasons:

2020: 107
2021: 110
2022: 109

Now, Turner, Bogaerts, Correa have all been better hitters over this period than Segura, so it's reasonable to assume that adding any one of them to the middle infield would increase the overall offense - and not impact the club defensively in any negative way (I'm assuming that Stott would handle 2B as well as Segura, more or less).

On the other hand... Segura's club option is $17 million. Turner, Correa, Bogaerts...could cost literally twice that in 2023 (Correa's salary this season is $35 million). Exercising the option could cost $17-18 million less in 2023 than pursuing one of these SS options; that money could be invested in addressing a different need?

[andyb]

Who says "no" to a contract that is like 2/24? There are not many comps for 33-year-old second baseman that are over $10 million a year. Didi is actually a decent comp and he got $14 million a year for 2 years even though he was 2 years younger than Segura will be for his next contract. Didi was coming off a 120 OPS+ year (albeit in a shortened season but the performance was in line with Didi's pre-injury peak)

Nobody will offer Segura $17 million a year. The question is what he will accept, especially with the recent history of older 2B getting squeezed out of the market and being left with Cesar Hernandez type deals.

[zambonir]

It's not that Segura won't end up taking a cheaper one or two-year market rate contract, it's just that nine times out of 10 - I'm sure we could actually crunch the numbers if we wanted to find 100 examples - once the team declines to pick up an option (or make a tender) either they truly don't want the player back or the player is more inclined to take that lesser offer from a team that didn't just cost them money.

The recent examples are easy to come by: Cesar, Cutch, Neris (they let him leave as a free agent but had previously declines an option that kicked him back into his last arbitration year. Between that and not feeling like he was wanted back that badly, was easy to leave).

[andyb]

it's just that nine times out of 10 - I'm sure we could actually crunch the numbers if we wanted to find 100 examples - once the team declines to pick up an option (or make a tender) either they truly don't want the player back or the player is more inclined to take that lesser offer from a team that didn't just cost them money.

Are you sure? Most of the time the player's performance has declined. So rule all of those situations out. I bet there are far more situations of players re-signing than you indicate. The sample size is small though because the player has to still be good and useful to their team. Most of these situations get resolved before the option year with players accepting extensions that eliminate the option. That would be the scenario where the Phillies just extend Segura a year or two now.

Brett Gardner did this with the Yankees in 2021.

[zambonir]

Why rule out situations where the player has declined? I'd say Segura has declined. Consistent at the plate but defense likely down a tick, and WAR will be a lot lower this year due to missing so many games... but being injured still counts, as taking a long time to recover from injury is part of aging. We still had the same conversations about Cutch last year too.

I am also not including extensions. Only situations where the team actually kicks the player to the curb with a buyout. That's when the player tends not to want to come back.

Because the main discussion here was, could the Phillies keep Segura before they decide to sign a free agent SS, and I think the answer to that is still no. They are not going to extend him and then sign Turner (or any other big FA middle IF). The only scenario where Segura is back IMO is if they try and fail to sign one of those FAs, or, after reading the market, simply decide against, and then are back out shopping for a 2B and Segura is still there.

[andyb]

Most of the situations where a player has declined means they are not worthy of the contract. Since these options generally go to players worthy of expensive multi-year deals that means the player who has declined is now probably only a bench player.

It is actually rare where a player with an option like this has not declined at his age like Segura. Now the option is for an even higher salary. It is just a pretty unique situation.

It is probably less than 50-50 that Segura is back, but I would also put the odds at maybe 30%. Gibson being extended too is in that 30%-50% range (Eflin being lower than that). I think you are insinuating far less for Segura. The reality is the Phillies do not have a great alternative now. They might actually decide they don't want to spend $30 million for a shortstop. Segura could be the right fit for both sides for another year or two just like DIdi was a couple of years ago even though an option was not involved then.

I think you are tying too much emotion to options. They get picked up by clubs if the player is worth it. Segura is probably not worth $17 million though. The Phillies could also be the best way for Segura to keep making $10 million plus a year though.

[schillingfan]

Welcome. Keep posting!

[zambonir]

I mean, I agree in the end it is a business and players (and their agents) don't refuse to rejoin a team that declined their option if they're still paying the most money.

With Didi, they actually had exhausted all the alternatives. Not so here. There are plenty of alternatives. First of all the big-$ shortstops, all of whom would make the team better (whether they play 2B or SS). Secondly, just going with the same mix of average players that they managed to play .600+ baseball with during Segura's injury. Third, add a modest veteran type to that mix.

I think a lot of it really does depend on Harper. He tends to get what he wants. But there are many other unknowns (including Harper's own status for the first few months of the season and whether Dombrowksi would actually consider a more dramatic move involving the glut of DH types).

[BaseballCat]

To me the biggest question is whether Harper can ever play the field again without TJ surgery. We paid him to be in the field as we have too many DH types. I hope they don’t wait too long hoping it will heal with time. I pray it heals.

[flyers19rw]

One positive thing with Harper and TJ surgery is that it’s a different sort of recovery for a position player, especially an OF, than a pitcher. No one is looking for Harper to throw 95 for 100 pitches. He could even play LF for a while until his arm strength grew to the point where he could handle RF again.

[RolenRules]

Thank you!

[zambonir]

To me the biggest question is whether Harper can ever play the field again without TJ surgery.

He probably can't. He'll have the surgery as soon as they're eliminated and maybe miss a month or two. Don't see how they can afford to wait a month or two and risk him missing 3-4.

[xogfog]

Didn't they just do that? I think they are 9 games over .500 since Harper went out. I'm not saying they are better without him, but they are good enough to survive in a largely mediocre league until he returns.

[zambonir]

Right but they would want him to have the surgery ASAP and miss a month or two, not wait to see if he can avoid surgery, only to have him need it. He could miss anywhere from half to an entire season if that happens (depending on when he actually finally had it).

And hey, if he'd been healthy this whole time maybe we'd be in first place! Most of that deficit happened when the team stunk, but they also haven't been better than the two teams they are chasing since then.