I've noticed that as well. While some (most) is surely a bit of regression/slump, I've had to wonder if some is due to saddling himself with the expectation that he has to surrender 0-2 runs to give the team hopes of a win.
Not to take away from Wheeler's performance through July, but this team appears to have been built around the motto, "as the bats go, so goes the team." Wheeler, Nola, and Eflin are a solid front three, but after that... Anderson and Moore? Ride the Velasquez coaster again? 60 pitches from Howard? (Though in fairness, the Howard/Suarez combo was pretty effective for four or so starts. Just wasn't an effective long-term plan.)
The bullpen was improved over 2020, but still built too much around rebound hopefuls and inconsistent arms (that said given the acknowledgement that relievers come with some inconsistency as part of the package).
The defense shouts a bat-forward approach, particularly the infield. Bohm - Gregorious - Segura - Hoskins all have below-average to poor defensive skills for their positions. Center was a hole coming in, with no one standing out in spring training, but none really graded as anything above average defensively. McCutcheon's age has affected his ability a bit. Not terrible, not particularly good.
These deficiencies make it easier to surrender runs. The only way to counter it is for the bats to pick up the run differential. Injuries and general streakiness have impacted their ability to do so, but I think the margin of error for them to overcome the team's defensive shortfalls was tight to begin with. (Coming into today BBRef have the Phillies at a -0.2 Rdiff / game).
