GDT 8/16/24 Washington Nationals (Corbin) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa)

[kikutaro]

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	11	1
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	0

Final

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Washington Nationals

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alex Call RF	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	.367	.444	.506	.950
CJ Abrams SS	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.248	.322	.445	.767
James Wood LF	3	0	3	0	1	0	0	.289	.373	.450	.823
Andrés Chaparro DH	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.286	.375	.500	.875
Keibert Ruiz C	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.227	.260	.361	.621
Luis García Jr. 2B	4	1	2	0	0	1	0	.292	.328	.459	.787
Juan Yepez 1B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.293	.346	.443	.789
Nasim Nuñez PR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.273	.360	.273	.633
Ildemaro Vargas 1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.253	.306	.332	.638
José Tena 3B	3	0	2	1	1	1	0	.313	.353	.313	.666
Jacob Young CF	4	0	2	1	0	1	0	.254	.314	.327	.641
Patrick Corbin P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Jacob Barnes P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Robert Garcia P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Derek Law P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Kyle Finnegan P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber DH	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	.251	.380	.484	.864
Trea Turner SS	5	1	4	1	0	1	0	.309	.352	.475	.827
Bryce Harper 1B	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.281	.373	.538	.911
Alec Bohm 3B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.296	.350	.481	.831
Nick Castellanos RF	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	.247	.303	.417	.720
J.T. Realmuto C	3	0	1	1	1	1	0	.253	.314	.386	.700
Bryson Stott 2B	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	.234	.312	.345	.657
Weston Wilson LF	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	.325	.349	.650	.999
Brandon Marsh LF	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	.241	.318	.399	.717
Johan Rojas CF	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	.244	.284	.307	.591
Cal Stevenson PH	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.333	.429	.333	.762
Aaron Nola P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Matt Strahm P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Jeff Hoffman P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Carlos Estévez P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Washington Nationals

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Patrick Corbin	4.1	7	2	2	2	2	0	96-58	5.92
Jacob Barnes	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	21-13	3.44
Robert Garcia	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10-8	4.80
Derek Law	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12-8	2.85
Kyle Finnegan (L, 3-6)	0.0	3	1	1	1	0	0	17-9	3.67

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Aaron Nola	6.2	7	0	0	2	4	0	111-74	3.45
Matt Strahm (H, 12)	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	11-8	2.12
Jeff Hoffman (H, 17)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	11-9	1.92
Carlos Estévez (W, 2-4)(BS, 4)	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	0	27-19	2.53

[EastFallowfield]

Had 'em all the way, Harry!

My elder child and spouse went to the game tonight trying to have a better experience than the one they had in the first game in the Marlins series. Ended up working out ok

[bkeich]

Not exactly a clean win, but a win. Estevez has not been impressive at all, he needs to be moved back in the pecking order until he EARNS high leverage chances.

[phillychuck]

Carlos Estévez shows definitively how to vulture a win.

To be fair, coming into tonight, he had a 1.17 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Bad outing tonight, of course.

[zambonir]

The thrill of victory, the agony of relief.

[dicemen99]

I mean, he said he doesn't have a closer but that Estevez would get most of the 9th innings. Nothing wrong with it. Given how he pitched against the bottom of the order (albeit unluckily) would you have preferred he'd taken the tougher innings?

Alvarado is clearly still in the doghouse a little. You are right about the bottom of the order being a slot for him regardless of inning but do you think he wouldn't have walked one of those guys?

Getting lucky on the base paths now!

Good win! You can feel the tide turning.

No, I want our bullpen to be deployed situationally in high leverage situations, just like we were doing with great success before Esteves arrival.

I was very excited about his acquisition. Before the trade I had opined a few times on here that we were one good arm short of the 4 we needed and acquiring one would allow us to deploy Alvarado as he should be and lighten the load the big 3 were carrying.

Alvarado is pretty dominant against LHs and especially overpowering when not facing elite guys. That hasn't changed in two years, even with a rough spot or two. Rob knows that for sure. I know it sitting on my couch.

If we're going to change gears and operate with a closer, ok, that's his decision. I'll be second guessing it. I think Esteves is a great acquisition, but I'm not prepared to give him the ball no matter what every 9th in the postseason. I think that's a mistake.

[zambonir]

That wasn't necessarily high-leverage. Yeah, it was 2-0 in the 9th, but the gap between putting any old guy out there to get those hitters out versus an elite reliever isn't really that big. In either direction, clearly!

He hasn't been bad or extraordinary, but we also knew both his career and his first month this season showed a guy who could sink just as low as Alvarado or Seranthony (and we see how that's going for the latter guy now).

[zambonir]

If we're going to change gears and operate with a closer, ok, that's his decision. I'll be second guessing it. I think Esteves is a great acquisition, but I'm not prepared to give him the ball no matter what every 9th in the postseason. I think that's a mistake.

I would agree with that, i'm just not sure that's actually how it is. He's only been here two weeks and most of the other arms were struggling (which is also why he's here). We definitely don't know if that's how it is going to be in the postseason. Even Kimbrel didn't pitch in save situations in the post-season and he was just as definitely the closer without being proclaimed so last year.

[zambonir]

Thomson says the bullpen is a little thin right now which would seem to suggest some undisclosed injuries. Alvarado and Ruiz both should have been available even if the guys who pitched last night weren't.

[bkeich]

That wasn't necessarily high-leverage. Yeah, it was 2-0 in the 9th, but the gap between putting any old guy out there to get those hitters out versus an elite reliever isn't really that big. In either direction, clearly!

He hasn't been bad or extraordinary, but we also knew both his career and his first month this season showed a guy who could sink just as low as Alvarado or Seranthony (and we see how that's going for the latter guy now).

He has been pretty bad with the Phillies. 6 games, 4 of them he gave up a run (this is the only one that was 2 runs). Two of those were unearned extra inning runs. Still, 6 games, 4 bad outcomes. (One of the extra inning runs still resulted in a win).

I would not continue to use him like this until he gets a few “good games”. Nothing wrong with using him in less leverage. He isn’t such a great reliever that he automatically gets this respect.

Up 2-0 in the 9th is pretty much the definition of high leverage. I guess 1-0 would be more, but this certainly counts as high leverage, if not this then I don’t think the term is used. Sometimes you put “any old guy” out there in this situations for reliever load balancing, but most of the time you want your best guys in these situations and other guys in less stressful spots and hope they work their way up. Estevez needs to work his way up a little

[dicemen99]

If we're going to change gears and operate with a closer, ok, that's his decision. I'll be second guessing it. I think Esteves is a great acquisition, but I'm not prepared to give him the ball no matter what every 9th in the postseason. I think that's a mistake.

I would agree with that, i'm just not sure that's actually how it is. He's only been here two weeks and most of the other arms were struggling (which is also why he's here). We definitely don't know if that's how it is going to be in the postseason. Even Kimbrel didn't pitch in save situations in the post-season and he was just as definitely the closer without being proclaimed so last year.

I hope you're correct.

[LoneStarPhan]

Estevez gets the undeserved win tonight. Good to see this team not quit after blowing a 2 run lead in the ninth. Walk off with no outs in the ninth.

But they did leave the bases loaded. For a short time,I thought Turner might have hit that one out.

Good to win.

[Philsmania]

Glad we got the win but it looks like Dombrowski gets an F for his trade deadline performance.

[Sabin]

If the Phillies are 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position but only have two runs were they all really in scoring position?

Sounds like you're alluding to the Schwarber-on-second rule.

[BostonRoss]

Corbin leads the league in losses, going for his 4th straight year leading the league in losses.

I guess he escaped tonight.

Looks like there are two pitchers who led their leagues in losses four year in a row. The first was Pedro Ramos, who later pitched in six games for the 1967 Phillies. The second was Hall of Famer Phil Niekro--but he actually led the league in wins as well in one of those years!

[LoneStarPhan]

Glad we got the win but it looks like Dombrowski gets an F for his trade deadline performance.

TBD.

Some post season saves could change this.

[EastFallowfield]

[zambonir]

I really don't count 10th innings against any relievers and Estevez definitely got dinked in this game. He has not been bad. But he could be!

I think this also kind of speaks to to bkeich's feeling that 2-0 is high leverage. That is just something we think because years of overvaluing closers and the save statistic and the stress of the ninth makes us feel that way emotionally. Statistically, a two-run lead with zero outs and zero men on base in the top of the 9th has a 94.38 win percentage and a leverage index of medium. Three-run lead and that jumps to 97.79 and low leverage. Granted, those stats are based on historical data that involves a lot of very good ninth inning pitchers. But particularly given the guys who were coming to bat, that was not a high leverage spot.

Which is actually why it hurts all the more when a blown save happens, and is joyous when you are the team coming back. The pitching team with the lead has a huge advantage, even more than usual.

[Sabin]

I think this also kind of speaks to to bkeich's feeling that 2-0 is high leverage. That is just something we think because years of overvaluing closers and the save statistic and the stress of the ninth makes us feel that way emotionally.

In part, yes. But part of what makes a situation high leverage is the emotion the importance of the moment imparts. There's something to be said for what a team (or specifically its newly acquired RP) is feeling while trying to continue out of a month-long funk by closing out a 2-0 game at home against one of the worst teams in the league.

[zambonir]

Yeah but funny how everyone is coming at it from a different perspective. To bkeich the spot was too high-leverage for Estevez because he hasn't been that good, To you it was appropriately high-leverage for our shiny new reliever. To dice it was perfectly low-leverage (and a more favorable match-up) for the struggling Alvarado. And your more intangible idea of the emotion and a confidence-booster might have suited either guy.

Any which way, the two best pitchers already pitched the correct innings (and Strahm had the hardest job). Just still not sure if Alvarado is still in the doghouse or a little sore. The fact that they just called up another lefty (theoretically bumping Banks to a shorter or later role) doesn't tell us either way I guess.