Bill Baer on bunting and last night's game. He goes on to outline six other times Thomson has called for the bunt in the last three weeks (all of which reduced the run expetancy). I reckon it is coming from a lack of confidence in his bench players (all the bunters have been Rojas, Stubbs or Cave). And perhaps the big bats too.
Using this run expectancy chart from Baseball Prospectus (data is from 2019, the last year they updated), we see that with runners on first and third with nobody out, 1.76 runs are expected. With runners on second and third and one out, 1.37 runs are expected. Thus, the Rojas bunt reduced the Philliesâ run-scoring potential by nearly half a run. Even in the context of one play in one game, thatâs meaningful. Those sub-optimal decisions quickly add up over the course of a series, a week, a month, a season. And theyâll matter a lot more in the playoffs.
âBut Bill,â one might say, âRojas is a rookie who doesnât hit for much power. Having him move an additional runner into scoring position for Kyle Schwarber is smart!â
Moving Cave up to second base would only matter for a single, since he would score on an overwhelming majority of doubles, as well as a triple, or home run. Schwarber is hitting .180 on the season and only 35 of his 79 hits (44.3%) have been singles. Of the Phillies with at least 100 plate appearances this season, Schwarberâs singles percentage is by far the lowest. Realmuto has the second-lowest singles rate at 51.6%. The most likely outcomes for Schwarber in that at-bat were strikeout, fly out, walk, and homer, none of which are aided by having Cave on second rather than first.
