GDT 8/11/24 Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly, M)

[zambonir]

The W-L record the broadcast mentioned was 24-30, after a historic start. Not great, but not a disaster. I'm glad it's still August and not September, they have time. And the playoffs are a blank slate anyway. Play like they have against the Dodgers and they're fine. Play like they do against Arizona, not so much. What that might mean against the Mets or Braves, dunno.

My fear was always that this team would win 108 games and still lose in the NLDS. At least right now that would not be as much of a shocker.

But man, what a leader that Whit Merrifield must have been!

[zambonir]

Rolling heads never works anyway. See August of 2019. In this case, as noted, the team is actually still in the catbird seat. That team was a true mess.

Certainly some change would come if they blow the division and/or don't make it to at least the NLCS again.

[Philsmania]

Despite being 8-17 in the last 25 games, the Phillies are still tied for the best record in the NL and only a half game behind the Orioles and Yankees for the best record in baseball. Looking across the baseball, the only really hot Postseason contenders right now are the Diamondbacks and Padres in the NL (both 8-2 in the last 10) and Astros in the AL (7-3 in the last 10). While the Phillies went 4-6 on their trip, they picked up a game on the Braves in the division and stood pat with the Mets.

The Phillies probably are not as good as they were through July 12 (61-32 .655, 106 win pace) but there's no way they are as bad as they've been since then (8-17 .320, 51 win pace).

[Philsmania]

Really looks like some key players on offense (Turner and Harper) have been playing hurt much of the year and avoiding 100% sprints. Plus the pitching is hitting a bit of a wall. Some of the younger pitchers like Sanchez and Suarez are up against new inning limits and not as good as they were earlier. Nola and Wheeler have also been inconsistent.

These are all solvable problems, though the team is probably not as good as they played in the first half. Most teams have issues so getting key players right by September is still the priority. Frankly if they can get some innings from Walker this week it might go a long way to easing everyone's trepidation. There is probably not much confidence in Allard and Phillips, so getting positive innings from another trusted source would be a good thing.

I remember in 1993 how the Phillies pitchers seemed to hit a dead-arm stretch from mid-June to mid-July and got hit around good. It got to a point where after a blowout loss the Cardinals, Daulton publicly called Schilling out (though not by name). They put it behind them, however.

Suarez's injury may actually help, in a way since he will have less mileage on him come September and October.

[zambonir]

I would have accepted a 4-6 road trip at the start of it (was really expecting 3-7). Obviously after the three straight wins it was natural to want more but in addition to the possibility that Arizona gives us trouble, the wear of the road trip itself probably caught up with them.

And while the Phillies went 4-6 the Braves went 3-7 and the Mets 4-6. Dodgers and Brewers 6-4. I'm sure none of these teams looked pretty in their losses either, though that also depends whether you find an unwinnable game uglier than blowing a game you should have won.

It would still take an epic swoon - and a hot streak the other two teams might not have in them - for the division to be in play. But they will be tested for the rest of August and the first half of September (if the Mets are close). Hopefully they will bank a few at the Bank first against the two lesser teams.

Personally, if I am Taijuan Walker I still see an opportunity to beat out Sanchez for a playoff start. No reason to think he's actually capable of doing that at the moment, but he has a chance to show otherwise, and the bar (Sanchez's performance away from CBP) isn't that high. As it is Sanchez will either be out of the pen or off the roster in the NLDS (though depending how things proceed, they could also line him up to start a home game in the NLCS which would help).

[Philsmania]

I would have accepted a 4-6 road trip at the start of it (was really expecting 3-7). Obviously after the three straight wins it was natural to want more but in addition to the possibility that Arizona gives us trouble, the wear of the road trip itself probably caught up with them.

And while the Phillies went 4-6 the Braves went 3-7 and the Mets 4-6. Dodgers and Brewers 6-4. I'm sure none of these teams looked pretty in their losses either, though that also depends whether you find an unwinnable game uglier than blowing a game you should have won.

It would still take an epic swoon - and a hot streak the other two teams might not have in them - for the division to be in play. But they will be tested for the rest of August and the first half of September (if the Mets are close). Hopefully they will bank a few at the Bank first against the two lesser teams.

Personally, if I am Taijuan Walker I still see an opportunity to beat out Sanchez for a playoff start. No reason to think he's actually capable of doing that at the moment, but he has a chance to show otherwise, and the bar (Sanchez's performance away from CBP) isn't that high. As it is Sanchez will either be out of the pen or off the roster in the NLDS (though depending how things proceed, they could also line him up to start a home game in the NLCS which would help).

I've never been sold on the Mets. Not surprised they are starting to level off and never thought Grimmace was some kind of talisman.

[zambonir]

Either way, they are not currently the Phillies' problem, or rather, the Phillies aren't their problem. They are both battling for the last playoff spot, having tanked the #4 that seemed so likely for ATL a month ago, and trying to fend off SF and STL.

Once you're in anyone can win that WC series though. Or any series, as we well know. The #6 team won the NLCS each of the last two seasons.

Right now we'd draw Arizona or San Diego in the NLDS. One or the other of them is probably going to stay in that bracket, if not both (depends on the Braves or Mets or anyone else).

[Philsmania]

With memories of 2021 still relatively fresh, I keep expecting the Braves to explode, get hot and blow past us. I am beginning to think that it's not going to happen.

[VoteForKalas]

I'm confident the Braves will make a run at us before the regular season ends. I do not believe they will catch or pass us, but it would be nice if the Phillies got the lead back up to 10 in these series vs the Marlins and Nats.

The playoffs, as we all know, are wide open. SD or AZ would give us a true test as both are very good teams that loaded up even more at the deadline.

Bottom line is the Phillies need to play more consistently game to game and series to series like they were in the first half.

Our lineup is very SO heavy and reliant on the HR. We have to hope they can be more disciplined and help each other out.

Our pitching needs some reinforcements and getting Walker, Turnbull and Suarez back will be very helpful. Using the 6 man rotation and testing guys in different pen roles should pay off for us down the stretch and into October Madness.

[zambonir]

I guess it depends how you define "make a run." Unless the Phillies haven't hit bottom and lose to the Braves themselves four or five times in doing so I don't think it's ever gonna get nerve-wracking.

And, the offense is still getting guys on base. That's frustrating when they go 0-8 with RISP but get those eight baserunners next time and two of them will probably score. These last three games in AZ were so crushing because they'd just won three straight before that. Had it been a collective seven-game series I guess they lose it (since they lost the one in LA too).

It's been a little bit of everything for sure. Injuries, offense, rotation, bullpen. And an unstable roster/clubhouse pretty much since London (first with the injuries and then with the various moves and trades. Hard to believe Walker was still in the rotation back then, and that Dahl was the shiny new toy).

[zambonir]

Meanwhile the Braves still have four in SF and three in Anaheim before we see them so so this week really is an opportunity to pick back up that game or two.