GDT 7/23/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) @ Detroit Tigers (Boyd)

[Patchmk88]

Thanks. Something to play with before bed tonight.

[zambonir]

I honestly think it has to do with the major league approach out in by our major league staff (this May bleed over into the minors of course). Segura, Realmuto, and Harper all started off great this year (as did a lot of players). However, after about a month with our guys instructions they all fell off the map (Harper has recovered). Players like Crawford and Santana have gone to other major league staffs and gotten better (Santana had one of his worse years with the Phillies). This is pretty substantial evidence that something is wrong with our approach at the plate.

I think you wildly overestimate both the impact of the coaching staff, and how much instruction they actually get once the season has begun. If they were great in April that likely means they got excellent instruction in spring training, and far more instruction in spring training then they get during the season. If major changes were really being made it would have happened then. You don't go through two months of spring training with a new batting coach, then forget everything in April and do great, then suddenly start doing what he wants in May and stink.

For sure it's Mallee's job to try and unlock some power and get these guys to make adjustments but there isn't really any evidence (i.e. correlation is not causation) that it's the approach. Segura has been injured most of the season clearly (re-occuring now). Santana obviously was more comfortable in Cleveland and the AL, but no telling if he wouldn't have been just as good here if he'd stayed. Crawford hasn't really done anything yet, plus if he was healthy and had started this season in AAA he could be doing the exact same thing here.

Firing the hitting coach just to send a message if it won't actually fix anything isn't any way to run a team. What if it makes things worse? What if the players like him?

It is still surprising to me that there wasn't more of a CBP effect but then, we've always known that was overrated too (unless you are a Mets announcer).

[Patchmk88]

You say I’m overestimating the effect of our staff in our players but I say you are underestimating the approach at the plate that they are trying to push with our players. Their is too much correlation and drop off in stats of players when they come here and increase of stats with players when they leave.

The results are in the pudding. Players on this team are performing below their career norms. The team as a whole ranks towards the bottom of many offensive categories.

Someone needs to be held accountable for this. Not sure if it is the from office or the coaching staff. But when all of this is happening at the same time, I seriously doubt it is just bad luck.

[julio]

Their is too much correlation and drop off in stats of players when they come here and increase of stats with players when they leave.

Have you actually tested this - not anecdotally, not with "eyeballs," by by systematically looking at the entire population of players who have come to, or gone from, the Phillies? Over what period of time?

Beyond that - even if there is positive correlation (which isn't evident to me at this point), it's a classic rule of statistics that "correlation does not prove causation."

[Patchmk88]

Well of course correlation doesn’t equal causation, but it does point to the probability of causation being higher. One day when I have more free time on my hand I may take up this project and see what it turns up.

All I know is that the start players that have come over here via trade or free agent signing have had some of their worst offensive seasons with the Phillies.

Of their past 5 offensive seasons here is where the following big acquisitions season(s) with the Phillies would rank in terms of OPS+ (I can go look at other stats too and am guessing I’ll find a similar result):

Harper’s current season is 4th out of the last 5.
Segura’s current season is 4th out of the last 5.
Realmuto’s current season is 5th out of the last 5.
Santana’s last season was 4th out of the last 5. (2nd smallest of his career behind the 2015 season).

As for current members:

Hernandez’s OPS+ has dropped the past two seasons after reaching highs in the two seasons before Kapler was manager.

Maikel’s has actually improved, but he is bounced in and out of the lineup a lot these past couple of seasons.

Williams and Hoskins OPS+ has dropped from their one year without Kapler and staff. However, Rhys obviously had a SS size his rookie year and Williams has been in and out of the lineup the past two years.

Kingery has obviously improved this year but his only two seasons were under Kapler (maybe that’s the key ).

Obviously we can’t conclude that this is correlated to our coaching staff and their hitting approach, but if something like this happened in my department at work, I would get fired.

[zambonir]

I think you are forgetting that most of these players are getting older. Only Harper and Hoskins are not at/past the greatest peak age. While the Phillies have gambled otherwise with their checkbook, they may not ever be as good as they were in past seasons. (More likely, they will have a few great ones and a few good ones and a few less okay ones over the next 5-6 years).

Plus Segura is hurt. I wouldn't make much of Franco (simply not a consistent player under any staff) or Williams (SSS).

And bad luck and normal slumps are as compelling an explanation as any. If McCutchen was still playing and they had a consistent CF and 3B bat the struggles wouldn't feel like such a cluster. Different players step up (and have stepped up) at different times. In the end most players make their own adjustments. Harper's slump wasn't on Mallee and neither is his hot streak. A hitting coach can help/give advice/see things that others can't but there are so many factors overall.

At your work, how would someone get fired if the team was on pace to exceed the previous year's sales goals (I mean, I don't know what you do) and was on pace to finish as one of the top 5 companies in the field but one particular department could do better? Would they really fire someone in the middle of the fiscal year, or see how things finished up with a bigger picture?

[Patchmk88]

My company would sure as ■■■■ fire a department head that ranked near the bottom of the market in his sector and had talent acquisitions that were supposed to improve his results. The result as a whole show us better than last year but that’s after adding what is considered to be significant talent. A deeper look at the results show that we have been lucky because our run differential is that of a sub .500 team.

Your argument of players getting older doesn’t really hold up with me either. Our core players are all below 30 and should be in there primes now not all having seasons that rank near the bottom of their past 4 or 5.

I’m being hypocritical here because I just don’t like the way our coaching staff has handled a lot of things, so I’m probably overly negative when I talk about them. However, there is a group of fans on here that seem to ignore and push aside the stats, which are anything but rosey. In my previous posts I listed all of the players that have played regularly under Kapler the past two years and all but two are having bad seasons compared to their recent history.

[mdougherty12]

I think you're overestimating the effect of coaches, good or bad, on player performance. I really don't think established players, like Harper and Realmuto, are changing their approach at the plate significantly based on any particular hitting coach.

[DurhamBull]

I think you're overestimating the effect of coaches, good or bad, on player performance. I really don't think established players, like Harper and Realmuto, are changing their approach at the plate significantly based on any particular hitting coach.

I'm really curious about this. There are many variations on employer/employee relationships, and I don't know how it typically works in baseball, let alone what relationship the Phils (or any other team) have with particular players. If the Phils (coaches, manager, whatever) say to e.g. Harper, "your job is to be patient at the plate" and Harper thinks, "To heck with that, I've always thrived on being aggressive", how much is he beholden to obey his employer?

Or if they want him to be aggressive and he wants to be patient, or to generate more or less lift angle, to pull the ball less often, etc. I'm sure an established star like Harper is given more leeway to follow his own approach, but how much advice does he want and get from others, and how much does he want to/have to follow it?

I'm 30+ years into my career (not sports) and I still get advice from peers, and I learn from people younger and older than me.

I would think the influence of coaches would vary quite a lot from player to player. Some will want to chart their own course and others will be very receptive to advice from those whom they respect. That's JMHO, though.

[zambonir]

Not to mention small samples, BABIP, and differences (like his SLG this year vs. last year) that aren't meaningful even if the numbers are lower. You can't talk about "the stats" generically. And players who are 29, while still very productive, actually are in decline. 27 is the traditional peak, in the broadest sense. Every player is different of course.

The worst month Harper has had in the last two season was June of 2018, though he also hasn't hit the same highs this year. But the story of his season isn't written yet. And the worst things about him this year (low BA, high K rate, dramatically reduced power) were already happening last year.