GDT 6/3/22 Los Angeles Angels (Silseth) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin)

[allentown]

Problem with Nola is arm strength, he seems to lose it around the 6th inning.
That reduces his value and raises questions about how well he'll age.

With Eflin, the knee is the concern, you just can't afford to give him a long-term deal given the other albatross contracts that this team could be carrying over the next few seasons.

The Phillies are going to need pitching going forward. They know Nola and their physical condition. So what if Nola can only go 6. That's stand nowadays. Both Nola and Eflin are younger than most FA pitchers. It is them or try our luck on the market. We've done well, if costly, on FA pitchers like Wheeler, Lee, and Halladay and gotten bargains on a very few guys, like Gibson, but we've also had busts -- guys that I doubt were healthy on the day we signed them. So... unless we are willing to shell out for a top of the line guy, like Wheeler (which I know you aren't) then these two are relatively young FA pitchers: 2023 is Eflin's age 29 season, 2024 is Nola's age 31 season. They are relatively good bets for a number of years at those ages -- I very well may not be willing to bet the number of years they demand, but 3 year extensions are ok with me. I don't think we will have a good starter available from the farm in 2023. Probably Painter, Abel, or McGarry in 2024. But we lose Gibson for sure. Unless we're planning to tank, we need to sign 3 pitchers for 2024 -- Nola and Eflin are reasonable choices for two of those slots. If the objective is to tank, then sure, you can find two cheap place holders who will aid the tank. I doubt the team wants to do that.

[zambonir]

Well, the picture will get clear after they trade one of Painter, Abel or McGarry for a controllable veteran starter

I think Eflin is signable. My gut feeling is Nola will leave. He's been a perfectly good Phillies guy who likes playing here, and both sides got what they wanted out of his current contract but I gotta think he'd rather play in a market where he can park his RV more easily.

[Austinfan]

I liked the Wheeler signing b/c he had as much upside as downside and wasn't being paid coming off a peak season - those are the deals you look for, not someone who is getting paid for past performance with only downside risk. Which is why the Arrieta signing was a bad move the day it was signed.

Nola scares me because his limited velocity means command is essential, but his limited arm strength may mean his command will deteriorate as he ages. When a pitcher tires, usually command goes first, then velo.

Eflin all comes down to the knee, because otherwise he has the body and arm of an innings eater, especially now that he's pitching the way he should, riding the 2 seamer and using the 4 seamer as a "show me" pitch.

[andyb]

Paying Nola $20 million a year for 5 years just seems a better bet than paying Eflin $12-$14 million for 3-4. Nola gets left in a bit too much sometimes but that is on the manager as much as anyone. He is among the 5 most durable pitchers in baseball and he has not really been abused other than that durability. Eflin seems more of a candidate to fall apart physically.

If the price on Nola went too much higher it would be a question of whether it was too much, but the same is true of any free agent. We just need to hope we get a couple of legit pitchers out of Abel and Painter. No guarantee but very possible.

[bkox]

Friday night's game was the first time in franchise history that the Phillies hit 5 HR and got 8 shutout innings from their starter in the same game

— Paul ( @paul_boye ) June 4, 2022

[zambonir]

Does the data actually say Nola is particularly less "strong" after six innings (or the third time through) than similar pitchers? He's gone 7 innings in four of his 11 starts, plus one complete game. At the end of the day, yeah, we remember some bad starts and rough innings, but three of them were at the beginning of the season (and the Phillies also scored zero runs in his remaining two April starts). Even with those he's having an excellent statistical season (WAR, WHIP, ERA, FIP) that looks more like a #2 than a #4 to me. And that costs what it costs.

[andyb]

This year Nola is pretty bad the 3rd time around (916 OPS). Last year was 825 (though remember that 3rd time around will often only be the top of the lineup as Nola does not get to the bottom the 3rd time around.

Is it possible Nola should be limited to 5 or 6 innings and twice around the lineup? Yes. Does that make him unique? Not really. It could also be pitch calling issues, though most likely he is like any other pitcher who is pretty good for 80-90 pitches but shaky after that.

Nola has been durable and consistent. If he is only an 180-inning pitcher versus a 200-inning pitcher it detracts from his value. But we are talking low $20s per year. If we are talking closer to $30 million a year then the price is too high.

Historically Nola has been better the 3rd time around than the last couple of years, though we might be seeing a DH effect going on. Previously there would be at least 2 weak at bats by a pitcher. Now a DH. So going deeper is a bit more difficult now.

[bkox]

Career OPS against in innings 7-9:

Nola: .738
Wheeler: .784

Facing an opponent 3rd time in a game:

Nola: .736
Wheeler: .773

Pitch count 75-100

Nola: .747
wheeler: .684

Nola does seem to hit a wall based on pitch count.

Another interesting Nola stat:

4 days rest:
OPS against: .704
5 days rest: .628