21 New York Yankees (Taillon) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez)

donaldorc 2021-06-13 00:18:28 UTC #121

Second straight walk-off hit by Segura.

bkox 2021-06-13 00:24:02 UTC #122

First time in Aroldis Chapman’s career he’s allowed walkoff hits in 2 regular-season appearances in a row.

Feel free to apply your own ghost runner asterisk.
— Jayson Stark ( @jaysonst ) June 13, 2021

zambonir 2021-06-13 00:39:44 UTC #123

The highlight reel of the last time the Phillies had three straight walk-off wins was painful. 2013, involving Michael Young, Dom Brown and Cody Asche (plus Chase).

To me a great closer is a finishing touch on a team trying to get from 87 wins to 90, or from playoff team to playoff series winner (and even then the closer loses innings to the top starters when things get to the end). It's true the Phillies can't afford these blown saves, but it's not actually the thing that needs to be - or even can be - fixed.

Today the offense and the middle relief did their jobs, and so did Vince, but the only way this team is really going anywhere it if they can lower the number of saves needed in the first place, whether they are one-run or three-run.

Lucky_Beagle 2021-06-13 00:46:29 UTC #124

Please define "did their job" was Coonrod the only middle relief pitcher? Then I guess I run ni 2 innings might not be too bad since the same logic gets a starter the "quality" start.

If middle relief included the 8th inning then giving up 2 runs in 3 innings isn't good by my standard regardless of the situation.

bkox 2021-06-13 00:48:18 UTC #125

It was the first run Suarez has given up in 16 and 2/3 innings this year. We cant expect perfection

zambonir 2021-06-13 01:00:20 UTC #126

I mean, if you want to blame Coonrod and Suarez for Hector failing in a save situation I guess that's true as far as it goes, but I'm pretty sure the definition of the job is to not give up a lead. They did not.

And yes, 1 run in two relief innings is a good performance, and Suarez was making his first appearance in a new role (but I still call that "middle relief, I guess you were counting him as "set-up"?)

Sabin 2021-06-13 01:04:02 UTC #127

Though I understand where you're coming from, I don't necessarily agree. If you want to fix 'lowering the number of save situations', you're talking about potentially upgrading the play of a number of players, by the bat or in the field (or both). In upgrading your closer, you're focusing on one. Longer term, sure - I'd want a quality rotation and lineup before I'd prioritize a closer, but if the PTB are pushing everything for win now, having a sub-70% closer could be a liability. A team could conceivably fix that issue now, while still putting the blocks in place to get to 87+ wins. I guess the scripting of in what order you put the players in place isn't as absolute to me (though I understand finding a low cost, high efficiency closer that doesn't muddle with the acquiring the rest is easily said...).

Also, I know you referenced an article from today (that I didn't read) upthread, but I'm not understanding your numbers stating that Neris is 'basically an 82%'... can you clarify to what that percentage is attached?

zambonir 2021-06-13 01:50:48 UTC #128

I didn't check the numbers but I was thinking of Dombrowski's quote, I guess I exaggerated it slightly. If he can go another month between blown saves - as he just did - he'll probably get there.

I don't know if anyone posted it in full.

“He has closed three-quarters [of his save opportunities],” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Friday morning. “A good league average is about 80%, so he’s right at the verge of that and was there before [Thursday]. He has pitched very well for us, really. That’s the life of a closer and they’ve been living it forever. Every game they come into is close, right?”

In Neris’ 23 appearances besides his three blown saves, he has allowed two earned runs on 12 hits in 22 1/3 innings for a 0.81 ERA. Neris’ ERA among closers who have pitched at least 20 innings this season ranked 10th through Thursday’s games and his .189 batting average against was 13th.

It just seems telling to me that while the Phillies have devoted time and resources to improving the bullpen, three different GMs and managers haven't truly prioritized the closer the position, and each attempt they've made to bring in someone better than Hector, and/or someone with closing experience, has failed (Robertson, Workman, Bradley), along with losing Seranthony to injury (and who knows if he would have completed the journey). I think if they were an actual contending team the priorities would be different - which is not to say they couldn't still fail. They've missed on a few guys they could have had but also got lucky on some they might have.

I do think Hector's consistency is underrated. You know exactly what he is, and sometimes that stinks, but he also shows up for work every year, which in some ways is just as valuable as a great closer who is either injured or terrible every other year (though Hector did have one bad season).

DurhamBull 2021-06-13 02:05:55 UTC #129

I think it was a great win. VV had a decent outing and the bats showed up. No, they weren't perfect, but the players picked each other up to get the victory. That's why it's a team sport.

LoneStarPhan 2021-06-13 02:36:48 UTC #130

Three walk off wins in a row. It's hard to be negative when the team wins.

Of course there were things we didn't like to see. The Yankees scored 7 runs which generally suggests the pitching was not very good today. The Phillies blew a 5 run lead and although they scored runs today, they had numerous chances to score more. But winning the game is job one and today, the Phillies were successful.

Neris has been a successful relief pitcher for the Phillies with extensive time as the closer. Yes, he has given up more key home runs to let a team off the hook than I would like to see. I'd like to see a perfect closer, but that is something rare to see. Lidge in 2008 was something that we cannot expect again. Yes, I was upset that Neris, after getting the first out, walked two hitters before the home run. With a 3 run lead and needing 3 outs, the home run is not important if there is no runners on base. Walking two to allow the home run to tie the game is something that I don't want to see from any pitcher, and especially not from the closer.

The 2021 Phillies have flaws but they are back at .500 and they are not out of the NL East race by any means. The Mets have impressed but they can be over taken.

schillingfan 2021-06-13 05:09:48 UTC #131

Geirardi said in his presser that Nevis is still the closer and They need to stop the walks. After the home run he threw strikes.

Austinfan 2021-06-13 05:18:43 UTC #132

Bradley was throwing 94-95, seems he may be back.

Sabin 2021-06-15 03:56:46 UTC #133

Thanks, Z. I hadn't gotten a chance to read that. While I agree with a few of the article's points, I wouldn't go so far as to say Neris has been "really good" - the author is using some selective statistics in his argument above. There are certainly worse closing situations to have, but again, if the organization wants to move north of 81 wins to a location closer to the 87-90 range, they'll need to move past slightly below-average performance in certain areas. If Neris saves 29 games at a 75% success rate over the course of a season, another closer with the same opportunities with an 85% success would potentially yield four more wins alone. (The team could still pull wins out of some of the blown saves, but then you have to question the wear on the BP/other players, and its effect on future games.)

zambonir 2021-06-15 06:07:04 UTC #134

My issue is that most fans focus too much on Neris, when it should be on roster-building philosophy and of course, the Phillies' own inability to develop or scout/acquire better options. Neris remains the closer largely by choice - no free agent has been explicitly signed to close, though many had "closing experience." And when they do consider it the alternatives keep failing or getting hurt (whether that's Seranthony or the 2019 and 2021 free agents or Workman). Of course it's also a choice because they can't afford to pay a relief pitcher what Segura makes. In that sense Hector also has to be recognized as a great value.

That article was definitely selective but it's just too early to know how good Hector is/might be this year. He was very good in 2019. He was just okay last year which still made him the best guy in the pen. 2018 was rough. But lots of elite closers alternate great, average and awful years too. Hector's never had a good a season as Giles but he hasn't has as bad of one (or injuries) either.

And we did indeed just win the two games he blew. From a pure WAR perspective, a great closer vs. an average one is probably only going to be worth 1 or 2 wins, no better or worse than a bad couple of months by a single position player or starting pitcher. It's just a lot easier to point at the closer when he does lose one.

Sabin 2021-06-15 18:56:03 UTC #135

Well, I'm a little skeptical on using WAR as a method of narrowing the performance gap between closers. While there are some complexities to the position and the individual pitcherr's performance (the impact on a club, say, when a blown save in the 9th turns out to be a win in the 12th, for example) I don't think WAR captures that. The potential difference in wins can be estimated in general terms more directly using save %, with colored added using the advanced pitching metrics of your choice.

That in mind, there are currently only four closers in the league with a save % worse than that of Neris. And while he did notably compile 28 saves in 2019, his 82.4% ranked 21st out of the 30 closers compiled by ESPN. You are, of course, correct in stating that we currently don't know how his numbers this season will ultimately pan out, he's approaching the halfway point in the season riding a 69.4% against a 77.9% career number. So it's reasonable to expect he'll improve during the second half of the season, but it will likely remain well below the league's average.

That all said, I'm not interested in indicting Neris - I really don't consider myself amongst the group of fans hyper-focused on him, or the position for that matter. For me, the focus is on the organization. If they are touting being a contending team, winning now, etc., they need to have the pieces in place to do so. And while they've tried - here, as you mentioned, former closers have been brought on while attempting to develop pitching talent in the minors - they've failed to do any better than below average. But that's not limited to the closer position - which I think we can agree is not the bedrock upon which a team builds a roster - they've not drafted or developed much of anything outside of Nola the past six years that can be considered above average. Makes the road to contention a tough one to hoe.