GDT 6/1/24 St. Louis Cardinals (Gray, So) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[phillychuck]

Bohm's RISP performance is still a very small sample size. Let's hope he keeps it up, but you'd need a few years of RISP vs non-RISP data to reach the conclusion he's an outlier.

[zambonir]

What's not an outlier is that he's a contact hitter and a batting average hitter. Still some luck involved there but you can't have BABIP luck (or hit 'em where they ain't with runners on) if you strike out.

If you just look at his career stats with men on base rather than RISP you have a pretty equal sample.

Men on base: 966 PAs, .304 BA, .797 OPS, 26 HRs, 265 RBIs
Bases empty: 1116 PAs, .260 BA, .703 OPS, 23 HRs/RBIs

RISP: 566 PAs, .325 BA, .821 OPS, 11 HRs, 223 RBIs

Of course he's a different hitter these last two years already, and the power is still not great, so if his hitting flags or his luck does run out... well, then you get what he was in May (.243 AB, .648 OPS).

I'd say he's actually a pretty similar guy to Nick Castellanos and Raul Ibanez, both completely subject to the ebbs and flows of BA without having big power or inherent on-base tendencies. Bohm is becoming more selective but he also doesn't have the slug.

[Austinfan]

One big difference, Bohm has learned to hit to all fields, Castellanos tries to pull outside pitches and often turns over breaking balls into GBs to SS. Bohm takes those pitches to RF or right CF.

[allentown]

566 PAs is not a small sample size. It is easily large enough to represent a very accurate estimate of where Bohm is at this stage of his campaign. At 2000 PAs with RISP, the numbers likely change, but that also is likely the result of Bohm aging, rather than inaccuracy in determining where he truly is today.

[zambonir]

It's still a small sample size in the same way one season is a small sample size. And in the same way even three years/180 innings of reliever data is a small sample size (whereas three years is generally the gold standard for position players and SPs).

But all of that just means there's no way to know if it's sustainable/projectable. Especially with so many other variables (including age, and RISP opportunities). So agreed it's still a thing that is indisputably happening that is part of his current production and this team's success. Even if some BABIP regression should be expected.

[phillychuck]

I remember Bill James saying that batting stats didn't stabilize until players had about three full seasons of performance. I don't know exactly what he meant by "stabilize", but it seems like he was at least indirectly referencing when sample size was no longer small.

[andyb]

Didn't Bill James say clutch hitters don't exist also?

The Bohm-Castellanos comparison is not perfect. Bohm has always had the approach of a singles hitter using all fields and Castellanos has always had more power (though it might have taken age and a juiced ball to convert many of those doubles into home runs). The comparison works in that they both don't walk a lot and are pretty dependent on a higher batting average (which might not be possible for Castellanos any more as he ages).

I still worry that Bohm regresses with BABIP luck into more of a league average hitter with defense that is really just average at best. His defense is better, but nowhere near as good as the announcers gush about it on TV. Of course Casty's defense is also nowhere near as good as they gush about on TV too.

[zambonir]

I don't necessarily think Bohm is clutch in the way we mythologize that, but it's hard to say Bryce Harper's not. I do think Bohm seems to have a skill set that gets busy with RISP home (and at the same time if they are just on first, he's not necessarily doing it). Whereas with Bryce it's the idea that he delivers in the biggest moments and welcomes the pressure, same way the best closers get mythologized.

Definitely not a precise comparison and Bohm is still a work in progress where Nick, even in the rosiest outcome, is past his peak.