18 Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta) @ Washington Nationals (Scherzer)

Philsmania 2018-05-06 21:19:40 UTC #101

Ramos should be closing now.

andyb 2018-05-06 21:23:09 UTC #102

Or Seranthony.

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-06 21:32:55 UTC #103

Two walks with one out in the 8th (could have been another but Taylor swung at ball four on 3-2 count to start the inning). Both score to cut Phillies lead from 3 to 1.

Ninth starts with ground ball to Hernandez in center field with runner safe on the long throw. Then the error on pickoff attempt puts runner on third with no outs. Neris follows with HBP and two walks to earn the blown save and then the hit to center wins it.

Neris was awful today. It is a shame that he negates what could have and should have been a fine win to win this series in Washington.

I have to question Kapler's use of relievers today. Why use 3 relievers in the 7th? Of course, had they not issued the walks in the 8th and 9th, we probably are celebrating a great win now. The walks have to be blamed on the pitchers. It is a shame to lose this game and cost Arrieta a win. He gave them 6 solid innings and they had a 3 run lead after 7 innings. Of course, every team has losses like this, but it doesn't make it any easier to take.

Franco goes 2 for 3 with a walk and a home run. Herrera goes 3 for 5 with a pair of doubles. The 4 runs looked like enough to win and would have been with the usual reliable performance from the bullpen. Unfortunately, today, the bullpen was not up to holding a 3 run lead over the final two innings. Neris clearly did not have it today.

Phillies blow their chance to move into first place tie in the NL East. They now stand at 18-15, back down to 3 over .500, in second place, a game behind the first place Braves.

Back home for the 4 game series against the now hot Giants, followed by 3 against the Mets. Let's hope for a winning home stand.

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-06 21:40:32 UTC #104

I will say that I have been pleased with the bullpen performance overall this season. I do not have great confidence in Neris as the closer but he has not blown that many saves since becoming the closer. Still, I think he is not the closer for the team when they become serious about winning and contending. I suspect they think this also.

In this series in DC, Phillies pitching gave up 7 runs in the first 2 innings of the series and 4 runs in the final 2 innings. In the 22 innings in between, they gave up only 2 runs. I like to see this as something to build on.

zambonir 2018-05-06 22:21:48 UTC #105

Neris just seems to have trouble with consistency, i.e. it is a physical or mechanical limitation that may or may not be fixable, or is even just a slump, rather than a matter of mythical ninth-inning shutdown ability. When he executes his best stuff he's fine, even if he puts a guy or two on base. I suspect that he could have blown any inning tonight, and Hunter and Garcia might have too.

It was not a bad series, for sure. If the standings looked different it would be a moral victory rather than a missed opportunity.

andyb 2018-05-06 22:39:41 UTC #106

I think the reality is that Neris is more good than great. And he is not ensconced in the closer's role on a team without an obvious closer. Look at his H/9. They went from 6.6 in 2016 to 8.2 in 2017. K rate went down a bit. FIP was 3.71 which might indicate he got a little lucky. The league learned on him. They lay off the splitter more. And the fastball is average at best even when he can command it.

Hunter today had equal results, but his stuff was much nastier and he go unlucky on some strike calls. Neris was not even close to the zone and was not great the previous outing either. Neris can be a decent pitcher but not be a great closer in the long term. As a closer you can't spot your opposition as much. And you need to have decent command to not put men on base or give up the long ball. A decent K rate is not the only thing you want out of a closer.

phillychuck 2018-05-06 23:35:26 UTC #107

kikutaro--your bot worked fine, Neris not so much...

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-07 06:26:01 UTC #108

I hope the Phillies return home tonight not happy with the blown chance to take the series with the Nats, but with the realization that they are good enough that they could have and should have won the series. I see many good things happening this season and I think the future is bright.

Austinfan 2018-05-07 11:57:42 UTC #109

Neris has 3 blown saves going back to last year's All Star break, you're not going to do much better, his problem is when the splitter isn't working, he's got issues, but that holds for every pitcher, when Lidge couldn't get his slider working . . .

Real problem came when Garcia just lost it, throwing 97 but couldn't command his FB, then Hunter came in and the same problem - nasty stuff is worthless if you can't throw strikes, and not down the middle of the plate.

But one game shouldn't negate a solid campaign by the bullpen so far after a shaky first week or so.

I'd point out that Ken Giles hasn't been the model of consistency in Houston - finding a closer isn't easy, and there's a psychological component, Ramos can look great in the 6th but might melt down in the 9th.Which is why the "closer by committee" rarely works.

andyb 2018-05-07 14:52:36 UTC #110

This is one of these cherry-picked stats that is kind of meaningless. Now he has 5 blown saves against 32 saves the last 2 seasons. That is not great.

But more importantly, he has been pretty hittable and has shown less control. In 36.1 IP after the All Star break he gave up 34 hits and 14 BBs. That is pretty pedestrian. Then this year he has given up 12 hits and 9 BBs in 13 IP. That is pretty bad.

Neris inherited the closer role when we had nobody else. He is not an above average closer and is probably a lesser pitcher than some others on the current staff. There is a big case for this team to go to a situational bullpen by committee. Let's use fresh arms and matchups in the 9th inning rather than anointing our 3rd or 4th best reliever as the closer.

zambonir 2018-05-07 15:09:15 UTC #111

Yeah I don't think you can have it both ways, it's true that all closers can be erratic but I also think there is no magic to pitching the 9th. Last night does show that if someone else was closing they might not be any better on any given night but Neris is demonstrably worse than his past performance so far.

Through his first 13 appearances, Neris’ 1.308 WHIP and 4.8 walks per 9 innings represented career highs in his four seasons. Only two other MLB closers this season have a worse BB/9 than Neris’: the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias and the Orioles’ Brad Brach.

What's disappointing to me is Kapler's really acting like any other manager, both in his overall usage and the way he stuck with the closer until it was a loss. Hunter did get the higher-leverage inning (at least line-up-wise) though. And Neshek, assuming he can actually pitch well, will change the picture some.

andyb 2018-05-07 15:15:43 UTC #112

Seranthony has a real shot to be our closer by the All Star break. Maybe easing a kid into the role would actually let the team try out the closer by committee for a month or two. It really seemed like Kapler made a special trip to LHV to look at Dominguez. I am sure he wanted to check out Quinn and Cozens too, but he made sure Dominguez was scheduled to pitch when he made his trip out there.

Like with Giles I do have some experience concerns with Dominguez. But handled correctly, a reliever's job can be pretty simple when they have quality stuff. From all reports Dominguez has both velocity AND movement. And he has walked 3 batters in 16 IP after 34 in 67 last year. It all seems to be coming together quickly for him. He is already on the 40-man roster too.

Philsmania 2018-05-07 16:22:27 UTC #113

What I want from a closer is a guy who doesn't let guys get on base. That's more important than how many strikeouts he gets. For all the criticism that Papelbon got, he was pretty lockdown with a 1.022 WHIP in four seasons here. Other Phillies closers always seem to engage in the high wire act--see McGraw in the 1980 postseason, Williams, Mesa, Lidge and now Neris. All of them always seem to let a lot of guys on base and live dangerously. Even Bedrosian in his Cy Young season let a fair number of baserunners on (1.226 WHIP).

Austinfan 2018-05-07 16:36:32 UTC #114

There are only a few consistent closers, McGraw was one, Lidge certainly was not, he was great one season and awful most of the time.

Eventually one of the kids will push Neris out, but which one?
Rios throws as hard as Seranthony, Ramos has the great breaking ball, and Aruno, don't know how he does it, but 27 straight outs is impressive.
Velasquez will be a candidate down the road if he can't consistently get to the 6th inning.
Anderson might be another whose future is in the pen.

Philsmania 2018-05-07 18:06:06 UTC #115

For all the talk of moving Velasquez to the bullpen, he's had mixed results in the first inning since coming to Philadelphia (and you kind of have to look at how he does in the first inning if you want to make a closer out of him).

2016 24 G/IP, 3.47 ERA, 24 H, 35 K, 10 BB, 1.416 WHIP, .267/.333/.400/.733 against
2017 15 G/IP, 6.00 ERA, 16 H, 17 K, 10 BB, 1.733 WHIP, .281/.388/.544/.932 against
2018 7 G/IP, 3.86 ERA, 8 H, 9 K, 0 BB, 1.142 WHIP, .286/.286/.536/.821 against.
Career (including time with Houston in 2015): 52.1 IP, 56 H, 68 K, 24 BB, 1.535 WHIP, .275/.348/.485/.833 against

This year's WHIP is good but the last two years weren't.

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-07 19:55:52 UTC #116

A quick look at the performance of the bullpen arms so far this season shows that Neris is not the Phillies' best reliever. He is not the second or third or fourth best either. Only Curtis, Milner, and Florimon have a higher WHIP among the none starters who have pitched for the Phillies so far this season. Neris has the 9th best WHIP of the non-starters used so far this season. Lacking a visual confirmation of his overwhelming great stuff, it seems clear that he is not the ideal pitcher for the closer role.

zambonir 2018-05-07 22:57:41 UTC #117

And it wasn't even LHV!

OTOH maybe the closer role isn't that important and it's okay to use your third or fourth-best pitcher there. Hunter actually pitched the higher-leverage situation last night. Unfortunately he failed too. And really, WHIP stats from a month of baseball are basically meaningless, though there's certainly no reason to think Neris is going to trend upwards in that department either.

The "highwire" closers all tend to be the same, high-strikeout pitchers who are also prone to walks. The two things go hand-in-hand (even more so today when batters also favor those outcomes). If you can strike out the side you can also walk two guys - so long as you don't also get hit too often or pitch in too many one-run games.

With Neris right now I think it's more his stuff, if he loses his splitter or loses confidence in it he becomes more hittable and his other pitches aren't good enough.

Not really defending Neris but given the way both relievers and hitters have evolved over the past 10 years I think the closer who doesn't put men on base and doesn't blow five or six saves a year is pretty rare. They exist obviously, but they also have to be developed, and Neris hasn't actually been closing for that long. So if closing really is important, the ability to pitch and be mentally tough in close meaningful games is actually a skill, he's still learning. If it's not, then sure, just put a different guy there, whether it's Dominguez or Neshek (neither of whom have major league closing experience, if I'm not mistaken).