GDT 5/3/23 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Stone)

[zambonir]

They were never the best team in the NL. They were the best team in an October tournament where weird stuff happens. Imagine if they'd lost Game 1 to St. Louis.

And not many people thought they were better this year (in the computers and sports books). Which is actually the good news. They are by no means out of it for the division or the 4 seed (especially post-Harper and Suarez) and who knows what July will bring, but one way or another they're probably as good as last year, i.e. they have a shot at being in the playoffs.

Kimbrel was pitching pretty well for the past three weeks. 8 straight with no runs, just three hits and 1 walk. That's relief pitching for you. Is he this year's Familia or this year's Knebel (who eventually contributed before getting hurt)? With Strahm coming back they will probably shift him to lower-leverage 9ths, and once he gets his 400th maybe none at all.

[bkox]

It could be worse.. The Mets got swept in a DH by the Tigers

[zambonir]

It was certainly not a pretty stretch. Phils now 6.5 out from the Braves. Was 3.5 before the four losses. But sure, the Mets aren't much further ahead. But then, same goes for the Marlins.

[EDmuch]

Isnt it time to begin to worry about Nola? He has one solid game pitched in the first month.

[gmwannabe]

maybe. kind of good that they broke off negotiations for that large extension. give him. few months months into the warm weather then we will get a better idea of what is going on.
gm

[zambonir]

I'd say he's made four solid starts in a row, and two good ones in there (this one was solid but not great). Dominating the World Series champions on the road and then giving up four runs to a team that won 111 games last year isn't so bad. The loss of velocity remains a concern. And Thomson tends to stick with him too long.

Still wouldn't hesitate to sign him; look no further than Taijuan Walker (i.e. the sort of pitcher who would be available to replace him) for why.

[Austinfan]

Nola has lost both velo and command, not drastic, but enough to give you a sense of what the next five years of his career will look like. He's always had a small margin for error, when he has his command and his 4 seamer can touch 95, he's still a top #2, when he leaves too many pitches in the center of the plate and his FB is 92-93, he's a #4 or so.

Nola doesn't really have a dominant secondary pitch, when he's on it's more a matter of being able to mix four pitches effectively with command, 4 seamer up, 2 seamer on the edge, curve falling out of the K-zone and change ups fading away from LH hitters. Ranger is very similar from the left side. Both have to have top command to be effective. Neither has a Wheeler type rising FB at 97, or a Brogdon disappearing change up, or . . .

[andyb]

Nowhere near ready to say Nola is done. I wonder if the pitch clock is affecting him more than others. Losing 1 mph should not be fatal for him. He is just missing his corners and getting behind in counts because of that.

Nola has always been a command pitcher first and foremost and there is nothing in his performance this year that suggests the command will not return. H/9 and HR/9 are all fine. The K rate has dropped precipitously and of course that is an issue. If the cause is getting behind in counts he'll recover just fine. I also want to see his velocity once we hit the warmer weather where he has typically thrived. Shorter offseason probably did not help him either.

[EDmuch]

To me if a pitcher wants a $30 million dollar a year contract, he cannot wait until the All Star break to get "warmed up".

[zambonir]

He can if, in the end, he's more durable and more valuable than 95% of the other pitchers out there. We shall see. If Eflin's ERA and track record didn't stop the Rays from giving him what seemed to be an overpay there is probably one out there for Nola too. And right now the Phillies could use Eflin (and paid even more for his currently inferior replacement).

But if Nola doesn't have a good year that could also increase the odds of him coming back on a more modest (relatively speaking) deal. He already did his hometown discount deal though, so I don't blame him for not giving them one now (and also don't blame the Phillies for not giving him a Ryan Howard deal).

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies do have some time to evaluate Nola further. I am not sure I would go for a multi-year big dollar contract but Noal is and I think will be an effective starter this season. They can also get a better evaluation on some of the young starters such as Abel and Painter. If they believe they have two or even three potential additions to the rotation, they might decide they need to shed a potential big dollar starter from the rotation. Time will tell.

[andyb]

I am guessing the Phillies offered a long term deal approaching $200 million total before the season. Guessing there was a team discount with an AAV closer to $25 million than $30 million stretching the contract out like they did with Turner.

Nola probably figured he'd get more after the season and passed on it. Now if he pitches the rest of the year like he has so far he won't get $200 million. Probably more like 5/125 (i.e. closer to the Wheeler deal). Both sides knew the risk.

But that is OK. The one thing the Phillies did not want to do is pay full market price a year in advance (the Howard contract mistake). Note we are also learning that we will have a hard time penciling in 180 innings from any of our young pitchers even next season, so there will still be pressure to keep Nola or replace him with someone that could fill those innings effectively. Not having Nola (even a slightly lesser Nola) does not make the Phillies better.