24 Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C) @ San Francisco Giants (Harrison)

EastFallowfield 2024-05-29 22:25:16 UTC #101

His ERA as a reliever is worse than as a starter, but it seems to me that he's had some bad luck in some of those outings, like today, that single was just a bloop into no man's land.

Patchmk88 2024-05-29 22:25:29 UTC #102

A 2-4 roadtrip but an even run differential over those 6 games.

VoteForKalas 2024-05-29 22:39:19 UTC #103

I think it is pretty clear. He got pushed aside to make room for an expensive vet despite doing quite well. That expensive vet has been inconsistent at best, but he gets to keep his starting role regardless.

They do not trust Turnbull in another pitching role, thus he only gets put into very low leverage games and situations.

Therefore, be cannot get back into the rotation or earn a bigger role in the pen - he is stuck in purgatory. An injury may be his only path back.

andyb 2024-05-29 22:45:48 UTC #104

The odds of there not being an opening at some point in the rotation are pretty slim.

The Phillies made the right call with Walker in hindsight because they do need to protect their investment and he still has decent stuff (albeit spotty command). Turnbull also has spotty command at times. I don't think the Phillies care much about how he does in these lower leverage situations. He is actually getting accustomed to pitching without a starter's warmup in shorter outings - so this experience is probably making him a better bullpen pitcher who might be given higher leverage situations as the season goes on.

BostonRoss 2024-05-29 22:56:21 UTC #105

It isn’t crazy to think that Walker can get back some of what he’s lost with regular work, and to think that maybe Turnbull isn’t going to maintain what he did over his six starts after several years of mediocrity in Detroit. But if Walker continues to falter, I’m sure they won’t stick with him all season. Remember, he was never used in last year’s postseason.

LoneStarPhan 2024-05-29 23:16:07 UTC #106

It is almost certain that Turnbull would not continue the level of his first six starts, We hope he can continue to be useful and pitch well. There was concern about innings since Turnbull has not gone over a hundred innings or so in a couple years. Walker is needed this year.

zambonir 2024-05-30 00:05:20 UTC #107

They said Turnbull would either pitch long outings with extra rest to keep him stretched out and they said they liked him for higher leverage spots. Some of it is circumstantial and some of it is that they don't trust him as a reliever. But sure, they are jerking him around a little too.

But I still think going with Walker for now was correct. He has the greater track record, both in his career and with some very strong work last year after a slow start (even if it was also followed by a poor finish). Lots of people wanted Lorenzen to stay in the rotation over Walker or Sanchez last year too (though not for long!)

Sabin 2024-05-30 09:37:02 UTC #108

Personally, this seems a bit charitable. Walker basically had a good June (1.50) and July (3.86), between an April (4.97) and May (6.11), and August (4.76), September (5.93), that were not.

phillychuck 2024-05-30 12:03:18 UTC #109

All except May seem fine for a #4/#5 starter. What is the league-wide ERA for bottom-of-the-rotation starters?

I found online that in 2022 their ERA was 4.79. So Walker is about average for that role last season.

andyb 2024-05-30 12:30:05 UTC #110

And he was worth 2.5 WAR which is only $7.2 million per win. A fair deal as WAR is most likely valued at close to $10 million today in the free agent market.

He is clearly not doing that this year, but his stuff is not awful. The command is not there. Velocity is down a bit but really pretty close to last season and his movement on his sinker is just fine. He is going to be paid another $54 million by the Phillies and making that investment worthwhile is a positive goal. Starters that can eat innings are somewhat rare these days. He is a younger version of Kyle Gibson these days. He is paid a bit more but is younger at least.

Austinfan 2024-05-30 12:57:15 UTC #111

The top four are set for years, Sanchez is rounding into a top 3 starter on most teams and has a lot of upside - not many LHPs who can throw 93-94, t97 with two plus secondary pitches. That Mead trade looking just fine, thank you.

Walker's problem is Painter should be back next season, Abel may still turn it around and Mercado is looking more and more like a steal. Which is probably why they'll let Turnbull walk and may try to move Walker in the offseason. Turnbull doesn't look comfortable as a RP and Walker has lost some velo and has never had great command.

phillychuck 2024-05-30 13:16:30 UTC #112

They may try to move Turnbull this year for a pitcher who is more comfortable in the "swing" role. I think it's optimistic to expect Painter before July of next season. I don't think Mercado is "real", his numbers are driven by an unsustainably low BABIP and his K/IP statistic is way down from his previous seasons.

zambonir 2024-05-30 13:41:26 UTC #113

I was going off of David Murphy's cherry-pick, which is still reasonable (perhaps even more so than month splits) even as a cherry-pick.

Walker’s first nine starts of 2023: 41⅓ innings, 6.53 ERA, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, eight home runs. Phillies record: 5-4.

Walker’s next 17 starts of 2023: 101 innings, 3.03 ERA, 80 strikeouts, 40 walks, nine home runs. Phillies’ record: 14-3.

But either way, the body of work is undeniable: the wins, the innings and the WAR actually made him the #3 starter they wanted him to be, even if he is plainly not that now and it was only due to Suarez's injury and Nola's down year. And the career track record.

Versus Turnbull who had a 7.26 ERA last year, has only pitched 81 innings combined in the last three seasons, and was no better than Walker when he did pitch more in 2019-2020.

zambonir 2024-05-30 14:04:42 UTC #114

Yeah I don't think Painter is in the rotation until July (at best). But it's funny someone is lamenting the loss of Ben Brown in the other thread, keeping him wouldn't have stopped them from signing Walker or needing Sanchez last season so he certainly wouldn't be starting for the major league team this year. Not that it wouldn't have been good to have the option.

Turnbull is presumably leaving as a free agent regardless but I don't think I would rush to lose the starting rotation depth. Swingmans are easier to come by (and the Phillies see Mercado as one too). They'll likely still need that sixth starter in August and September and they'll want a better relief specialist in October.

Sabin 2024-05-30 19:39:29 UTC #115

It's generally between $8 and $10M. That said, I somehow missed he had accrued a 2.5 WAR last year.

Perhaps it was the direction he was in over the final two months, or that my expectations were a little off relative to his career norms/expected role, but last year left me feeling a bit wanting with him.

Sabin 2024-05-30 20:13:20 UTC #116

Well, I don't know that I find either bowl of cherries particularly more 'reasonable' here. I think more of my feeling was tied to how/why he was the #3 'they wanted him to be', which while true in the end may not have been achieved the way they envisioned. Still, he did fit the role and put up a 2.5 WAR while doing so.

Also, for clarity, I wasn't intending my feelings on Walker's 2023 (or 2024 for that matter) to be an argument for Turnbull. I was just focusing on impressions with the former.

zambonir 2024-05-30 22:08:58 UTC #117

He was the Phillies #2 by WAR, albeit by just a hair ahead of both Suarez and Nola. 15 wins, even though we know that was hardly just him.

The guy he replaced, Eflin, put up a 3.5 and won 16 games. Phillies thought Walker would be both more durable and longer (which remains to be seen). And weren't sure how good (and durable and long) Suarez would be. Much better situation now in any case!