GDT 5/22/24 Texas Rangers (Dunning) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Walker, T)

[phillychuck]

Too soon to worry--enjoy the ride!

[zambonir]

At this point the Phillies themselves are kind of like, "yeah this is great but it's not exactly what we're here for." They don't want to be the 2001 Mariners.

[phillychuck]

I do. Except for the ending.

[zambonir]

Man, they got steamrolled. 4-1 in ALCS. Almost would have made more sense if they'd lost in the earlier round, easier to call that bad luck/random chance.

And then it was the DBacks year thanks to Curt & Johnson and the rare Mariano stumble off a broken bat.

[phillychuck]

I really think we overemphasize championships in all sports. Most of my best sports memories do not have ot do with "winning it all." Old Phillies memories include the 18-16 game vs the Cubs at Wrigley, the 23-22 game also in Chicago, Carlton's 27 win season, Utley's 2007 season, Howard coming up and being as good as we minor league fans thought he might be, Halladay's pitching feats, etc. You don't need to win a World Series to enjoy baseball..Don't even get me started about th Sixers...

[andyb]

The best Phillies teams of the past era had Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee on them. The 2008 team had Cole Hamels and a "pray for offense" rest of the pitching staff. Playoff results are very random. Depth is great, but basically to win most teams need a half dozen players playing really well at the end. Baseball has the smallest of home field advantages and perhaps the most randomness in its results.

[zambonir]

For sure, but that is American sports culture. Super Bowls and Final Fours and Stanley Cups (okay, Canadian too). Baseball was kind of the outlier until playoff expansion. It was still a joy to make the World Series and raise that NL pennant on Opening Day last year but it wouldn't feel the same if there's only an NL East banner going up next year, and even the concept of the NL pennant is not what it was pre League Championship rounds.

We should value it more, like in soccer, but collectively we don't. Great individual games or moments in a season (or early playoff round) are still fantastic of course, just different.

Junior hockey might be the only thing that resembles non-US soccer - teams still really treasure having the best regular season record, and then they can also win their league but lose the Memorial Cup and that's still a big deal.

But for sure, enjoy the ride. The attendance figures say that people are.

[andyb]

The main point I guess is that on a team with depth and few obvious weaknesses I'd be hesitant to make too many trades. Castellanos and maybe an extra high leverage arm in the bullpen are the main things one can think of now and right now they are problems that could fix themselves by the end of the year. I don't care about backup catcher because everyone in the clubhouse loves Stubbs and frankly we might have Marchan if we need him in a few weeks (and the backup catcher will never play in the postseason).

So right now I think the only thing they should address at the deadline is injuries. Maybe a bullpen tweak. I just don't see them needing to do much more. If Merrifield keeps struggling he'll get replaced internally. If Rojas struggles we just use Pache. If Casty continues to struggle it is a larger issue, but I kind of expect him to get back to the 725-750 OPS range by the end of this. Bullpen tweaks might depend on whether Kerkering or Dominguez can handle higher leverage roles by the end. Good bet that one of them can.

[Austinfan]

Dahl might be an option for a platoon with Castellanos if his hitting is for real and he can play RF.
Clemons is a long shot to play OF but you could put him in LF and Marsh in RF.
It's not like you'd lose defense playing them over Castellanos.

Not sure there are many other internal options, Muzzioti seems to have flatlined.

Merrifield can be buried, it's a waste of money but not a real issue.
Sosa has basically made him expendable, and if he's not hitting, Pache is a much better OF option.

[andyb]

Dahl might be an option for a platoon with Castellanos if his hitting is for real and he can play RF.
Clemons is a long shot to play OF but you could put him in LF and Marsh in RF.
It's not like you'd lose defense playing them over Castellanos.

I don't think either Clemens or Dahl would be an improvement defensively over Castellanos. We are simply not going to make a move there if his offense rebounds to 80%-90% of last year's offense.

[zambonir]

I think they'll probably just get the bullpen arm and the bench bat, though the latter really depends on what they ultimately do with Merrifield and Pache. It was still a small mistake not to have someone to get that one big PH last year against Arizona, and it won't be hard (or expensive) to get that guy. But if Merrifield stays it will be a LHB. Or, hopefully Clemens really does take to the role.

Now Casty is talking about becoming more patient which he was refusing to consider before. It's a process.

[Austinfan]

Casellanos has made some adjustments, but his recent improvement is as much bad pitching (never throw him an inside FB!) as him playing better - though he is laying off the outside breaking ball a bit more - still tries to pull that ball when he isn't whiffing on it and roles it over to SS instead of hitting it to right center.

At some point either he turns it around or they'll realize he's a lost cause - given they're thinking WS, I don't think they'll let his contract stand in the way of taking other steps. He's replacement level unless his OPS > .800 given his liability as a fielder, so improving to .700 won't keep him in the lineup.

The player who has improved as a hitter is JT, moving him up to 2nd seems to encourage him to be more selective, and he's hitting better pitches instead of chasing for Ks and weak contact.

[andyb]

You are overthinking on Castellanos. He has always been aggressive. Being selective has generally not worked for him in his career. Now as he ages he probably needs to be more aggressive (like JT too). We are never going to change him and your comment about every hitter is only about patience. Every hitter in baseball has a constant challenge of aggressiveness vs patience. The best the Phillies can do is get Castellanos comfortable and make sure his swing is consistent.

You are just wrong about JT. He is less patient now this year as he has aged. He has 2 walks in the last 14 days so it is not like he has improved moving to the 2 hole. The difference is that he is getting pitches to hit because Bryce and Bohm are after him. I also imagine he gets to face lots of left-handed pitching (like Trea) hitting between Schwarber and Harper. But he is not more selective. Pitchers just don't want to walk him and he is still a good enough hitter to do damage if he sees more pitches in the strike zone. Check out his platoon splits (1007/693 OPS against L/R).

[VoteForKalas]

Unless JT is injured. Again the assumption one can play JT 130+ games and expect him to be fine for the playoffs strikes me as weird.

The question on Stubb's is can he be a productive everyday C for this team if JT goes down. If the answer is no, then C better be on the list for the deadline or internal options better get chances during the season to show what they can do.

It would be horribly sad if one of the reasons we lose in the playoffs is because we neglected to have the best C depth we can. As we've seen the last two seasons, when a team gets the chance to win a ring, they better grab it as it is tough to get another shot.

[Austinfan]

There is a difference between drawing walks and being selective. The latter can lead to the former, but not necessarily.

Some hitters, like Stott, should draw a lot of walks b/c he's such a good 2 strike hitter he can take borderline pitches and live with calls going against him. So it makes sense for him to be patient with less than 2 strikes and look for a pitch he can drive. Hitters like Schwarber and Haper can take pitches b/c they hit with so much power than you accept the Ks as part of the package.

Others, it's more a matter of getting a pitch you can hit instead of wasting strikes on pitches you have no chance to hit. If you don't chase bad pitches, odds are you'll get one or two per PA in your "sweet" zone.

Castellanos is going to fall off the cliff at some point b/c he "wastes" too many strikes, as his bat speed declines with age, his aggressive approach will set him up for failure. He's also "pull happy" and turns too many outside pitches into GBs to SS. Compare to Bohm, who has learned not to force it, he's gotten better at turning on inside pitches while taking outside pitches to the other field.

[andyb]

But the real question for JT is really whether he is healthy for the playoffs. If so, it really does not matter if an awful backup catcher plays 20 games or 30 games or 50 games. That is the advantage of depth. I suspect we will rest JT more as the season goes on. Maybe even give him one of those 10-day vacations. But if we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs it does not really matter if Stubbs plays 10 more games. Or Marchan. We can lose a few extra games and the playoffs are still a crapshoot.

I want a better backup catcher. It just does not help this team's World Series chances at all unless JT is injured. If he wears down we'll rest him more. I just am not spending anything significant on another catcher absent injury.

[andyb]

There is a difference between drawing walks and being selective. The latter can lead to the former, but not necessarily.

But JT is not being more selective. If anything he is being less selective. He is just getting better pitches to hit batting second and he has always been more of a contact hitter than a power hitter anyway so the results are good because the manager has put him in a better spot.

We all get that you hate Castellanos because he is not your type of player. But his underlying data shows he is not really getting worse. The Phillies will stick with him and he'll probably recover somewhat over the year. There just has been no indication they want an upgrade. They want him to do better. That is their priority for now.

[zambonir]

I just don't really see how the Phillies can acquire a catcher who actually would adequately replace JT In the playoffs based on a hypothetical. Stubbs probably is good enough, especially given he's a key part of helping to run this pitching staff, and Marchan is also probably good enough. Neither of them can replace JT but neither can a hypothetical depth catcher who might only be 10 or 15% better than Stubbs and doesn't have the track record or credibility in the clubhouse. And if Stubbs actually got to play every day for a few weeks he might put up a .600 OPS just like most of the #2 catchers in the world.

It's no different than any other position really. If we lose Harper or Schwarber or Bohm or Turner or Stott or Marsh we don't have actually adequate replacements for them, even if a few big Kody ABs and Sosa's excellent recent work offer some glimmers of hope. Even their attempt to add OF depth (or, if they pull the trigger, replace Merriffeld) is unlikely to fetch someone you'd want to see starting every night in the playoffs.

[VoteForKalas]

I would argue C is more important than the other positions due to the role with the pitching staff.

I never said anything about replacing JT which of course is impossible. What I said was being a productive everyday C i.e. holding the fort as best one can. Not being a total black hole at the position.

The dropoff from JT to Stubb's is like plummeting down an elevator shaft - Stubbs cannot be a productive everyday C.

[zambonir]

I just don't know if that's true is all. Two weeks ago I would have said Sosa can't be a productive every day SS. And he definitely can't be a productive every day 3B (at least now that the standard being set by the starter is high). But that's who would play if Turner or Bohm were out for the playoffs. Stubbs might surprise us if he got a chance, just as he did in his first season.

And it wouldn't be every day at catcher. It would be 50-50 or 60-40. And even then I would still be inclined to wonder if Marchan, Garcia or anyone acquired in a trade would make the team better than Stubbs on any given night, just in terms of the very thing you say is more important: the role with the pitching staff. Stubbs might be the best back-up catcher in MLB by that benchmark.