GDT 5/22/23 Arizona Diamondbacks (Henry) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler)

[Yogi]

I cannot watch this team anymore, they are just not playing well and make too many mistakes. Starting pitching is bad. Clutch hitting non-existant. Fielding also bad. For all the money spent on this team, we are not good. The whole team, minus some of the younger players is in a slump. AND, most important Thompson is a pedestrian manager, last year was the team got hot, not that Rob was a good manager.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, they are not playing well more often than they have a good game. So far, a hugely disappointing season.

[VoteForKalas]

I think most of it is pitching, especially the starters. Nola has been the best so far, but inconsistent as the rest. The bullpen has been ok, but taxed due to the starter's issues.

Hoskins' injury has obviously hurt, but Harper is back now, Castellanos is on track and the young guys are doing better than I expected. It is really Schwarber, Turner and Realmuto struggling and having to use roster fodder like Harrison, Guthrie, and Clemens that limits the lineup.

I think most of us understood last year's run to the WS was fluky and that repeating that or getting close was a low odds proposition, but I still expected us to be a playoff team and thus it is upsetting to see them performing below that level.

[zambonir]

I'd say they are performing at almost exactly the same level as a 6th wild card does. The line between a .475 and a .525 team is almost invisible over any 10 game stretch, and they are still one of five teams projected to win between 83 and 86 games. It is still early. That could break three games in either direction.

And agreed it is the pitching. The line-up gets by when there is a good starting pitcher outing (including yesterday which was at least winnable). Without that they are still capable of winning games by scoring six or seven runs, but not as often, and probably not against the better teams. And if they'd just gone .375 in games with the fifth starter they'd have three more wins, instead they've gone 0-8.

And the bench players aren't really that bad for bench players. Clemens is actually doing well enough in that role (possibly as well as Hall will and better than Cave did in LF). Harrison and Guthrie aren't really markedly worse than Maton and Vierling probably, it's just that we know Harrison isn't going to get better and Guthrie hasn't been able to get going (and really shouldn't be playing the way you could justify playing Pache, purely for defense). In the DH era this is basically an all-utility player bench, with the best two guys platooning at 3B and 1B. It's just painful to watch those utility players get starts, but it always has been.

And JT is basically at his career numbers, and his 2021 numbers. We just take for granted he should be better and maybe he will, but given his age/position, maybe not.

The real loss to the bench this year so far is actually Stubbs. Last year that was one game a week where there was hardly any drop-off offensively and this year he is no better than Knapp was his last season.

[phillychuck]

If Ranger comes back and is similar to what he has been in previous seasons the pitching will be better. If they want to securely make the post-season they will have to find a solution for the fifth starter, and Turner will have to get back on track, at least. Baseball is a long season; and teams are streaky. We need to hope for a good streak...

[zambonir]

They got by for four months last year with black holes in RF and CF, Didi in SS and injuries to Segura (who was also really not that good after he came back) and Harper. If it turns out Turner's year is a write-off at the plate they can still get by. He is still contributing more WAR than Bohm or Schwarber (and that's not even for defense in his case).

Of course, as with last year, the tide has to turn soon. They can still salvage May or it can be completely ruinous if they lose this series and the next two.

Getting Schwarber out of LF and Bohm away from 1B will also help if they can get there.

[andyb]

Offensively the only glaring underperformance is Turner. His issues seem more bad habits and strike zone discipline than anything else (though he is swinging over breaking balls in the zone a bit too much).

It is pitching where we are falling short. Obviously not much from Suarez and Walker yet. But Nola and Wheeler have been very average. Now we see why they REALLY wanted Painter to win a job.

[zambonir]

Now we see why they REALLY wanted Painter to win a job.

Or they really overrated the chance of that happening, as well as how good Walker and Falter would be. They did do a good job being aggressive with the bullpen though. They could have spent that Kimbrel money on a bat (temporary replacement for Harper) or a veteran #5 (who would probably still not be that great for the money) but they figured the deep bullpen might mitigate the overworked returning starter (as well as Falter and Painter's likely lack of length).

[Patchmk88]

Offensively I'm not really concerned with much other than our chase rate. If we stop chasing bad pitches, we'll get better pitches to hit.

I am really concerned with our rotation. Nola has been fine, but has definitely lost some velocity this year. Wheeler has lost velocity and command. I'm hoping Suarez just needs a few more starts to get to where he would be if he had spring training (his velocity looks like it might be up). Walker needs to be able to command his pitches to be effective. On days where he has good command, he's going to more than likely throw a quality start. On days where he doesn't have command, he's going to throw a real clunker. In my opinion there is no hope for our 5th starter spot other than a trade or one of the three prospects taking it. Until then, I'd guess that we'll lose 80% of our 5th starter/bullpen games.

[zambonir]

Well, we've been losing 100% of them so that would be an improvement!

[phillychuck]

Wheeler and Nola's regression should have been anticipated--they threw a boatload of innings last season; pitchers who make it to the series often struggle a bit during the following season, especially when the innings pitched represent a personal high.

[zambonir]

I think it was anticipated. They overpaid (in the eyes of most) for Walker who was an All-Star in 2021 (even though he wound up not having a great season) and a credible 3/4 rather than a 4/5. And they were also really banking on Painter being better than a #5. And they stayed away from Eflin since he had a high risk of injury/lack of innings (incorrectly, so far, but still probably the right call). But the combination of Walker's ineffectiveness, Suarez's injury, Painter's injury, Falter's complete collapse and the the health/poor performance of the three remaining AAA depth guys (was Plassmyer really competing for a spot in the major league rotation in March?) left them exposed in all kinds of ways. Including not having Strahm as someone to pick up shorter Nola/Wheeler/Suarez starts once or twice a week.

And even so, they have survived it. And offense was pretty much fine in April, and probably will be again. But I don't think you can expect this line-up to score 5-6 runs consistently unless you can magically make half of our players 28 again. The variation, if not outright continued regression, is to be expected with older players (and with Schwarber and Castellanos specifically).

[andyb]

If they get Nelson back they will be better prepared for bullpen games. It is better now with Strahm, but having 2 relievers that can go 2-3 innings with less rest than a starter (i.e. 2-3 days rest) might give them enough to survive without a 5th starter for much of the year.

[Patchmk88]

Definitely agree with this. I was expecting a decline from both of them (Wheeler and Nola) entering the season due to last year's workload. Unfortunately I was expecting Suarez to be similar to what he was last year, Walker to be an improvement over our 4 spot last year, and Painter and company to be better than our 5th spot last year. Unfortunately none of those three things have come to fruition yet.

[Patchmk88]

Also I have been a guy who has always teetered on the line of the Hoskins is overrated camp (I called him a loser last year during our dark hours), but I think this lineup really missed him. He was the guy from the right side that could hit 30 HRs. We don't have anyone to replace that.

[zambonir]

It's still not clear if they want Nelson to be a depth starter or a reliever (not that it's a huge distinction in the land of bullpen games) but either way the bullpen is pretty full (especially in light of today's move). I mean, obviously you just flip-flop him with Covey if need be (and then Marte goes for Alvarado) but while Nelson was intermittently useful last year he's pretty fungible as well.

[andyb]

I don't think the bullpen is that full. There is room for 2 multi-inning guys. If it comes at the expense of a Bellatti or Marte or both then so be it. Remember the no 5th starter option has 9 total relievers. We are a bit limited in that the back end of our ideal bullpen is 4 different 1-inning only guys (Alvarado, Kimbrel, Dominguez, Soto). So rethinking the rest of the bullpen on a 4-starter roster does give one some flexibility.

I worry of course about the load on the starters because I clearly think that they should all get the extra day (i.e. 5 days rest) whenever there is an off day. We only skipped that last week because we had 3 off days in 8 total days. When we get back to normal I think everyone gets extra rest.