GDT 5/21/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin) @ Chicago Cubs (Quintana)

[HopeSpringsEternal]

But it's also possible their data said Nicasio was the right guy. That's the thing about data, it's not infallible, but it's also hard for us to second-guess it if we don't know what it is (like if Nicasio was chosen for arm slot reasons, or for an opposing hitter's ability to handle a certain spin rate).

Nothing against Nicasio, but if our data said that he was the guy instead of Neshek to pitch the 9th, I think we need to get new data. The traditional data (WHIP, opposition batting average, etc.) for this year, for the last 3 years, for their careers says we should have pitched Neshek to try to close out the 9th inning.

[zambonir]

I mean, of course, but internal data is way more granular than that. It's not about pitching "the 9th" it's about who was actually coming to bat.

Anyway, it certainly seems more likely it had to do with Neshek being sore but who knows what the real story is there.

[zambonir]

The official explanation (or at least the beat writer's explanation):

Adam Morgan was unavailable after pitching in three straight games. Pat Neshek was given the night off after either appearing or warming up in four straight games. Hector Neris (three of four games) and Seranthony Dominguez (three of five games) were off-limits, too.

Phillies fall to Cubs as Juan Nicasio blows save opportunity

[andyb]

It does show the problem over time with short outings (like Morgan) when the bullpen pitches more innings. This is not really anyone's fault. It is kind of the reality of bullpens today and frankly Nicasio had been pitching well the last couple of weeks. I don't think Kapler thought using him was a huge drop.

It does make one ask the question of why De Los Santos is there if you are not going to trust him with the 6th or 7th inning in a game. I am in the camp that he SHOULD be a reliever because his stuff plays up and dropping his 3rd and 4th pitches might help a bit. Or get Pivetta or Velazquez up in that role if you are more willing to use them out of the bullpen than De Los Santos.

[zambonir]

Well, what you are really asking is, can a team afford to carry the old-fashioned long reliever/mop-up guy, who only pitches if the starter gets bombed or you're up five runs, in this age of bullpen overuse? But they've certainly had enough of those situations.

[Lawman]

I'm not killing Kapler w/ using Nicasio last night. I figured Neris and Morgan needed the day off, and I figured Neshek may have been off as well.

Agreed on why de los Santos wasn't seemingly available, at least once you saw Nicasio wasn't available.

[andyb]

Yes, I am asking that. But it also questions the manager's excuse about all those other pitchers not being available since all the other options had pitched so much. There definitely is a bit of a bullpen usage bias in games you are ahead versus games you are behind. We won 4 games in a row so overused the guys designated for games where we were ahead. A more balanced sabermetric view of situations, however, would dictate a wider variety of pitchers that could be used in those situations.

The main point though is, don't have a guy in your bullpen that you will not use in certain situations and complain that the other guys are all overused.

[Lawman]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/gabe-kapler-remains-committed-bullpen-044640698.html

Relievers Pat Neshek, Adam Morgan, Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris - all of whom can and have gotten big outs at the end of games -were all unavailable on the same night. That bit of bullpen management left Kapler in the crosshairs of scrutiny, but he did not budge from his belief that giving those four arms a night off was the right thing to do.

For the record, Morgan had pitched three straight days and Neris three of four. Dominguez worked three of the previous five days and threw 32 pitches on Monday night. Neshek had worked two of the previous four days, but had been up in the bullpen four straight.

"We were strict in giving those guys a blow," Kapler said. "They've all been working really hard, both in the ‘pen getting up, and also getting into games consistently. We definitely believed Nicasio could get the job done. We saw Alvarez get the job done, we saw Garcia get the job done, and we believed Nicasio could, as well. We were asking a lot of him to go through that part of the lineup. It's a really potent portion of the Cubs' lineup."

[julio]

The main point though is, don't have a guy in your bullpen that you will not use in certain situations and complain that the other guys are all overused.

I don't follow this.

Fans are going to complain when the team loses. And of course, fans don't determine who is in the bullpen.

Are you suggesting that Kapler was "complaining" that his relievers are overused? Or complaining about the presence of De Los Santos?

[andyb]

Are you suggesting that Kapler was "complaining" that his relievers are overused? Or complaining about the presence of De Los Santos?

Kapler said he could not use 4 different relievers. Whether that is a complaint is verbal semantics. It is a situation he contributed to by not using one of his relievers. You are spending a little too much time examining language where the point on Kapler's bullpen usage is pretty clear. Maybe this is on Klentak a bit for not giving him another reliever he would actually use. Kapler helped create this situation and whether you consider his explanation a complaint or a justification is meaningless. The bullpen usage is on him.

[zambonir]

I just think you're always going to have a "worst guy in the bullpen" you don't want to use unless it's extremely low-leverage or you are forced to. Plus it was a one-run game, if those four relievers were truly unavailable De Los Santos would have had multiple extra-innings.

Now, in theory, if the 'pen was fully healthy, nobody would be that guy. Arano would actually be the low man. Before him it was Ramos and he got used too (but he's been around the block).

[andyb]

The point is more about the 4 previous games and not getting De Los Santos in them. That created part of the overuse among the other relievers. Why have him on the roster if you are not going to use him when you are overusing your other relievers?

[Austinfan]

The mistake is bringing up AAA starters as RPs, even in short stints.

If you want them to relieve, have them do so in AAA and get used to the rhythm of coming out of the pen.
Otherwise rotate players like Davis, etc.
This is why they have to make a decision with Pivetta and/or De Los Santos, if they see them as RPs, make the move.

The real issue is Robertson, Hunter, Arano injured, and is Ramos also out?
You can't lose half your bullpen without an impact, which is why you need to stockpile minor league RPs as well as SPs.

[julio]

The point is more about the 4 previous games and not getting De Los Santos in them. That created part of the overuse among the other relievers. Why have him on the roster if you are not going to use him when you are overusing your other relievers?

Several comments:

First - Yes, if there's an issue, it's less who was available last night than why were four guys unavailable, and that's a function of usage patterns over several games.

Second - De Los Santos is on the roster because they believe they need to have a long guy, in case a starter blows up early. With an eight-man bullpen, I don't think that's exactly unreasonable.

On the other hand, when you use a long man, you should let him pitch several innings (and actually bat! ), rather than yanking him for a pinch-hitter the first time his spot comes up. If you're going to use your "long man" for two innings, and then run four or five "short men" out there, you don't need, or want, a guy who's basically a starting pitcher in that role. So Austinfan's point is, I think, on the money - unless you intend to use a AAA starter as a true "long reliever" (which nobody much in MLB actually does any more), then don't put them in the major-league bullpen.

Of course, part of what's driving their choice of which AAA guys to bring up is 40-man roster considerations. They have AAA relievers they could be auditioning, but those guys mostly aren't on the 40-man (except Yack Rios), which means that to use one of them, they'd need to clear a roster spot, which usually means losing somebody, not just rotating somebody to AAA. They may get some roster relief soon, though; it looks like Cozens can be moved to the 60-day IL (foot surgery), and I'm thinking Arano's likely headed there as well (he's seeing Neal ElAttrache about his elbow - that's the Dodgers' orthopedic guy, and the successor to Frank Jobe). So we could be seeing Seth McGarry or J.D. Hammer before too long.

[andyb]

7 of 9 De Los Santos appearances in the majors have been bullpen appearances. None longer than 2 innings. Those appearances were more successful overall than his 2 starts and some of them came after he was starting for various stints including his most recent appearance on May 5th.

He does not need to be in a blowout to be used. If he is on the team then use him. If you are not going to use him, get somebody else. Frankly I think he is exactly the type of 2-inning reliever we should be using (high K rate, can go that extra inning) and we need to get away from too many 1-inning or shorter appearances that lead to last night's problems.

[LoneStarPhan]

The four relievers on the IL were all expected to be important contributors this season. That does hurt.

Any time a reliever costs a game it makes it easy to second guess the manager, but every reliever fails occasionally.