GDT 5/14/23 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa) @ Colorado Rockies (Freeland)

Unless Nola turns his season around, he's going to regret not taking the Phillies offer.

He's not bad, just not as good as he's been, and it's a warning about his probable decline going forward, he's unlikely to fall off a cliff, but may simply progress from a #3 (which he is so far this season) to a #4 in a few years - that's worth a Walker contract, not premium money. There's not much upside, b/c he maxed out his talent, but plenty of downside.

That's the difference with Wheeler when we signed him, who had injury problems and inconsistency, but also elite stuff. So there was a lot of upside to go with the potential downside.

I think Nola is still the same old firm #2 he has always been. I also think he'll still end up with better numbers than he has now. But even now his WHIP is lower than his career average and his current ERA is not that far out of whack with the leaguewide trend (average ERA up nearly 7/10s of a run). He'll probably end up with the same old normal 3 or 4 WAR, just not the CY contending campaign of last year or 2018. And he's healthy. In the Dodgers/Padres/Cohen/Middleton MLB of 2024, he'll get paid. Maybe he gets less than Urias but one assumes the Dodgers will keep Urias. And the next-best option (other than Ohtani) is Scherzer (if he opts out, which right now might not be the way for him to go).

Three comments on Nola: 1) His K-rate is down very substantially this season -- about 7K/9 IP this year vs 9.5 to 12K/IP every other season; 2) Last year was a high water year, the best by far since 2018 and he threw a ton of IP last year and he leads the team in IP this year and 3)Part of the 2022 up season was HR rate down -- now back where it was 2019-21.

The number of IP per season is a big part of his value to the Phillies, but it takes a toll.

I remember these types of discussions about Nola before, I suspect he is a hot weather pitcher. He has a lot of innings on his arm though, my guess is that his next contract will not be the value that this one was.

Question is, what are options to replace him. We have potential rookies, but those are always high risk chances to hope a rookie will be a big contributor (as Painter is proving this year).

With this many high price, short window players under contract it would be criminal to follow the Texas Ranger model of big offense, horrible pitching and nothing other than high scoring games.

I have seen the K rate dropping and do have some concern. Velocity is down a bit, but I would be curious about spin rate comparisons.

Stepping back I don't have huge concerns yet. The long season last year might have almost guaranteed a slower start this year. And we keep thinking he is more a number one than he actually is (a 2/3 starter with great durability and command). Remember 7 innings in Colorado is not easy. He seems to be getting better every outing. Command will improve.

But if the K rate does not start to recover then there is probably an ongoing concern about whether he still has swing and miss stuff. Something to watch.

As a Phillies phan I share some of the concerns, but also the, "who can they get who is better?" question. (I think the answer to that is probably a Kyle Gibson type - deadline pick-up with one controlled year left - as they wait for the prospects to progress, but I'm not sure I like that answer. To do better than that would mean actually trading one of those prospects).

I think the market will probably view his struggles this year - if they continue - as more of a 2022 hangover than the beginning of decline. He hasn't even turned 30 (quite) yet. Seems like there are more older pitchers excelling than ever. Sure, it would be nice to mitigate risk with shorter length but the Phillies have demonstrated no interest in that approach thus far.

They will also have the slight advantage of maybe being able to win a bidding war simply because other teams would have to give up compensation.

They may also decide to move on, and extend Wheeler - or at least pencil in plans to do so - at the same time. But Wheeler will be 35 the first season of his next contract. And you can't really punt on 2024 when this Schwarber/JT/Castellanos core has a ticking clock, even if Hoskins is already gone and Turner/Harper have longer timelines.

I don't think it's a matter of whether or not he is a #1, more a matter of recognizing how rich all these teams are and what a #2 can get paid these days, either by a great team that already has a #1 or one who doesn't have anyone better than Nola to begin with.

Nola career ERA by month:

April: 3.87
May: 3.20
June: 4.42
July: 3.10
August: 3.11
September: 4.26

His usualy m.o. is starts a little slow, hits his stride in May, swoons in June, peaks in July and August before stumbling to the finish. Interestingly, that script was reversed a bit in 2022 as his best months were June and September/October.

Nola is still a solid starter but I also wonder if the Phillies should offer a long term contract of 5 or 6 years. That is probably what it will take.

Luckily, not my money and not my decision. I feel confident that management under DD is fully capable of making a good decision.

I think we still think Giles and Monty are running the Phillies. They just don't care about dead money. If, five years from now, the Phillies are still a World Series caliber team but Harper and Nola are both not worth their contracts, they will either have cheaper options to replace them or will just spend more money.

I think the two words that best explain why the Phillies should pay the mark-up to keep a pitcher like Nola are Taijuan and Walker.