GDT 5/1/22 Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin) @ New York Mets (Scherzer)

[LoneStarPhan]

Six runs tonight but the pitching, starter and bullpen, not up to the task.

Phillies win one of three in NYC. Return home for two with Texas and four with the Mets. Phillies need to win at least four of these before going on the road for a very tough trip west.

[EDmuch]

Getting 6 runs in a Scherzer start is not bad. It was the pitching that let us down tonite. Also, as I was watching the game it seemed clear to me that Eflin will never be more than a 5th starter. There will be a good chance that he is gone after this year.

[allentown]

I disagree. I admit he has had 3 bad starts to 2 good ones and has a higher ERA that I like, but I also think he has been either unlucky or a victim of Phillies' infield D. His K/BB rate is good, he has given up only 1 HR in 23 IP, and his GO/AO ratio is excellent. Over the last 5 seasons, he's about a 4.25 ERA pitcher, which is better than a number 5 starter. I suspect that with a good IF defense, his numbers would be a lot better. He's a ground ball pitcher.

[zambonir]

I mean, if Eflin is gone it will be because the Phillies get outbid for him, and they'll still have to replace him with a similar mid-priced FA probably (as well as adding a higher-end guy). He still has a lot to prove this year, and his health will always be a question too. He's also got the best FIP in the rotation this season so far. Regardless, he's a 3 on a good day, a 4 on a bad day. Problem is Nola has been about the same, and Suarez probably isn't a #2 either.

[Philsmania]

At this point, you pretty much have to concede the division to the Mets. They have no weakness. I would say that it looks like baseball's final four will be all NY vs. LA. Mets-Dodgers in the NL, Angels-Yankees in the AL.

[zambonir]

Of course at this point last year the Mets and Nats were tied for first at 12-12 and the Braves were 12-16. But yes, they obviously look like they're for real.

I'm sure a wild card team will knock someone out of the playoffs, but will the Phillies be one of the wild card teams?

[zambonir]

Weirdly, Eflin still hasn't had his arbitration case for this year's salary. I assume his current season stats are not part of the case. Forgot about that time they demoted him, don't blame him for trying to get every penny.

(I will say that on paper, seems hard for him to win the case based on last season, but that's not exactly how arbitration works.)

Phillies notes: Mets musings, Zach Eflin's arbitration case, shift tactics, more

Sometime in late May, Zach Eflin will log onto a Zoom call before a Phillies game and listen to opposing cases about how much he should be paid this season. Eflin is the Phillies’ lone unsettled arbitration case, and the impasse will require a hearing. The Phillies want to pay Eflin $5.15 million. Eflin asked for $6.9 million.

He is a free agent at the end of the season.

“I think it’s important because I know my value,” Eflin said a day before a rocky start against the Mets. “I know my work. Obviously, I’ve been hurt and whatnot, but I know what I bring to this club every fifth day. And I see my true value more than what their offer was. So that’s really all I have to say. I’m curious to see what they have to say in a courtroom. So, it’ll be interesting, but I’m looking forward to it.”

Eflin said there was never a legitimate attempt to bridge the $1.75 million gap and settle.

Eflin made $4.45 million in 2021. With a strong 2022 season, he could fetch a lucrative contract on the open market. That isn’t Eflin’s focus right now, but the arbitration hearing will shift his attention — at least temporarily.

“Win or lose,” Eflin said, “I’m sticking up for myself and I feel good about that.”

In 2018, Eflin lost nine days’ worth of big-league salary when the Phillies optioned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley upon trading for Justin Bour. The front office, at the time, deemed it as a transaction that added value at the margins while trying to squeeze whatever it could from an overachieving roster. But the move angered Eflin and his teammates because he had a 3.57 ERA in 16 starts. Eflin spent fewer than 20 days in the minors, and his lost service time was restored. But a small chunk of salary was not.

“Players don’t forget that,” Eflin said. “So we’ll see what happens. I mean, I’m looking forward to the hearing and seeing what they have to say about me. I feel like I’m going to learn a lot about the business side of the game.”

[bkeich]

Sure makes it sound like Eflin isnt too happy with the Phils front office and is either going to make them pay for a small loss of salary due to roster manipulation or find someone else that will pay him. Doubt we are getting a hometown discount with him.

[zambonir]

He's always made it pretty clear he wanted to hit the open market - perhaps the Phillies already knew there was no point in trying to extend him, or maybe they never wanted to given the injury concerns. Nobody really gives a hometown discount once they're actually a free agent - see JT and Didi. And rarely before then even. Nola did, but Howard and Hamels certainly didn't.

[VoteForKalas]

At this point, you pretty much have to concede the division to the Mets. They have no weakness. I would say that it looks like baseball's final four will be all NY vs. LA. Mets-Dodgers in the NL, Angels-Yankees in the AL.

Predictions in May are dangerous

A long long long way to go yet

[zambonir]

A long way to go but I bet most teams that play .700 baseball and don't lose a single series in April do tend to be good all season. I'm sure we can all think of some exceptions, but most of those were probably more like .600 teams (including the 2018 Phillies).

[bkox]

Mets manager Showalter suspended 1 game for reliever's pitch

[andyb]

I was thinking Lopez was just annoyed that we claimed him and then waived him before Spring Training. In the irony category we DFA'd Roman Quinn to get him.

[zambonir]

can't we get our manager suspended?

Seriously though, if the Mets actually are good, it is really going to sting that much more that they did it with an owner who is way richer than Middleton and a manager the Phillies could have hired twice (MacPhail could have probably gotten him out of Baltimore if he'd wanted to).

[Philsmania]

Did the Mets really make smarter moves or did they just outmuscle everyone else financially this offseason? They signed the best starting pitcher on the market (Scherzer) and with thirdbase and centerfield historically weak, they signed the best thirdbaseman and centerfielder on the market (Escobar and Marte). This is a classic case of trying to buy a championship. The Mets just might succeed. I doubt this team will be build to last long, however. Having said that, I'm afraid we're heading into an era in which only the NY, LA teams and maybe the Chicago teams, BOS, STL and SF really have a chance to win the WS in any given season.

[zambonir]

Well historically speaking buying a championship doesn't always work! And since the Phillies are also trying to buy one shouldn't they have bought a CF, even if he's aging? The real issue is, the Mets used to have a worse ownership group than the Phillies and now they don't. They probably don't have a worse front office anymore either (and they are still expected to hire away David Stearns next year as well).

As ever it will come down to pitching (and pitcher health). But they are already doing this without DeGrom and assembled a formidable rotation. Not just about Scherzer, or just this year's moves.

[allentown]

Did the Mets really make smarter moves or did they just outmuscle everyone else financially this offseason?

They outmuscled everyone. Their payroll climbed by $80 million this off-season to $287million. The Phillies payroll increased about $28 million to $237 million. The Dodgers sit at $302 million. Apparently Middleton is quite a few $millions short of spending what it takes to win. Developing our own talent would be cheaper. Atlanta won last year with $172 million
(now $206 million) and the Marlins are ahead of us spending only $109 million.

[zambonir]

The Mets aren't even getting that much production from Marte, and they are playing Nimmo in CF (Canha in LF). Escobar is just okay. McNeil is their most productive bat. McCann's actually terrible (at the plate at least). Alonso's still no better than Hoskins probably (though he is so far this year).

Yeah, they spent big, but the Phillies could have signed any one or more of the same guys. Or decided they needed a pitcher.