GDT 4/8/24 Philadelphia Phillies (Turnbull) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Mikolas)

[zambonir]

Team back at .500 again. Time to move out of the mediocre and pile up some wins over .500.

Gonna be really interesting to face the Pirates (currently 9-2) at home. But win this road series first.

[phillychuck]

Hoffman was pretty unlucky in the ninth, actually. Good win, winning takes the sting out of the blown save.

[bkox]

Rojas now with a higher BA and OPS than Castellanos. Does Casty have options? (kidding.. I know he cant be optioned)

[zambonir]

Well, he'd probably clear waivers, think he'd refuse the assignment?

This is still a guy who made the All-Star team last year and had a .788 OPS even after a less impressive second half. I'm not a fan, it was a terrible signing, and his bat has to be close to elite to make up for him even being in the field (which is now what he was supposed to do when they signed him) but he's probably not cooked either. We don't even get to complain about his terrible NLCS if he doesn't help get them into that round to begin with.

[Austinfan]

Castellanos and Walker are $43M? of potential dead weight the next three seasons.
Right now, Turnbull looks as good or better than Walker did at his best last season.
Anyone from Lehigh could probably out hit Castellanos.

I'm sure Castellanos will turn it around to some extent, but the league has his number, it's not that he's in a slump, since the second half of last season, he's looked like the age curve and lack of discipline have conspired to make him a replacement level player at best. He's 32, an age when players of his caliber approach the cliff.

The crazy thing is who was dumb enough to offer that contract;

RC+ the four years before signing: 129, 122, 98, 140, they signed him off his career season at 29 years old - anyone with a brain would have known he was unlikely to repeat that year - the 4 year average at 122 was a more reasonable expectation. With his below par fielding, that made him a 2 WAR player, worth maybe $15M a year on a 3 year deal. Signing him past age 32 was a horrid mistake.

First two Phillies seasons, RC+ 94, 109, total WAR 0.8, barely above replacement.
This season, I doubt he cracks 100, Next two seasons, just write off the money.

[phillychuck]

You need to find a LH hitting platoon partner for Casty until he learns to lay off the low-and-away breaking pitches (at least a little bit...). Cave? Clemens? It looks like Pasche isn't going to play very much at all, so that is a wasted roster spot.

[zambonir]

Nick was a real blind spot for Dombrowski due to their history in Detroit. He was unexpectedly available and Middleton signed off on exceeding the luxury tax, but the idea that Nick was the player to go all-in on - and with an extra year compared to Schwarber - never made sense, and it's not like his presence is really what elevated the '22 or '23 teams, even if he was okay last year. The injuries and the Harper move also haven't helped as he and Schwarber would have originally just split LF and DH.

AF, if 2.0 WAR is worth $15 million than Walker is properly compensated. Too soon to write him off. And if Turnbull's for real and the Phillies stay healthy/deep enough, even a league-average Walker will have deadline trade value (albeit with the Phillies picking up a lot of salary).

Jake Cave works for the Colorado Rockies now PC! They do have to eventually replace Pache with a LHB if Rojas sticks (and last night's certainly a big step towards sealing that) but I doubt Thomson is in any hurry to make Nick the short side of a platoon.

Even just a LHB/CF who can't hit much would make more sense given that both Rojas and Castellanos are RHBs (as is Merrifield).

[andyb]

Complaining about Castellanos' contract won't change the fact that he is here. Pretty sure this board was universal that it was an overpay and would also likely create a DH logjam (before Harper's injuries). So let's move on and discuss what the Phillies should do today. And if Castellanos can get up to a 780 OPS again then we probably don't have any better alternatives.

Walker is also a fairly valued contract. Sometimes pitchers get hurt and that is why you need more of them. Turnbull is also a 31-year-old pitcher with a career of mediocrity (4.39 ERA, 8.4/3.4 K/BB ratio). Fine as a back end 6th starter but I am not buying a renaissance based on 2 starts in cold weather in a league unfamiliar with him. All his stuff moves, but he does not command it well and most of the movement is in the same direction (so more exposure could have lesser results). I like having him as insurance, but I'd still bet Walker contributes more positively by the end of the season.

[Callison]

Turnbull looked better to me this time than the last. He pitches like that and he stays in the rotation. It's only two games, but he looks for real, IMHO. I really like the Phils' strategy of amassing a bunch of pitchers with upsides and waiting for one or two of them to get their rhythm. Like Turnbull. And like Pinto, the reincarnation of Bruce Sutter. I can hardly wait to see him pitch again. Closer candidate, though Big Rob, the man of mystery, seems to prefer to decide who closes by considering the matchups. But today I expect Pinto to win it anyway.

Really glad to see Rojas hit. Today, he's up, up, up all the way up to .154!!! But the hitting today SHOWS he learning the new approach. Also taking a walk now and then. Last season he was so aggressive, I doubt he walked much. Haven't seen him bunt yet. Last season he may have set a record for popping up bunt attempts, showing lack of coaching. Nice diving catch early in the game, too, but everybody expects All Star D from him.

The Casty problem is getting bigger. The Phils seem to think, well, he's a pro, he can see what's happening and he'll go correct it. Hasn't happened. The Phils' coaches need to come up with an approach. Maybe wait on him another half a season. No big improvement, sign some LH OF hitter that can take up the slack. That's two players for one position, not what you'd want to do, but what you may have to do. Hope Casty gets it together.

After all the consistency Hoffman showed last season, he's come up with back-to-back disasters. What IS it???

Pache got a start and responded with an 0 - 2. Buried talent.

JT seems to like #4.

I never thought I would say this, but let Soto play a few games at 2B while Stott finds his swing.

[julio]

I never thought I would say this, but let Soto play a few games at 2B while Stott finds his swing.

?????

[bkox]

He means Sosa

[julio]

Well, that makes more sense.

[bkox]

Well, that makes more sense.

yeah Soto's arm would be wasted at 2nd.. should be a SS.

[Austinfan]

I dunno, does he have the range for SS? Maybe 3B, but can he hit the slider?

[zambonir]

Y'know, the team is 3-1 on this road trip and the 5-5 start is their best since 2021 (even if that's not saying much). Some guys are off to good starts and some aren't. But they stuck with a below average Nick Castellanos who never got better for all of 2022 and they stuck with a below average Trea who did for all of 2023. Nobody's losing their job or even getting benched for a few days in April or May.

[Callison]

Only a 2-letter error!

[phillychuck]

Forgot they moved Cave.

Would really be nice if they could find a nice lefty bat that could play corner OF on the market somewhere.

[andyb]

Would really be nice if they could find a nice lefty bat that could play corner OF on the market somewhere.

They boxed themselves in a corner with Merrifield because they just wanted him and did not care he hit right-handed. Most of the questionable bats in the lineup are right-handed especially if one adds Casty to Rojas and Pache.

I think the Phillies see the Pache situation as temporary until they figure out if Rojas will stick. If Rojas is still here in a month or two Pache might be replaced by a left-handed bat.

[zambonir]

I think you're still on the money. It will be Clemens, or Dahl. But if Castellanos and Merrifield still have numbers like this in July, they will have to make a move more like 2022 (trading for Marsh) than last year (when they merely replaced Josh Harrison with Castro), whether it's a LH or RH OF.

But for now, nothing has changed. Rojas still needs to definitively stick, and until he does, Pache is just here for insurance, and him being lightly used or leaving Thomson with one less PH arrow every once in a while will be tolerated.

They also boxed themselves into a corner with Merrifield because he's not really an OF. Especially not if he isn't hitting.