GDT 4/8/22 Oakland Athletics (Montas) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola)

[kikutaro]

Kyle too?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I think it was rookies making the opening day debut with the Phillies

[bkeich]

I think this off-season went from "oh crap" to excitement with the Schwarber and Castellanos signings. It is going to be an interesting season.

Fun start

[donaldorc]

What happened to the PTITWCFTP (or something like that)?

[LoneStarPhan]

I don’t know why he left him in. Six innings on opening day after a short spring training was a terrific start. Not far to leave Nola out there when he s homer prone.

I agree and was really surprised when Nola came out to start the seventh inning. So the pitching ends up getting the first 6 innings from Nola with only one hit and one run followed by 4 relievers for a total of 3 innings without a run charged to any. We saw it several times last season when Nola hit a skid and was roughed up like he was today in the seventh. I was pretty upset at the time but the offense came back to score 3 more after Nola left the game, so that makes it easier to not dwell on the seventh inning.

A good win where offense overcame Nola's clearly losing it combined with some not stellar fielding, that could cost ballgames. Luckily, not today.

[xogfog]

PTOITWCFTFP

"Put This One In The Win Column For The Fightin' Phills" is how Scott Graham used to call the end of a Phillies win when he was the announcer.

[donaldorc]

Yes, I am aware of what it means and where it came from. It’s just that one poster, whose name I forget, always posted it after a Phillies’ win. I was surprised by the seeming lack of enthusiasm for this first game of the year and a good win.

[julio]

Actually,

PTOITWCFTPP!

Put this one in the win column for the Phightin’ Phils!

I wasn’t the “every game thread” poster of this, but I did throw it in last season occasionally (when it no longer happened automatically). I was away from the computer last evening (this happens with a 3 pm game - I was in the kitchen, making dinner happen, when the game ended. Had it on audio, but no input). Like most such things, it really should be a community thing, not “owned” by one poster.

[BaseballCat]

seeming lack of enthusiasm

I am tempering my enthusiasm in preparation for a 162-0 season!! Go Phils

[Austinfan]

I wanted to strangle Girardi.

This is also the reason I'm wary of an extension for Nola, when he's on he can be magnificent, especially when he uses that two seamer like he used to (command was off but still effective), but it's obvious he has limited arm strength - and when he hits the wall, his velo falls off rapidly and his command goes to hell. Even when stretched out he starts to fall off after pitch #75. And he seems to wear down at the end of seasons.

This raises a dilemma, how to value a guy who might be a #1 for 180 IP, #5 for innings 181-200, and a question mark if they make the playoffs (i.e what will he have left in the tank), as September is his worst month (along with June?).

[donaldorc]

I am tempering my enthusiasm in preparation for a 162-0 season!! Go Phils

I love it!

[andyb]

Agree. The temptation to get that extra inning out of Nola because he is cruising has always been there too much. Opening day on a short spring training I am fine with 75 pitches. In a normal spring I'd be fine with 90-95 the first couple of games too. They are playing 162 games.

A midseason Nola can probably safely get up to 110 pitches, especially on a warm July day. But there is no reason to push him towards 90 in April.

[Austinfan]

Even in midseason, give Nola's tendency to wear down by September, I'd be careful about not overworking him, especially if you think you have a shot at the playoffs. They should give him an extra day of rest whenever the schedule permits.

Wheeler, Eflin and Suarez are better bets to go deeper into games.
Suarez b/c he's so effortless in his delivery, the other two when healthy are horses.

The temptation with Nola is when he's on, he's so dominant that it's easy to be seduced into that extra inning, especially when you don't know what you have in the pen. Hopefully, this year's bullpen looks that it could actually be solid, though we don't know what Brogdon, Falter, et al provide on the back end.

[andyb]

I am not sure anyone but Wheeler is really suited physically to consistently go deep in games. We have never tested it with Suarez, and Eflin keeps breaking down so I am not sure he is suited either. Now they might be better able to get in the 8th inning in 100 pitches if they are economical, but I think getting Suarez to 110 pitches consistently might be bad for him in the same way it is bad for Nola.

[zambonir]

This is also the reason I'm wary of an extension for Nola

I'd be shocked if he gets an extension. He probably wants to hit the open market and they'll probably let him. Locking him up early (i.e. rip up his option) for 3-4 years would be one thing, but as a 30 year-old FA looking for another 4-5, nah.

[andyb]

He won't get Scherzer money but there is no reason Nola should not get Gausman/Robbie Ray money. Those guys are 30 and got 5/115 and 5/110. Nola has been more consistent and durable though I guess his strike is he was better earlier in his career.

I think somebody goes 5-6 years on Nola and the AAV is in the $23 to $25 million range. That is not an immediate "No" for me if he settles down into 190 innings of 3.50 ERA this year (which is where his FIP trended last year). One wants Girardi to not push him towards 200+ innings, but the one thing Nola has been is consistently better than average and one who rarely misses a start.

[zambonir]

Maybe his recent struggles and unvaccinated status color it, but to me he just doesn't feel like a guy whose first choice would be Philadelphia, nor the sort of homegrown franchise icon the general fan base would weep over losing at this point (which is also an unfortunate byproduct of being the most elite player on a bunch of bad teams).

I wouldn't rule it out either though. And it would be a drag if he wound up on the Braves (an obvious fit along with Houston if he wants to be closer to home).

[Austinfan]

Hopefully, by that time Abel and Painter will be ready, Saurez will have established himself, and one or two other pitchers in the system progress where they can fill out the back of a rotation.

That's why producing home grown talent is so important, those 3-4 years of cheap starts allows you to overpay one or two guys at the top of the rotation. Same holds for the pen.

[allentown]

and one who rarely misses a start.

But hasn't he had arm problems requiring at least brief shutdowns the past two seasons?

[bkox]

32 starts last year. Think he missed one around the AS break because of a positive COVID test.

never missed a start in 2020. 1 in July, 5 in August and 6 in September