GDT 4/4/21 Atlanta Braves (Anderson) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin)

[Austinfan]

You could see it last season, once he made the 2 seamer his primary pitch, everything started falling into place.

Houston screwed up Appel the same way, dominated college with a 2 seamer, then they try to make him a power 4 seam pitcher.

The key with the 2 seamer is movement, velocity is nice, but if you can throw a pitch with movement and command, the way Nola and Eflin paint the outside part of the plate against RH hitters, you don't need to throw as hard as Wheeler. The key with Nola has been his changeup, with his curve and 2 seamer, that keep hitters off-balance.

[andyb]

I was told Eflin was a #4 at best and I was foolish projecting him as a 2/3.

He still has to prove he is better than a #4. He hasn't done that yet. Sustained performance is the way to do it. Why do you have this silly insistence of trying to prove you are right all the time. Eflin is better now largely because he developed a curveball as a swing and miss pitch. None of that really could be anticipated when he was striking out only 6 or 7 batters per nine. The 2-seam fastball version of him without a good curveball was a back end starter and not a number 3.

Just enjoy his success. It happened in a way that his history really did not predict. Good for him.

[Philsmania]

I was told Eflin was a #4 at best and I was foolish projecting him as a 2/3.

It was one start. I do believe Eflin has potential as a 2/3 but... lets not forget that in 2019 he also dominated his first start... striking out 9 in 5 innings and giving up no runs versus the eventual world series winning Nats. That season he was still sub 3 ERA through mid June and finished above 4.

He needs to show me a full season.

True, but after--according to clubhouse legend--he tuned Young out, he finished strongly in August and September when the rest of the team collapsed around him. Take away an utterly horrific July ( 0-4, 11.88 ERA, 2.280 WHIP, 29 H in 16.2 IP), he had a good season though I suppose that goes to your argument of needing to be good for an entire season.

[phillychuck]

I really don't like labelling starters as #1, #2, etc. That varies throughout the year as health and feel for pitches come and go. I really would divide starters into 3 bins--> Top-line/mid-rotation/fringe

We have two top line starters, Eflin is mid-rotation trying to improve to top-line, and Anderson and Moore are fringe, but might be better since each is showing signs of improving over the last year or so.

Honestly, these determinations are best made after the season, in retrospect. Then projecting someone like Nola to be top-line is based on a few seasons of MLB results rather than pure guesswork. I think it's pretty silly taking a minor league guy (like Howard) and saying he projects to one level or another. That's purely guesswork and prejudiced by baseball's infatuation with velocity/stuff. VV still projects to a #1or #2 starter based on his stuff. If we had not seen him pitch over the last 4 years and he just showed up in spring training, everyone would think he would "project" to a #1. That's sort of why everyone is down on him, he's never lived up to his projection, which was probably not "fair" in the first place.

[allentown]

I can certainly see Eflin as a #3. In any case, he is exactly the sort of guy the Phillies desperately need more of: recently up from the farm, relatively cheap, relatively young, relatively healthy, and a plus performer who should provide positive WAR. Can't balance a salary budget without a bunch of guys like him.

[zambonir]

If memory serves nobody thought Nola projected higher than #3. And Eflin was never not a prospect, for that matter. Scouts and general managers and pitching coaches can't always get this stuff right either. Baseball's hard.

It would be great if he's the real deal and one of the other two guys is average to above-average. That would mean, especially with Howard also available, that we don't see too much of Vince or wind up being tempted to to chase a higher-end rotation piece at the deadline... or even in the off-season.

Anderson and Moore are fringe, but might be better since each is showing signs of improving over the last year or so.

I don't know that I would say that, since Moore was once a #1-starter prospect and has only shown signs of returning to form in Japan. And Anderson is 33 and didn't show anything at all in the past year, nor has he been better than fringe for three. Theey are just hoping 2020 was anomalous rather than a sharp decline. Certainly he seemed to have plenty left in Clearwater.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I can certainly see Eflin as a #3.

Maybe between a 3 and a 4 - I'd say 3.14159

[Philsmania]

I really don't like labelling starters as #1, #2, etc. That varies throughout the year as health and feel for pitches come and go. I really would divide starters into 3 bins--> Top-line/mid-rotation/fringe

We have two top line starters, Eflin is mid-rotation trying to improve to top-line, and Anderson and Moore are fringe, but might be better since each is showing signs of improving over the last year or so.

Honestly, these determinations are best made after the season, in retrospect. Then projecting someone like Nola to be top-line is based on a few seasons of MLB results rather than pure guesswork. I think it's pretty silly taking a minor league guy (like Howard) and saying he projects to one level or another. That's purely guesswork and prejudiced by baseball's infatuation with velocity/stuff. VV still projects to a #1or #2 starter based on his stuff. If we had not seen him pitch over the last 4 years and he just showed up in spring training, everyone would think he would "project" to a #1. That's sort of why everyone is down on him, he's never lived up to his projection, which was probably not "fair" in the first place.

A friend of mine actually thinks that Wheeler not Nola may be our actual ace. Nola needs to not run out of gas in September again.

[BostonRoss]

I can certainly see Eflin as a #3.

Maybe between a 3 and a 4 - I'd say 3.14159

Seems like circular reasoning...

[zambonir]

Is that his ERA or his PiP?