GDT 4/30/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta) @ Miami Marlins (Straily)

[LoneStarPhan]

An inning of work for Z. Curtis. Did okay.

I just don't know what to think about Santana. Earlier in the year, my memory tells me he was hitting balls hard into outs. Of late, it seems he is not. Regardless, his numbers are not good enough to hold a starting job. Of course, he will continue to start and he may turn his season around, but so far, it is unsatisfactory.

I was wondering if the run was scoring while the right fielder lay on the ground after the catch but no, he was returning to third. Seems to me that is a coaching blunder. The runner was half way home and had to go back so no chance to consider sending him when Anderson made contact with the ball. I guess they figure it is too shallow but regardless, the result was no runs from a bases loaded, one out situation. Hoskins also has been struggling for a couple games, but at least he has hit well for most of the season. Santana is pretty much oh for the season.

While I'm ranting, it seems to me I have seen more attempted bare handed grabs of slow grounders so far this season than I can recall in any past season. Do they ever actually get the ball? At least two misses just tonight.

Not a good night tonight. Three games in a row of poor play.

[Philsmania]

I just don't know what to think about Santana. Earlier in the year, my memory tells me he was hitting balls hard into outs. Of late, it seems he is not. Regardless, his numbers are not good enough to hold a starting job. Of course, he will continue to start and he may turn his season around, but so far, it is unsatisfactory.

Like I said about him a couple of days ago, the statute of limitations is running out on "it's still early". Perhaps he's trying to do other things in an effort to hit the ball where the fielders aren't and that is affecting how well he is hitting the ball. The friend I share season tickets with long ago adopted the Indians as his second favorite team and pays attention to them tells me that he has never particularly been a fan of Santana. In his opinion, aside from walking a lot and playing good defense, he doesn't give you all that much and is something of a poor man's Bobby Abreu.

Regardless, I think he and Hoskins who has also been quiet lately (0 for his last 13, eight game HR drought, only one extra base hit in the last seven games) can use days off.

[Austinfan]

Alfaro and Franco could be brothers, when both hitters relax, don't try and hit 500 foot HRs, they're dangerous - when they press and try to kill the ball, their swings get out of whack and they strike out.

Alfaro's HR was a thing of beauty, a relaxed swing, kept his hands back, took a curve 400+ feet.

Arrieta looked awful, no command, hopefully it's a one game thing.

[zambonir]

Corey Seidman (CSeidmanNBCS)

One never knows with an aging player but his career OPS is between .722-.782 in April/May/June and .800-.892 in July/Aug/September.

And you can't really discount the BABIP thing..267 in his career. .167 this year. Will it normalize? Dunno. But since the only real alternative to Santana for playing time is an OF with a lower OPS and OBP (Williams) I'd stick with him.

[andyb]

If Williams is not hitting (and it will be really hard for him to get going in sporadic playing time) the alternative is really Quinn.

Now I don't advocate sitting Santana. I do buy the bad luck argument from the early going, but a low BABIP for an older, slower player does make sense and the shifts might hurt him too. Santana will always walk a lot, but the rest of his game may be more of the .240 average and 20 HR variety these days. He'll get a half season of leash, but given his age it is probably not the worst thing to rest him once a week anyway and let Hoskins occasionally play 1B. It would be a way to get Valentin in the lineup a bit more other than sitting Kingery or Franco.

[Austinfan]

.267 is a low BABIP, .167 is a streak of SSS bad luck.

[mdougherty12]

AL pitchers collectively had a .210 BABIP in 359 PA in 2017, and NL pitchers were at .213 in 4875 PA. This would seem to set a lower bound on BABIP over large samples.

[andyb]

Santana's BABIP level will most likely normalize back to something closer to his career mark, maybe a bit lower to account for age (like .250, not .167). Santana hits the ball in the air a lot and the defenses now shift so more balls to the outfield probably get caught.

The small danger sign in Santana's record was his home run decline from 34 to 23 in a year when the HR rate increased. Positive sign this year is the BB/K rates which are pretty close to career norms. That and the exit velocity suggests his bat speed is not decreasing. He just may have a bit less power and the shifts and SSS analysis are not helping him. He is a career .247 hitter so he'll never hit for average. But .240 should be his new norm, not .150.

[zambonir]

If Williams is not hitting (and it will be really hard for him to get going in sporadic playing time) the alternative is really Quinn.

But they won't actually do that. If they decided to sit Santana once or twice a week for Hoskins, Williams would be given every chance to take advantage of those LF ABs. As it is they are having trouble finding ABs for him and the same would be true for Quinn, especially with Kingery in the mix. With Kingery at SS they could have brought Quinn up - Florimon still gives them a second SS - but they didn't. We'll probably see Valentin get an OF start at some point though. Or hey, maybe 1B.

[tom81]

But they won't actually do that.

While this may be true it is not the correct move. This so reminds me of the Tommy Joeseph / Rhys Hoskins situation last year. Williams partial season on the big club last year should have no bearing on him staying on the big club this year when he is not performing and his young mate is putting up good numbers in AAA. Williams needs steady AB’s to get his swing/timing down and Quinn would probably be much more useful in the limited MLB role. If I was in charge I would go all the way and have Quinn start in LF and Hoskins 1B until Santana starts hitting.

[Austinfan]

On the other hand, if Quinn can stay healthy, he has more upside than Williams, so I'd want him playing every day in Lehigh, because he's missed so many PA the last few minor league seasons.

[tom81]

I understand that logic but I’m so tired of waiting for the future I want this team to make a run for the playoffs this year and feel the development will get made in time.

[zambonir]

The playoffs are probably not a serious goal and long-term roster development is a far more important one. The W-L record we just saw in April is not that different from two of the last three seasons when the teams turned out to be genuinely bad. This team won't be, but in any case, its playoff hopes don't turn on the performance of the 4th OF/second bench bat. If Crawford, Alfaro, Franco and the middle of the starting rotation don't come around it's not gonna matter what Williams or Santana do. And why is there any reason to think Quinn will do any better than Kingery or Williams? Especially if part-time/inconsistent usage is part of the problem?

If Kingery ends up going back down or if they give up on Franco, that would open up a bench spot for Quinn. Or if Altherr and Williams together truly don't turn it around, maybe you do eventually send Williams back down and demote Altherr to 4th OF for Quinn. But I don't really believe a Quinn/Hoskins team is going to be better than a Hoskins/Santana team.

Plus if you really think the current record/spot in the standings is sustainable, why not just sustain?

[tom81]

And why is there any reason to think Quinn will do any better than Kingery or Williams?

Quinn has one thing that no one on the team has, an 80 speed tool. Speed doesn’t go on slumps and doesn’t need steady practice. If you aren’t going to play Williams regularly you might as well get the guy with the tools for the role in the role. It sounds like the Phillies are thinking about it.

Triple-A outfielder Roman Quinn started his first game in right field on Monday. He had started every previous game in center. Do not read too much into that, only because the Phillies make a point to play players at multiple positions.

But one source said the idea that the Phillies could swap Quinn for Williams is a consideration. The Phillies are not there yet.

J.P. Crawford placed on DL with forearm strain

[zambonir]

I guess if I do that it's mostly to see if Williams can get on track with more ABs, not because Quinn makes the team better. He can help the team, certainly, but he could already be here instead of Valentin in that case.

The real issue is Williams has no future, I suspect. As the lefty bat he theoretically could be getting more opportunities than Altherr and even spelling Hoskins, but Altherr's better in the field and Hoskins has the bat and is going to start 155 games. Even Altherr and Quinn may be redundant (one or the other) by next year if they stay with a short bench (especially if they sign Harper).