GDT 4/15/24 Colorado Rockies (Quantrill) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa)

[LoneStarPhan]

A terrific game from Nola and good bull pen work keeps the Phillies in the game and set up the walk off win in the tenth.

Yes, best start in the last couple years.

[zambonir]

I'm okay with 92 or 93 wins even!

I get that it's no fun to watch but like Thomson said if you don't think these guys are doing to slug you haven't been watching (the last two years, I presume he meant). That's not to say there aren't some isolated concerns. I am also fairly swayed by the theory that their attempt to fix an offense that wasn't actually broken broke it. Best-case this is still a transitional period for the adjustments and modified approach; otherwise some of these guys need to go back to chasing and free swinging if it's who they are. Kyle Schwarber is not currently a better player over the Mendoza Line then he was below it last year.

[zambonir]

I couldn't post fast enough to jinx him but I did type it before the hit!

It's kind of hilarious that this is the Phillies best start since the two Kapler seasons. I like the recent trend better.

[fish]

Was Ricky Botallico wearing Donald’s fund raising sneakers? So nice to see they are expanding on ways to make we want turn off these games .

[phillychuck]

This team cannot hit. Every game is a slog. Colorado pitchers in the first 7 IP had era's over 6.00 and over 10.00 coming into the game and we score 1 run on them.

[zambonir]

Oh man I heard that exchange verbally but did not have any clue what it referenced. But I already thought Ricky was pretty mush-brained (like, I don't care much for Curt's politics either but he's not stupid).

[Austinfan]

They can't go back to chasing and swinging b/c last season showed a good pitching staff can easily shut them down if they do so - the problem with Castellanos, for example, is he's not going to see inside FBs from good pitchers again in his career if he keeps chasing breaking balls away. Everyone has extensive video cutups these days, show a flaw and the whole league will exploit it in weeks, rather than years. It's just a matter of hitters putting the work in. It's not rocket science, stop chasing bad pitches and you'll get more good pitches to hit.

Nola threw better 90-92, t93, but still below his norm of 92-93, t95. Working in a cutter, which he'll need if he can't regain his historic velocity. Command was still spotty. What works against a bad team will get a quick exit against the Braves.

[andyb]

Nola threw better 90-92, t93, but still below his norm of 92-93, t95.

Not sure why you are incessantly looking at his velocity. He actually averaged 92.4 on his 4-seamer yesterday so more than you suggest. Nola was fine. He'll probably never consistently average 94+ again because he is older. But if he is locating all his pitches and retains the shape of his curve, he'll be just fine. He probably is closer to a number 3 starter these days than a number 2, but he is more durable than most number 2s and 3s and that is why he got his contract.

[zambonir]

It's just a matter of hitters putting the work in. It's not rocket science, stop chasing bad pitches and you'll get more good pitches to hit.

It's not rocket science but that doesn't mean everyone will be able to do it. Which will ultimately mean the end of their careers but if Nick C is still capable of hitting 25 home runs and batting .270 jumping on mistakes and being the same guy he's always been you take it until he isn't (or until you dump him). What happened against the DBacks was still as much a small sample, randomness and myriad other factors (our pitching wasn't good enough either).

Anyway, this isn't exactly a theoretical discussion, if also still a small sample and potential adjustment period. The Phillies have successfully reduced their chase rate by almost 2% compared to 2022 (a bit less compared to 2023). And their offense (and power, and quality of contact) is worse.

[Austinfan]

To jump on mistakes you have to avoid getting yourself in a hole and letting the pitch avoid throwing strikes.
It's when you're ahead in the count and the pitcher is trying to paint corners but misses when most mistakes are made.
The hitters that age the best are selective, know what they can't handle and wait for that one or two pitches an AB and give it their best shot, Schmidt, Thome, etc.
The two things that kill aging hitters are chasing balls and trying to pull everything as their power declines (Howard).

Yes there may be an adjustment period, but if these hitters don't learn to be more selective, hacking away will quickly end their careers.You'd think with the money at stake, they'd be looking for every edge, but like "normal" people, a lot of players are afraid to leave their comfort zone and try anything new.

[andyb]

The thing that kills aging hitters is slowing batspeed, not chasing per se. Sometimes older hitters chase because they have to guess a bit more. That strategy CAN be effective though. It can add power to compensate for the declining batspeed and lower average.

All hitters are different. They are not all Joe Morgan and Barry Bonds. A patient approach is not the right solution for everyone. Bryce could probably be a bit more aggressive now for instance.

[zambonir]

I just think there is a lot of room in the Venn diagram between "can't" and "won't." Plus the pitching is also tougher than ever.

And of course, none of the Phillies players have any money at stake in any meaningful way.

If being more selective has somehow turned Kyle Schwarber into a 30HR hitter who bats .237 and can't hit righties instead of a 47-HR hitter who hits .197 that's not going to get him paid in 2026 either.

(Not worried about Schwarber though - him mashing lefties is hardly a bad thing and he'll surely come around otherwise)

[andyb]

I think Schwarber is cutting down his swing a bit to raise his average and hit lefties better. The performance against RHP is clearly SSS and nothing to worry about. Left unanswered though is whether the revised approach is better or worse in a larger sample.

[allentown]

The thing that kills aging hitters is slowing batspeed, not chasing per se.

Actually, two sides of the same coin. Bat speed slows and then the hitter guesses and starts the swing sooner than previously in order to try to catch up to good FB. That's inevitable for guys with a basically good, but slowing swing after enough swing velocity is lost. If a batter has a long load time or a lot of preliminary fidgets in his swing, that is something he can correct to compensate for initial loss of swing speed. Before too many years, all hitters reach an age where they cannot effectively handle MLB pitching. For some that is 30, others can go to mid-upper 30s, the very rare hitter to 40 or so. This is why Harper's bid for an extension is so ludicrous. His start to the season is, of course, another strong argument. He is already likely to be very well paid well into his deeply declining seasons.

The Phillies had better do well this season. The team and salary budget are structured such that it is almost certainly increasingly downhill from here. If Painter turns out at the top of projections post-TJ and Abel comes through, those could be difference makers which provide some $ for a younger offensive star.

[Austinfan]

They need Painter and Abel, but also 2-3 position players to be 4+ starters in 2026 or 2027.
Say Miller at 3B, Caba at SS, Crawford in RF.
With Schwarber, Walker and Castellanos off the books ($60+M), you can carry a declining Turner, Harper, Wheeler and Nola as long as they're still solid players, if no longer stars. With an opening at DH, you can rest veterans or set up an inexpensive platoon.

[zambonir]

Assuming they don't re-sign JT at anything other than an 80-game rate they have room to reset after 2025. But they are still in a window to win this year and next with the three starting pitchers as well as the bats. That will come with some real costs (in money or trade assets or lost picks) if this core needs augmenting in July or next year.

Right now I see no reason to think this year's team isn't any worse - and is possibly better - than last year's team. If the offense we are seeing now is still the offense on July 1, not so much.

[andyb]

We know it all falls apart if they don't develop young players. So we don't need to keep bemoaning the fact that we are a bit older and there is potential to decline. As Z said, this is a team built to win now and built largely by spending money.

The key questions are can this team win and what tweaks they might need to get there. The Braves are vulnerable now on the pitching side. This team is vulnerable offensively at the moment though things could improve. The one thing they probably CAN do is pick between Pache and Rojas and get a left-handed OF bat. Sending Rojas down for some regular playing time is probably the way to do that. Then get a left-handed bat that is better than Merrifield (last year's version as anything is better than this year's version) in a platoon role for some LF and RF playing time.

That is what they can do now. That and hope the pitching continues to be good and hitters like Casty get back to close what they were last year which is still a decent bet.