GDT 4/14/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Archer)

[andyb]

Arrieta is still working into game shape, but it's obvious the velocity decline is for real.
He's got great movement, TB was driving the ball into the ground all game.
But only 1 K, this is why Klentak wouldn't offer more than 3 years.

Isn't working into shape a reason to maybe not draw any conclusions about velocity decline? And since there is no indication of a health problem here, isn't it very possible that Arrieta has remade himself into a 92 mph pitcher with plus movement because it was more sustainable than being a 94 mph pitcher? And then you highlight the "1 K" this week. Last start was 5 Ks in 4 IP. Maybe let's allow the sample size to grow a bit before implying he can't miss bats.

Every post just seems to knock pitchers like Arrieta and Velasquez that you just don't like who don't fit your mold. Arrieta is throwing as hard or harder than Eickhoff was when you were claiming that Eickhoff was a number three starter or better (and gushing about him).

To me it looks like Arrieta's first couple of outings were experiments that finished his Spring fitness training. First start was about going out there and seeing what his stuff looked like. Second start was a little more about pitching because the pitch counts from the first ragged start were too high. It really seemed to me that he was trying to minimize pitch counts to give the team 6-7 innings and he kind of knew he was pitching against a weaker lineup that were not going to take too many mistakes out of the park.

Is Arrieta what he was a couple of years ago? No. Is he still pretty good? Hopefully though I admit it is too early to tell. There is a risk with any pitcher (like Eickhoff) where we sometimes don't know if they are operating at 90% or 70% of their physical capabilities. And the big reason you opposed the signing was of course money. Since the team was hard pressed to use the money on anything else then it does not seem to be much of a reason to oppose the signing.

I will reiterate that the biggest thing to have happened this Spring is the positive starts by Velasquez and Pivetta. They actually have the stuff where you can see them as consistent mid-rotation starters if they put it together. With Nola and Arrieta that could make for a formidable top 4 rotation spots. With all the off days in the schedule (and if the Phillies wanted to skip the number 5 spot occasionally) that is kind of all you need. Then whatever we get from Lively and Eflin and Eickhoff and others is a nice bonus or insurance.

[andyb]

I was thinking the same. I'm glad Kapler listened to me and put Hoskins at DH.

Wouldn't mind seeing Santana DH and Hoskins at 1B today. Would like to see a Williams-Herrera-Altherr OF once in a while.

[zambonir]

Altherr seems to be the next guy who needs an extra day off. I know he brings the defense no matter what but you might think Williams would get a little more action given he's left-handed.

[Austinfan]

You're the one constantly harping on velocity.

Arrieta has enough to be a top starter if he can replicate his second half of last season, but Nola actually had a better season with similar stuff (i.e. 92-93 velocity).
Both pitchers rely on movement and command, and both are better than Pivetta and Velasquez right now.

I said nice things about Velasquez his last two starts, but he has to show his new found command is sustainable, if the new PC has taught him to gear back and not overthrow, that could be a major change - which is why pitchers are so hard to project, changes in mechanics or adding a plus secondary pitch (Neris and Garcia with the splitter) can make a huge difference.

Eflin has similar stuff to Pivetta and Velasquez, just needs a few months in AAA to work on his mechanics (integrating his lower body now that he's been able to strengthen his legs after surgery). If he has a strong first half, I can see Klentak moving Lively or Eickhoff at the trade deadline, because it could get pretty crowded, especially if Kilome, Romero and other Reading pitchers push for promotions.

All of a sudden, this staff is starting to look deeper than expected, in the bullpen, Arano, Ramos and Rios are looking pretty solid, if they have to send two of them back to Lehigh when Leiter, Hunter and Neshak return, they'll have pretty solid depth there as well.

[andyb]

Eflin has similar stuff to Pivetta and Velasquez, just needs a few months in AAA to work on his mechanics

I actually don't harp on velocity. It is important. Just nowhere near everything. This sentence for instance. Eflin does not have similar stuff to these guys. Velocity may be similar. Movement and secondary pitches are not, however. Eflin throws a pretty straight 95 and his secondary pitches don't miss bats that much.

You have become much more of an Eflin fan. Probably because you liked him as an alternative to signing an Arrieta (where the right answer was always why can't we have both?). And you keep mentioning that he will get better after surgery. Well that surgery was BEFORE last season in 2016. I don't think there are more improvements coming because of his surgeries. But because you know like him it is of course an excuse. Eflin could get better. The velocity is a major tool to build on, especially if he can add some movement or a better out pitch. But that really has nothing to do with his 2016 surgery any more.

[DurhamBull]

I was thinking the same. I'm glad Kapler listened to me and put Hoskins at DH.

Wouldn't mind seeing Santana DH and Hoskins at 1B today. Would like to see a Williams-Herrera-Altherr OF once in a while.

That's a good thought. Hoskins needs to keep his 1B skills sharp, too.

[zambonir]

I bet we even see Kingery at 1B at some point, though it hardly seems necessary.