GDT 10/4/23 Miami Marlins (Garrett, B) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa)

[bkox]

[bkox]

Craig Kimbrel:

"I saw it from afar last year. It was the reason I came here, understanding the passion these guys have, the fun they want to have, how much they enjoy doing it with each other. It's a big part of coming over here. You come here and you're part of the family."

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) October 5, 2023

[zambonir]

Wait I thought velocity didn't matter?

He'll get hooked earlier in a similar situation (or closer game) against the Braves. He surely would have gotten hooked earlier last night too if it had still been 3-0.

[zambonir]

And could have at any time last night too....

The Phillies trust Nola, but they’re not totally sure about it. The first call to the bullpen came before Nola’s 59th pitch. It was the fifth inning. Gregory Soto started to throw in the pen. Then, Nola induced an inning-ending double play.

In the sixth, even before Nola plunked Berti to begin the inning, José Alvarado started to warm up.

Jorge Soler started the seventh with a single. Jeff Hoffman started to throw in the bullpen this time. Nola needed only 13 pitches to escape without damage.

How Aaron Nola and the Phillies honed their focus for October and picked off the...

[phillychuck]

The playoffs are different, they are not going to let a starter work through tough innings if he doesn't have his 'A' stuff.

Trust, but have a solid alternative plan in place...

[zambonir]

Of course these days many playoff managers pull their starter too early, at least in public opinion. Toronto did it last night, Thomson did it with Wheeler last year (though I don't think he was wrong there), Dodgers in 2020. Phillies might be the only team of those three where the decision doesn't come at least in part from the front office.

[andyb]

Nola had decent stuff last night. Curveball was working and location was decent.

Velocity averages were above his season and career averages. 93.4 on his 4-seamer and 91.9 on his sinker. Season averages were 92.8 and 91.8. He has averaged in the 92s on his sinker before but never more than 93.3 on the 4-seamer in any year.

Now velocity has increased in Nola's 9 years in the majors in general, but the Nola today pretty much is the rookie Nola velocity-wise. He needs better command today because hitters are better and balls fly out of the park, but there really are not too many signs that he is skaky out there.

He has always been a number 3 starter stuff-wise with command that elevates him to a number 2 and durability that sometimes gives him the effectiveness of a number one.

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=605400&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=10/05/2023

[Austinfan]

Problem was his velo fell off after 50 or so pitches and with 5 days rest - that's not a good sign in a season when they went out of their way to "baby" his arm.

His command was good at times, but also erratic at times, especially the curve which he struggled to get close to the K-zone (I hate wasted pitches that are so far off the K-zone that you can't get a hitter to bite, giving away balls is how you get into bad situations and run up your pitch count).

Vintage Nola could spot the two seamer where ever he wanted, now he has five pitches but even he's admitted it's been a struggle to get more than two working any night. He needs the changeup working to balance the drop in velocity as a game proceeds.

[andyb]

He was still 92-94 in the 7th. Velocity drops over the course of the game by 1-3 mph for just about everyone. You are just noting a problem with his velocity that really isn't there.

Would he have given up more against a better team like the Braves? Probably. But so would every other pitcher in the league.

[zambonir]

And when did they baby his arm? He threw 193 innings, less than last year but more than 2021. Certainly he was still showing the effect of last season/post-season but they didn't actually manage his innings or pitch count, he just got pulled from a few more games for cause. Yeah there was a six-man rotation for a while but that was for everyone (and as much because they didn't want to demote someone, until that someone made it easy).

Regardless of last night or the last two great starts I'm sure they will be very conservative with him going for, but that will be the case with everyone unless they are absolutely dealing. If any of these guys face the top of the Braves order a third time it will mean things are going very well.