Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

California_Dreamin 2020-06-21 03:37:27 UTC #1445

Nope, Patchmk88...I believe you are incorrect. Today's cases are mostly younger people, the people who already would been past this virus if they hadn't been holed up in their houses. They were always going to someday test positive, and they will all be fine. The nursing homes and assisted living centers are now being protected so the numbers will continue to drop, we all know, even the most ardent Cuomo, Newsom and Wolf supporters know that had they taken better care of the nursing homes early on the numbers likely would have been 25-30% lower. No reason to believe the numbers will rise...the numbers for the past 11, read em, 11 weeks of Saturdays are 1381,1943,1788,1790,1639,1524,1289, 1087, 970, 746, 695 and todays 573. Notice a trend? Hardly small sample size.

andyb 2020-06-21 04:51:48 UTC #1446

There is a small downward trajectory in national fatalities. If you take the northeastern states that were hardest hit, NY and NJ, out of it then there really has not been a downward trend though. The trajectory in the US is also very different from Europe. They hit a peak and then declined. We hit a peak and then have had a very slow descent in our stats. It is pretty clear they did a more effective job of social distancing and other related things than we have.

I also think the states where the number of cases are rising like FL and GA are the states not counting probable deaths. Nationally we are still probably missing at least 20%-30% of the deaths due to COVID.

It can be very true that we are on a downward trend and many of the new cases are young and healthy. That still does not mean that we are not opening up too quickly or recklessly though. 200,000 deaths (which we will hit in a few months) is a lot. Yes it could have been 500,000 if we did nothing. We are lucky the disease is not as fatal as we thought it might be (those 2 million potential death range projections). We just did not know that when we shut down the economy and reducing 500,000 deaths to 200,000 is still a good thing (though we probably could have kept it closer to 100,000 if we had been more effective at our shutdown).

jimbomill 2020-06-21 11:42:02 UTC #1447

Or, His answer may be simply "I did not make the virus".

jimbomill 2020-06-21 11:54:23 UTC #1448

I'm on the flip side. I can't believe that we're random with respect to Creation, so to me the only thing that makes sense is God.
As to why He "allows" bad things to happen, I see that as a by product of free will. That, and, Earth is not Heaven. Bad things are a test. Some tests are hard. It is rare that God doesn't allow things to play out. On those rare occasions, I suppose a miracle happens.

andyb 2020-06-21 12:48:53 UTC #1449

The chart comparing mortality rates in the US to Europe. We were almost on the exact same trajectory for the first half of this. Now we are trailing them. Note the US timeline is positioned 12 days later than Europe to equalize the initial trajectory (as in it started a bit earlier in Europe).

Fatalities are decreasing though if you take out NY and NJ, they are really pretty flat nationally. We probably had a big advantage early on compared to Europe because we had less population density. The higher current fatalities are in spite of that inherent advantage.

California_Dreamin 2020-06-21 13:47:21 UTC #1450

Two things here...I am with jimbomill here. I cannot fathom a world without God and have never had a crisis of faith. Without God, life is basically a cesspool and without a God there simply seems to me no basis for the good and evil of the world and how ultimately there is reward and punishment. I hope bkox comes back to his faith, seems like an awfully lonely world if a person is an atheist. And so perplexing. But thats just me talking. And I agree with jimbomill about free will, God had to give us that for us not to simply be automatons, created and then manipulated by him. Because in the end, with free will there is one thing God cannot do, no matter how powerful he is or chooses to be. He cannot make me love him, just cannot do it. Not with free will. I choose to love him because of it. Free will allows that choose not to that choice.

The other thing concerns andyb's comments that if you take out New York and New Jersey our death rate is basically flat. That's really the whole point of this entire coronavirus discussion anyhow, isn't it? Those two states alone, 2 of 50, make up 35% of the 122 thousand deaths, a total of 44,000. Without those two, both of whom mishandled the nursing home crisis early on, we would have 78,000 deaths spread out over 48 states, about 1600 per state on average. We have more drug OD's on average per year than that.

So to me, your very argument proves my very point that now that those two states have the virus under control the numbers are dropping precipitously. And should continue to do so.

andyb 2020-06-21 14:04:55 UTC #1451

You can't just ignore New York though. It is our most international city and our densest region of the country. It would be like Europe deciding not to count Paris, London, and Rome. Or whatever hotspot in Italy was the first big wave. NY did not "mishandle" things worse than any other state. They started with huge disadvantages compared to warmer weather places like CA, TX, and FL. And even if one says there are only 78,000 deaths outside of those 2 states (likely more like 100,000-115,000 if all deaths are counted correctly and trending close to 200,000 by the end of the year), there would have been far, far, more deaths if we had not shut down the economy.

Do anyone honestly think that many deaths were not prevented by shutting down the economy?

andyb 2020-06-21 14:05:46 UTC #1452

But they are not dropping. Take those states out and the virus numbers are not really dropping.

tom81 2020-06-21 16:34:10 UTC #1453

I’m not a believer in a god, or that life is a cesspool without one. I believe in living a “morally good life” and don’t really see a need for an externally imposed set of values to provide rewards and punishments to give my life meaning. Just my 2 cents.

California_Dreamin 2020-06-21 17:00:44 UTC #1454

Of course,tom81 [and by the way, I love your avatar, Johnny Callison in 1964 against the Cardinals, still my favorite player!] the natural question becomes...if no God as you propose, how do you determine what constitutes a "morally good life?" You? Me? Abe Lincoln? Adolph Hitler? In the end, without God, life is a cesspool because man can determine completely on his own what a morally good life constitutes. A polygamist would believe having several wives is morally correct, to an Iranian dictator a world without Jews would be a morally good life, to each and every person his own set of moral standards and rules, and in most cases those standards would be based on what satisfied said person the most.

In short, life would become a cesspool.

allentown 2020-06-21 17:56:06 UTC #1455

By my personal observation, the atheists and agnostics whom I know live as moral lives as the religious people I know. The first large volume written material on ethics and philosophy, one of the foundations of modern Western thinking, were the ancient Greeks whose existence was not built around anything approximating the modern Jewish/Christian/Muslim concept of God. It was a pantheistic nature God culture. Man is capable of thinking about what is moral and coming up with a morally-based (as well as unfortunately being based upon the power dynamics of the day) system of law and justice. Each individual ultimately chooses for him/herself was is moral and how they should live th'eir life to be their best self.

Although I believe in a Creator God, I think about how immoral many Christian denominations and churches have been over the centuries an up to today: the divine right of kings, the persecution of the Jews, the Inquisition, the support of slaver and white supremacy and de jure segegation, the homophobia, the misogyny and circumscribing the life of women, the support of wars, supporting the rich and powerful over the rights of the poor and discriminated against. Not really a source for moral living. I think of the fundamentalist white evangelical churches who preach that God chose President Trump to rule over us. Nope, I think that my natural moral compass is better than that. It is just a ton of prejudice in the name of God.

Start with 'Thou shalt not kill' to assess how far short religion has fallen. Now religion isn't God... fortunately.

bkox 2020-06-21 21:06:51 UTC #1456

CD... are you saying I cant be a good person without believing in God? We have talked on phillies.com and here for like 20 years. I've been an atheist that entire time. You have said you respect me so do you not think I live a moral life?

Let me ask this. Let's say you have 2 almost identical men. One who believes in god and one who doesnt. They both live good lives.. commit small 'sins'... works hard..give to charity.. raises a good family etc.

Man #1 does it to honor god and because he Hope's for a reward of getting into a heavenly paradise after he dies.

Man #2 does it because it's just the right thing to do. He doesnt believe in any life after death so he isnt expecting a reward for it... nor does he fear a punishment if he hadnt lived the way he did.

Which is the better person? The one expecting the reward for the way he lives. Or the one that does it with no expectation of a reward?

And according to the bible.. man #2 would go to ■■■■ (or at least not be admitted to heaven) since he didnt give his life to god. Why? Why would god need such an ego boost that he would punish a good man just because he never worshipped him?

tom81 2020-06-21 21:29:57 UTC #1457

blox this is my fundamental issue with organized religion.

julio 2020-06-21 21:37:51 UTC #1458

The premise seems to be, God created man. If a man believes in God, and worships God, then God will keep that man around. If the man does not, then God will dispose of that man.

The implication is that God created man because God wanted to be worshipped. Needed to be worshipped? I don't know, but in an era when we have to deal with Donald Trump every day (needs to be worshipped, or else throws a fit), it gets harder to swallow "God is a loving father - unless you don't believe in him, or dismiss him, or deny him - in which case it's into the fire with you." That doesn't quite fit my definition of "loving."

Would I throw one of my children into the fire if they renounced me, or my beliefs, or my culture. Ahh... no, I would not. And I don't need an external authority to tell me that would be a bad idea. I most particularly do not need an external authority who is on record as ordering men to turn their rebellious sons over to the village elders, who will have said sons stoned to death - Deuteronomy 21:18-21. Sorry, God, but it seems that Moses kept contemporaneous notes...(if you believe this stuff is literally true).

California_Dreamin 2020-06-21 23:35:53 UTC #1459

bkox...of course I am not saying that, I have no doubt you are a fine and noble man and have always thought so. Many atheists are the salt of the earth and many supposedly religious people are scoundrels. I would never cast a judgement like that. What I said and still believe is that without a ruler maker [God in this case] people can play by any rules they want and justify them regardless of what anyone else says or things. It was God with the 10 Commandments that set up moral and ethical guidelines on how to live and a moral and ethical way.

I also understand that there are many things in the Bible that are difficult to understand and would be very confusing for man to comprehend because God's ways are not mans ways. He tells Job this when questioned about all of Job's suffering. I would not even try to explain it because I am not God. But I do believe God works things for good and in the end no one will be left questioning why something happened during their life...or why they ultimately ended up where they end up. I would never judge because thats not my place.

But I do believe in a loving God and have faith that someday everything we all go through, the pain, the happiness, the loneliness, the love will all make sense and be explained. And for me, I cannot fathom living any other way.

California_Dreamin 2020-06-22 02:19:38 UTC #1460

Another day of good news on the covid death totals...smallest number since April 1...267. With the obvious disclaimer that all of these deaths are a terrible disaster, the numbers continue to show that the virus is weakening, since every one agrees that in the end, its keeping people alive thats the most important stat. Since April 18 here are the Sunday numbers [remember it was the April numbers that were the scariest ones...1559, 1689, 1113, 1117,996, 854, 655, 667, 453, 358, 267.

Like I have been saying for a week now...notice a trend? The numbers are dropping weekly. Oh, and today 7000 less cases and hospitalizations down. Now admittedly the Sunday numbers tend to be smaller which might lead to a bit of a spike tomorrow but even with that acknowledgement the fact remains that we are down 1400 since April 25...two months ago.

The fact is that the death numbers have been on the down slope for two months but people simply don't want to accept this good news. But now that the death totals are slowing precipitously the new scare is about cases...even though 80% of the cases are asymptomatic and many of the cases are the SAME person being tested on 2 separate days, testing positive both days and yet counted as 2 cases when its really only 1. Hospitals are now admitting that if a person comes to a hospital for another mishap, and is then tested for covid and tests positive they are counted as positive in the hospital even though thats not why they came in. In fact, the Rhode Island governor had to admit yesterday that a woman came in with a sprained ankle, tested positive for asymptomatic covid and was counted as a hospital stay for covid. This is simply wrong and does nothing to help us understand the true numbers, which I continue to believe are smaller, not larger, that are being touted.

zambonir 2020-06-22 03:18:31 UTC #1461

COVID 19 is the worst disease process I’ve ever worked with in my 8 years as an ICU nurse.

When they say “recovered” they don’t tell you that that means you may need a lung transplant. Or that you may come back after d/c with a massive heart attack or stroke bc COVID makes
— Cherie Antoinette ( @sheriantoinette ) June 14, 2020

your blood thick as ■■■■. Or that you may have to be on oxygen for the rest of your life. COVID is designed to kill. It is a highly intelligent virus and it attacks everything. We will run out of resources if we don’t continue to flatten the curve.

I’m exhausted.
— Cherie Antoinette ( @sheriantoinette ) June 14, 2020

Lawman 2020-06-22 03:29:57 UTC #1462

I just saw Nate Silver post a thread on twitter. Seems that warm weather is good for stopping virus spread. Hot weather (i.e. stay inside in a/c areas) is not.

Saw someone suggest "cooling degree days" (basically the number of days that it's hot enough out that you'd want the AC on) as a proxy for states where it's currently too hot for people to want to be outdoors. It is indeed quite predictive of current COVID spread.

What's also interesting is that if you add temperature to this, higher temps are associated with lower spread (as most research predicts), controlling for other factors. So heat helps, but being outdoors helps, and you don't want it to be so hot that folks do everything inside.

I would not be surprised if a lot of the early research on weather conflated temperature effects vs. indoor/outdoor effects. If you're comparing places in March, then people will be outdoors more often in warmer places. But that's not necessarily true in the summer.

zambonir 2020-06-22 04:43:02 UTC #1463

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/19/countries-keeping-coronavirus-bay-experts-watch-us-case-numbers-with-alarm/

As coronavirus cases surge in the U.S. South and West, health experts in countries with falling case numbers are watching with a growing sense of alarm and disbelief, with many wondering why virus-stricken U.S. states continue to reopen and why the advice of scientists is often ignored.

“It really does feel like the U.S. has given up,” said Siouxsie Wiles, an infectious-diseases specialist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand — a country that has confirmed only three new cases over the past three weeks and where citizens have now largely returned to their pre-coronavirus routines.

“I can’t imagine what it must be like having to go to work knowing it’s unsafe,” Wiles said of the U.S.-wide economic reopening. “It’s hard to see how this ends. There are just going to be more and more people infected, and more and more deaths. It’s heartbreaking.”

Lawman 2020-06-22 13:34:41 UTC #1464

I dunno, we shall see. I see the increase. But, I also see that the 7-day average of daily testing in the US has skyrocketed since May and is now more than DOUBLE (493,893) than early May (233,672). In early May, one out of every 8 tests generated a Covid case. Last week, it took 22 tests to get one case. Basically, at this point Covid is so rare relative to early May that you need to test almost 3 times the amount of people to find a case.

I don’t know what the future holds for FL, AZ, or the rest of the country the next few weeks. However, the 7-day average of Covid deaths in FL from April 10th through May 26 (5.5 weeks), was higher than what it was the last few days and it's still less then NY and, in Florida, it's still more then 50% below what it was in early May. If it jumps 50% from the current level, it will still be lower than May 8th. Hospitalization, on a nationwide basis, continues to decline with aggression.