Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[Austinfan]

I don't have a problem with Google, they're a monopolist, but like Gates, get absolution for their sins for the good deeds they do (Google Scholar, for example).

Zuckerberg, however, should be hung from a lamp post, he'd sell the Republic down the river for a few more buck in advertising revenue, I see him morphing into a Koch brother before our eyes.

[Austinfan]

Three academic studies released in the last week or so, using meta-analysis and different data sets, have a IFR that ranges from 0.75 to 1.0%.

I'm very skeptical of the CDC's sudden discovery of a IFR of 0.2 to 0.4%.

A couple months ago I estimated something on the order of 0.6%, and the range then seemed to be about 0.5-1.0%.
So things haven't changed that much.

What is ignored for the under 50 group is while they may have an IFR in the 0.1% range, hospitalizations are 10X that number, and long-term illness (months, not weeks) are probably 2-3 times hospitalizations (many infected are told to stay home unless they have a sudden collapse, but experience symptoms for months). So we may be talking 3-4% who will be seriously ill and may have reduced long-term mortality, as has been seen with West Nile Fever, for example.

[julio]

Zuckerberg, however, should be hung from a lamp post, he'd sell the Republic down the river for a few more buck in advertising revenue, I see him morphing into a Koch brother before our eyes.

Mark Zuckerberg created Facebook while in college - as a tool for mocking other students, and women in particular.

He is now what he was then - an amoral swine. Unfortunately, when you do something for sociopathic reasons, and it turns into a gold mine, the lesson learned is that sociopathic behavior pays off.

[el-pietro]

I think thats an interesting question. I don't have the numbers. The London School of Ecomonics says its 54% in England and Wales. I can't actually open the report itself though, its blocked de to lack of a safety certificate.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2020/e-May-20/Care-home-residents-account-for-over-half-of-excess-deaths-during-COVID-19-pandemic.

But just because they were in care homes doesn't mean they were close to death. Bkox is still posting here for example, surely has many years of life expectancy left.

‘This whole corridor is dead’: Europe’s coronavirus care home disaster

This article quotes a study by the University of Glasgow saying that the virus killed men in care homes an average of 13 years earlier than expected, and women 11.

[Austinfan]

The care homes, like the food processors, are anomalies that should serve as a warning.
80% of deaths are over 65, 80% of infections under 65.
The difference is younger patients die at a much smaller rate, but get sick at the same rate.

But the fact that the death rate under 65, and especially under 50, is closer to a bad flu ignores the chronic illness aspect, the flu is pretty much over in a week or two, COVID can linger for months and its long term effects may be life long.

[andyb]

One could argue that the lower fatality rate compared to our 100,000 deaths (likely 30%-50% higher and on a clear path to 200,000+) is evidence we did a pretty bad job of protecting the population. The initial estimates of potentially 2.2 million fatalities were too high because we did not understand enough about the disease. But if now our worst case scenario was 500,000-800,000 deaths if we did nothing and we are going to end up at 200,000 - then that is evidence we did this poorly.

Obviously protecting seniors is the key here, especially those in group homes where I imagine the ventilation systems are spreading it all over the place. But everyone who works in the vicinity of those seniors needs to be locked down. And everyone who encounters those workers or workers' families would need to be locked down too. This is where we failed and Sweden failed. If the population was going to have some freedom to move, this only works if we have bubbles around the chain of people who encounter senior citizens. That number is so numerous that only really effective social distancing would work. Like Germany did. We probably should have been able to cut the number of fatalities in half with leadership starting at the top, but minus all the partisan stuff too. Those liberate tweets probably killed people. Someone in that rally had a parent or grandparent in a senior center or knew someone who worked there.

We did successfully spread out the hospitalizations which was important. We did nowhere near enough to limit the spread though to vulnerable citizens.

[rpmcmurphy]

The CDC data analysis was screwed up. They conflated and combined the antigen and antibody testing, and the antibody testing has been flawed with false positives from the get-go.

So the CDC data would now seem to be underestimating the incidence.

Hard to believe that the CDC cannot even do basic biostatistics.

[andyb]

I was trying to give them the benefit of the doubt on their study though it did seem a little low with all the fatalities we are having with some effort at social distancing. The states have been conflating the COVID tests with the antibody tests and who knows whether the CDC got an accurate read of that. The 30%-50% estimate of additional uncounted fatalities is also likely true though we won't have a good estimate for a couple of years.

Politico went through some of the state data issues here:

Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening

[Austinfan]

The initial estimates of potentially 2.2 million fatalities was based on a no mitigation scenario where the entire population gets infected. This was not "wrong," 330M x 0.6% IFR is 2 million.

Of course, in the real world, even without government action, people would eventually self-isolate and slow the transmission of the virus, lockdowns just accelerated that process. If people adhere to masks and social distancing, that will slow the rebound, but without testing-tracing-isolation, new cases will gradually increase over time.

[andyb]

It was probably wrong because the fatality rate is certainly lower than 0.6%. More likely in the 0.3%-0.4% range. Also, it is unlikely 330M would get it in any situation. More like 225-250 million if it is like the flu. So 2.2 million fatalities was never going to happen even if that broad estimate was correct based on the data they had at the time.

All I am saying is that getting 200,000 deaths when the maximum possible might be 800,000 is not that impressive. That is the comparison we should be making now instead of to 2.2 million deaths.

[Austinfan]

As I posted above, the IFR is probably higher than 0.6%, I trust nothing out of the CDC these days since it's obvious the scientists are being muzzled. For example, how could the CDC combine infection testing with antibody testing if it wasn't a political decision? No epidemiologist would make such a decision. The watering down of the CDC recommendations for safe opening was also political.

The Imperial College estimate was never taken seriously except by the media and a few 'so-called experts."
Anyone with a modicum of statistical and modeling experience could see through it in five minutes.

However, even if herd immunity is say 60%, infections don't stop when you hit herd immunity, the growth of infection slows until it peters out, somewhere in the 70-80% range. So 200M x the IFR of your choice is a quick and dirty back of the envelope guess.

The inaccuracy of the antibody tests suggests the estimates of total infections have been inflated. How much? Who knows. Right now the NYC study is probably the best data set (b/c a high degree of infection reduces the impact of inaccuracy/false positives in antibody tests). That suggests a 10:1 infected:confirmed ratio, which will decline as testing increases (i.e. you capture more infected people so there are fewer infected per confirmed case).

[zambonir]

I wonder if MLB would actually allow its teams to do this. I'm guessing not - for safety, but also it would be an unfair economic and competitive advantage.

This could affect golf and auto racing I guess. Unaffiliated minor league baseball? They certainly aren't going to lack for interested players.

Texas sports fans will soon be allowed to attend outdoor pro games, Gov. Greg...

[andyb]

The "100 fans test positive" story could quickly kill a restart. I think MLB and other sports are not going to allow fans on a state by state basis. They will only do it for all games and they'll probably need a national green light for that. The whole Texas and Florida and Arizona competing to host games is probably a partisan minefield for any national state to navigate.

[zambonir]

I would agree. Would be different if they did the neutral site model that all the other leagues are heading towards.

I would still take a tournament, personally. I don't really believe they are going to be able to play 110-some games (between regular season and playoffs). An interrupted season after restart, or baseball in December would also not really work. And at what point does all this energy to save 2020 hurt 2021? It will hurt it a lot if there are multiple rebounds/outbreak, and if that happens, the push to have sports again will be part of the reason, even if there aren't fans in person.

It just seems like all of the plans are now based on best-case scenarios. We're gonna have baseball! If it goes well we're gonna have fans later in the season! Nick Pivetta can still be a #2 starter!

[andyb]

Nick Pivetta can still be a #2 starter!

When a bunch of players test positive he could be that number 2 starter by default!

Curious to see what leagues like the NHL would do if several players tested positive. I know they all have expanded rosters, but what does a team do if 5-10 players test positive but everyone else is negative. I think they give it 1 shot from the expanded roster and hope nobody else tests positive.

[zambonir]

That's what the NHL has been saying:

“Obviously we can’t be in a situation where we have an outbreak, and that will affect our ability to continue playing,” Daly said. “But a single positive test or isolated positive tests throughout a two-month tournament should not necessarily mean an end to the tournament.”

The N.H.L. Is Coming Back, Pending a Few (Dozen) Questions

I would think if 5 guys on a team get it, 5 guys on another team are gonna get it too. They're playing each other, and multiple teams are in the same arena and hotel (I assume it's better practice to have them all in one hotel than several).

[bkox]

Wisconsin reports record number of new coronavirus cases, deaths

[Austinfan]

Problem is deaths are a lagging indicator, generally 3 weeks behind infections, and around 2 weeks behind confirmed infections (i.e. incubation to symptoms to testing to hospitalization to death).

You'll have a better sense of the impact of states' reopening by the end of June.
For one thing, many cities have tighter controls than the rest of their state.
And people have short memories, in many places we may see people get careless in June.

My suspicion is the states with large republican majorities will have far more people violating social distancing and refusing to wear masks, and that will become apparent in the data. Especially as the nursing homes either burn through or become better policed, and the numbers reflect the general population.

[zambonir]

Some nice news from college sports for a change. This is actually a storied, if still relatively young, program. Some of their issues have more to do with conference realignment than the virus, so their future after next year is still uncertain.

Alabama Huntsville raises sufficient funds, school announces team will stay for...

[bkox]

Inside an Extraordinary G.O.P. Event: ‘Pressing Flesh and Kissing Babies’ Again

Speakers shared the same microphone. Local and state political candidates greeted voters with handshakes and squeezed tight for pictures. Of all the people gathered outside the county Republican office — many of them senior citizens — fewer than a dozen wore masks.

Dwayne “Duke” Buckner, who is challenging Mr. Graham in the Republican Senate primary next month and came to the event to meet voters, said he had recently stopped adhering to public health guidelines, which he described as overly burdensome.

“You can quote me on this,” Mr. Buckner said. “When the good Lord calls you home, a mask ain’t going to stop it.”