Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[rpmcmurphy]

CD, first of all, I resent that you accuse me of spreading lies. Nothing in my post warranted that ad hominem attack. I have only recently started posting here but I have been an avid reader of this site for many years, and that reply of yours really surprises me. I don't think it is typical of your usual tone.

The Stanford antibody test that you cite has been widely discredited, as have many other antibody tests. The Stanford test lacked specificity and had way too many false positives.

California currently has a total of 3,200 deaths. If that number were extrapolated to the nation at large, we would be looking at around 25,000 deaths right now instead of 92,000, with the probability of over 140,000 by August. Newsom's response certainly saved lives.

Although there is debate in the state about current opening issues, Gov. Newsome has approval ratings of 60-70% statewide.

What you are stating as fact is merely your opinion. And that, my friend, is no lie.

[California_Dreamin]

I never said you lied, I said it was a lie that his closing down when he did saved lives. There is no evidence of this and he in fact did not shut down much earlier than others, New York shut down 2 days later. Please do not take my comments personally, they were not made against you but the falsehood, which Newsom loves to promote, that he was so way ahead of the game. It is simply a lie. You haven't lied, he has.

And we are glad you have joined the community, welcome aboard.

[California_Dreamin]

By the way, his popularity is dropping daily, as this shutdown continues. People early on understood his reasoning. Now??? Not so much, especially when he has recently allowed so very bad criminals out of jail, kept the lockdown in place far longer than the numbers indicate he should, and his almost impossible goals that must be reached in order to end the lockdown. His relaxing of some of them yesterday was precisely because many of his most ardent supporters were even telling him they were unreasonable and rumors that he was recently seen in Montana visiting his wife's relatives didn't help either.

Look, reasonable people can disagree on how this is being handled, and I suspect you and I are on opposite ends of the spectrum, fair enough. But as someone who lives in California and and has a good pulse of the state and its feelings, I can assure you that his popularity drops 1-2 points every day that this silly lockdown continues. We are a state of 40 million and given that total, our numbers are almost microscopic and mostly confined to nursing homes and inner city LA. Most of the state has been doing just fine.

[andyb]

It is probably hard to figure out whether any specific action by a state has contributed to the outcome, but California has generally ranked fairly highly on most of the social distancing metrics. And as an international hub with lots of travel from China (and New York), it has fared better that many of the other highly dense states, especially those on the East Coast.

There was probably more solidarity in the state behind the social distancing leadership also than in some of the Midwestern states that are more evenly divided on a partisan basis. All these factors likely helped California (and possibly the warmer weather also).

While we cannot say whether California's lockdown (and leadership from the state enforcing and selling it) explicitly led to the low number of fatalities, we also cannot say that it did not. From the opposite coast it looks like they have done a pretty good job. Here in the Washington DC area we are still fighting a significant number of daily cases with similar government mandates. There is more overall density here and cooler weather until the last week or two, so that probably had much to do with it. In VA the cases outside of the DC area are very low. It seems like the state has done a pretty good job relative to others on the East Coast.

[rpmcmurphy]

Ok. I guess you accused me of repeating a lie unknowingly, rather than knowingly. I accept that your comment was not personal. We're good in that regard. However, I don't accept that what I repeated in fact was a lie.

We can agree to disagree, and it seems that on this issue we are on different sides of the fence. I look forward to the day we can discuss pitching rotations and lineups rather than this grim topic. You and I are from a similar generation and I relate to your historical references. My own happy childhood was forever scarred by 1964, and like many of us, I don't think I ever fully recovered!

[California_Dreamin]

rpmcmurphy...wow, another 1964 survivor like me! I too was scared in my childhood by that experience so in this area we are indeed kindred spirits! Welcome to the site.

[Philsmania]

By the way, his popularity is dropping daily, as this shutdown continues.

Not exactly. I am loathe to use the term "silent majority" because conservative white people have long misappropriated that term for themselves with decreasing reality but, in the case of how to deal with the pandemic, the real silent majority, per the polls, have been behind the actions if the Democratic governors. The reopen protesters are neither silent nor a majority. Unfortunately, the media has been very irresponsible in covering them, often painting them in a heroic light (civil disobedience with an AK-47?!) and giving the false impression that they are popular populist uprising which they are not. And, if course, white conservatives living in their bubbles think America is rallying around Trump and seething with rage toward the Democrats. They only associate with like minded people in their bubble. That's why so many of you are convinced that not only is Trump going to win this November but he is going to do do so by Reagan '84 levels. That simply is not going to happen.

[zambonir]

Californians broadly trust state government on coronavirus — but mistrust Trump,...

By 70% to 30%, the state’s voters say they’re more worried that shelter-in-place orders will end too soon, causing the illness to spread more, than they are that such orders will continue for too long and damage the economy.

Voters express considerable confidence in the state government, which, along with local officials, have imposed orders banning public gatherings and closing many businesses.

Newsom benefits from that, with 70% of California voters approving of how he’s doing his job, the poll finds.

The governor’s standing is up 10 points from the last time the Berkeley IGS poll asked about it, in September. The increase reflects significant upticks in the share of Republicans and self-described moderates who say they approve of the job the liberal Democratic governor is doing.

[California_Dreamin]

Please note the date of that poll...it was May 1 and things have changed considerably since then. Most Californian's thought Newsom's policies were reasonable then, but that was 3 weeks ago and his numbers have been dropping since then, the latest I saw were that he was now in the low 60's, high 50's, a considerable drop from the near 80% he once had.

Of particular relevance to us Californian's was todays announcement that the DOJ informed Newsom that he must allow churches to open up, a Constitutional freedom that Newsom felt very comfortable ignoring. It is particularly galling to many here that he allowed abortion clinics, pot stores and tatoo parlors to remain open while keeping small businesses and churches closed. People are now realizing the king has no clothes, he has turned this incredible state, blessed with almost every natural and physical resource under God's green earth into a 64 Billion [with a capital B] in the hole disaster. People are fleeing the state and Elon Musk was the latest to call him out.

Defend him if you wish, we who live here understand what he has done to our once glorious and prosperous state. And it is not pretty.

[bkox]

If Newsom had an r behind his name instead of a d, CD would be praising him like a short season a ball prospect who just hit .333

[andyb]

I find it hard to believe that opinion in California has changed that much in the last couple of weeks. The national numbers have not moved at all and there is no reason to think California is a conservative outlier. It is true that Republicans have been pressing to open everywhere since late April, but that has really only shifted opinions in the conservative base. The religious protests are from a small minority as the majority still sees gatherings as a public safety issue primarily (and there have been numerous churches that opened too early that have had a bunch of positive tests).

It is sad that some people have chosen to make public safety and health a partisan issue. The ridiculous protests in Wisconsin and Michigan and here in Virginia where armed protesters sought to intimidate the majority are pretty disgusting. It will be difficult to parse out the data, but we already have a longer curve than most European countries (with the exception of the UK which has had similar conservative protests). Our fatality rate is definitely higher because of these protests. Whether it will be 10% higher or 100% is something we really can't assess till it is over. We probably got lucky with much of the conservative South having warmer weather which impeded the spread of the virus compared to the northeast.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2020/05/19/two-churches-reclose-after-faith-leaders-congregants-get-coronavirus/

[California_Dreamin]

bkox...I love you death, my friend, and we go back to the days of Brett Myer's debut in Wrigley Field but your comment about me is silly and untrue. I couldn't care less what letter is behind his name, I care about the policies he espouses. Because they affect me, my family, people I care about and a state I love.

andyb...you doubt that the attitude around here hasn't changed a lot over the past 3 weeks? You cannot believe an opinion about one man can change so quickly? You obviously weren't around in 1964. On Sept 20, 1964, Gene Mauch was the most popular man in Philadelphia and could have been elected Mayor for Life of the City of Brotherly Love. Easily. Two weeks later, on Oct. 4, he couldn't have run for head of the sanitation department and got a vote. In a span of two weeks he went from genius to bumbling fool.

Newsom hasn't fallen that fast, but he's falling. And will continue to do so the longer the lockdown continues. It is ruining peoples lives.

[allentown]

I don't know about CA, although it seems to be among the most Democratic and progressive Democratic states in the nation, but national polls show only 19% of Americans believe governors are opening the country too slowly. People are still afraid of themselves or their loved ones dying of Covid. The deaths haven't stopped and, apart from New York, the number of new infections continue to incease. You are in the most conservative region of CA, so may be getting an unrealistic position. President Trump is pushing for rapid reopening and his approval numbers are trending downward currently -- I admit these are national numbers, but... recent articles that the fast-opening governors of both GA and FL have been caught trying to fudge the numbers, in order to make their re-opening decisions look better, while fast-opening TX now dealing with a new Covid hot spot in Amarillo. I think Newsome will be just find. I read poll results and political articles and commentary in a number of newspapers and have seen no indication that he's hurting.

[Philsmania]

I find it hard to believe that opinion in California has changed that much in the last couple of weeks. The national numbers have not moved at all and there is no reason to think California is a conservative outlier. It is true that Republicans have been pressing to open everywhere since late April, but that has really only shifted opinions in the conservative base. The religious protests are from a small minority as the majority still sees gatherings as a public safety issue primarily (and there have been numerous churches that opened too early that have had a bunch of positive tests).

It is sad that some people have chosen to make public safety and health a partisan issue. The ridiculous protests in Wisconsin and Michigan and here in Virginia where armed protesters sought to intimidate the majority are pretty disgusting. It will be difficult to parse out the data, but we already have a longer curve than most European countries (with the exception of the UK which has had similar conservative protests). Our fatality rate is definitely higher because of these protests. Whether it will be 10% higher or 100% is something we really can't assess till it is over. We probably got lucky with much of the conservative South having warmer weather which impeded the spread of the virus compared to the northeast.

Two churches reclose after faith leaders and congregants get coronavirus

To follow up on my reference to the "silent majority" earlier, for the better part of the last fifty years, white conservatives have appropriated that term for themselves and there may have been a time from 1968 to 1994 when it was at-least somewhat accurate. White conservatives are now the backbone of the the reopen protests. I would say that at this point, the roles have been reversed. Assuming the polls are accurate, the white conservative protesters are the loud minority with outsize attention (both on traditional media and social media) while the real silent majority concurs with the steps being taken by these Democratic governors.

[andyb]

I would say that at this point, the roles have been reversed. Assuming the polls are accurate, the white conservative protesters are the loud minority with outsize attention (both on traditional media and social media) while the real silent majority concurs with the steps being taken by these Democratic governors.

That is probably true. We have entered an era of manufactured outrace starting with the Tea Party protests that were largely seeded with corporate money. That can be effective electorally of course, as Democrats were not enthusiastic in 2010 because of the recession (and definitely not in 2014 where turnout was terrible on both sides).

I would say though that this is not just a phenomenon of the right. We saw a smaller version of the same thing in the Democratic primary with much more intensity on the Sanders side versus everybody else. That was enough to win a caucus or two, but the silent majority of mainstream Democrats took over by South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Public opinion is hard to measure (full disclosure this is part of what I do for a living). One can get very different results with different turnout scenarios. And it is very possible to right questions that show lots of people want the economy to open up as opposed to taking it slowly. Getting back to the current situation, the national picture has really not changed. The Republican governors like DeWine in Ohio who have taken the slow route are also extraordinarily popular. There is some portion of the population that is stir crazy, but no evidence yet that there is any sort of push back against Governors taking it slow. The special elections we have had in WI and CA have also not shown much of a trend other than being pretty similar to 2018 when you apply candidate and turnout variations to whatever election occurred.

[allentown]

Yes, it's really pretty simple, despite the remarks from the R Deputy Governor of TX and other benighted elected Rs eager to support their president, older Americans (in general) are not anxious to die so that their children and grandchildren can return to economic normalcy faster. Not a surprising or selfish view, since a lot of predictions say a quick opening and virus rebound will only slow a return to normalcy. Trump and the Rs have recently done great in the over-65 segment of the electorate, but such talk and general indifference to the health of the at-risk population, now has Trump losing in the over-65 segment of the electorate. People aren't stupid; even those with a deeply held commitment to your side are going to jump ship when you confront them with their own death and your lack of empathy for the risks they are faced with and your devaluation of the worth of their lives. In their lemming followership behind the orange pied-piper, Rs are repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot by gambling all that their re-election depends upon and will be effectuated by a fast enough economic rebound, and that the way to do that was to win individual news cycles from February through May. What matters is how things will look 4-5 months from now, not buoying today's Dow Jones Industrial Average.

[andyb]

The Swedish experience of fewer shutdowns is certainly interesting. They knew they would have a higher death rate than other similar countries (mainly the other Scandinavian countries) in the short term. We won't know about the long term until this is over of course. Other countries may be spreading their fatalities over a longer period of time and end up in a similar place.

The economic story is what is pertinent to our discussions about our own economy. It looks like Sweden will end up with an economic hit very similar to other European countries. In other words, keeping more things open did not help them much economically because nobody ventured out to restaurants. There are probably some education advantages they will accrue by keeping schools open.

The reticence of people to go out, however, will be our problem. Going to a restaurant even at reduced capacity could be a non-starter for many people for months and maybe even for the entire year. It seems pretty likely we will have a slow recovery rather than a V shaped recovery. The Swedish economic data is an indicator of that type of behavior.

Few signs Sweden's coronavirus strategy will save it any economic pain

[Philsmania]

Yes, it's really pretty simple, despite the remarks from the R Deputy Governor of TX and other benighted elected Rs eager to support their president, older Americans (in general) are not anxious to die so that their children and grandchildren can return to economic normalcy faster. Not a surprising or selfish view, since a lot of predictions say a quick opening and virus rebound will only slow a return to normalcy. Trump and the Rs have recently done great in the over-65 segment of the electorate, but such talk and general indifference to the health of the at-risk population, now has Trump losing in the over-65 segment of the electorate. People aren't stupid; even those with a deeply held commitment to your side are going to jump ship when you confront them with their own death and your lack of empathy for the risks they are faced with and your devaluation of the worth of their lives. In their lemming followership behind the orange pied-piper, Rs are repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot by gambling all that their re-election depends upon and will be effectuated by a fast enough economic rebound, and that the way to do that was to win individual news cycles from February through May. What matters is how things will look 4-5 months from now, not buoying today's Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Talk of "building herd immunity" is easy in the abstract when it is not yourself, your friends and family members doing the getting sick and dying.

Trump only thinks in terms of the now or the moment, not future consequences.

[Philsmania]

The Swedish experience of fewer shutdowns is certainly interesting. They knew they would have a higher death rate than other similar countries (mainly the other Scandinavian countries) in the short term. We won't know about the long term until this is over of course. Other countries may be spreading their fatalities over a longer period of time and end up in a similar place.

The economic story is what is pertinent to our discussions about our own economy. It looks like Sweden will end up with an economic hit very similar to other European countries. In other words, keeping more things open did not help them much economically because nobody ventured out to restaurants. There are probably some education advantages they will accrue by keeping schools open.

The reticence of people to go out, however, will be our problem. Going to a restaurant even at reduced capacity could be a non-starter for many people for months and maybe even for the entire year. It seems pretty likely we will have a slow recovery rather than a V shaped recovery. The Swedish economic data is an indicator of that type of behavior.

Few signs Sweden's coronavirus strategy will save it any economic pain

Ironic how Libertarians now hold up Sweden as some kind of paradise.

[zambonir]

I understand religion is important but "he kept the churches closed and the pot shops open!" is just an empty Fox News talking point. Never mind that pot is legitimately medicinal (and that "abortion clinics" are literally doctor's offices)- the issue is solely group size. While I personally wouldn't get a tattoo - or a haircut- at this point it's being treated just like any other business and is still likely safer than going to the gym. Tattoo parlors were not allowed be open during the full lockdown (or even Phase 1), that only just started to happen.