Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[bkox]

Actually realmuto and Betts bring up another interesting point. What will free agency look like this winter... especially if there is no guarantee that 2021 wont also be a shortened season? Betts was once thought to be getting Harper or Machado like money. How much will this depress future contracts?

[zambonir]

Yup. In all cases these players may or may not leave, but who knows. Does a lost season position the Dodgers better to lock up Betts, or worse? Will a $20 million player even be able to get that (let alone a multi-year deal) or wiil they all end up taking QOs (or signing with their old team after finding no better takers)? If spending is really going drop, there might not even be QOs - or would the whole pay structure get reformed on an ad hoc basis next year? With the CBA also coming up for renewal there won't be many long-term deals at all probably.

And yeah, we don't even know if the 2021 season would start on time. In the end all these sports besides football might find they are just a lot better off figuring out how to prepare for their next season. But I think the indoor winter sports are afraid they won't be able to actually do that, they'd rather get whatever fan-free 2020 playoff action they can now, lest they are shut down from November-February if there's another peak (to say nothing of flu season).

[andyb]

I suspect we will see lots of 1-year contracts in many sports as players might think the offseason before 2022 would offer better long term benefits. Realmuto is a catcher who clearly would have some incentives to not delay his long term deal. But I could see Mookie taking a lucrative 1-year deal ($30-$35 million) and trying his luck on a long term deal in a year.

[zambonir]

That's a mighty big number! I don't think we can expect there to be fully attended baseball in the first half of 2021, whether by design (i.e. it is still no fans or heavily distanced) or because ticket sales will be way down. If the owners aren't able to institute any changes (like revenue share or a lowered tax threshold) without the union signing off, I expect they will be pretty disciplined and unified on contracts, short or long. If the owners aren't completely full of it and they stand to lose as much as they claim (and that's just for a half-season, not a completely cancelled one), they won't be handing out $20 million deals, and I also gather the big-market teams might be hurt by this even more than the small ones (as all the benefits they accrue from being big-market are also things they can lose, whereas Tampa doesn't have that to lose in the first place).

Report: MLB eyes $640K loss per game sans fans

[California_Dreamin]

One more thing to consider. After all that has [and still is] happening in both New York and Los Angeles, the lure of playing in either of those cities for the next few years is certainly going to fade. I live in SoCal [Orange County, San Clemente] and I can tell you right now that I don't know one SoCaler who even wants to venture into LA, much less live there. I am sure the same is for New York City.

If you are a player with a family the odds are that smaller cities might look more appealing for the next few years if they have a choice. This will also affect the market. Let's put it this way...if I am Mookie Betts I am not sure I want anything to do with Los Angeles, Dodgers or no Dodgers.

[allentown]

Los Angeles and NYC are always going to be at increased risk from this and other pandemics, because they are major international gateway cities, domestic transportation hubs, and have very crowded poor neighborhoods. Some of those same problems also apply to Seattle (increased for Asian-initiated pandemics), Boston, and Miami (hub for air flights from Latin America, plus a major port for cruises), As huge domestic air hubs, Atlanta won't be far behind. If safety is the goal, the Twins, Brewers, Royals seem like good bets. Cardinals a good all-around target city, since despite commissioner's definition, they are a high revenue team.

[zambonir]

I live in SoCal [Orange County, San Clemente] and I can tell you right now that I don't know one SoCaler who even wants to venture into LA, much less live there.

So what's changed with the virus?

[BostonRoss]

Show that baseball doesn't need owners.

If that were true, the players would have taken over a long time ago.

What the owners have always provided is access to capital. There are certainly a number of rich players but would they be willing to shoulder nearly all of the financial burden and risk?

[tom81]

Count me out on a season the way they want to pursue it, I am with allentown and julio on this

Not me old friend. I’m wanting to see some form of baseball, I want to witness some real competition, something with an uncertain outcome. I respect all the players who don’t want to take the risk this year but really want to watch those that do. I thought the best, most entertaining baseball, in my lifetime was the steroid/amphetamine era. I’m somewhat callous to the potential outcomes to those who take the personal risks to achieve their goals.

[bkox]

Trump Says Back to Normal in Golf Means Big Crowds, No Masks

“After that, hopefully, it will be back,” Trump said in his interview with NBC host Mike Tirico. “We really want to see it back to normal so when we have all these thousands, tens of thousands of people going to your majors and going to golf tournaments, we want them to be having that same experience. We don’t want them having to wear masks and be doing what we’ve been doing for the last number of months. Because that’s not getting back to normal.

“We want to be back to normal where you have the big crowds, and they’re practically standing on top of each other and they’re enjoying themselves, not where they’re worried," he said. “But in the meantime, they do the social distancing, and they practice that. And they've been doing really well. The country is ready to start moving forward.”

[Lawman]

I would think we can all agree that is, indeed, the long term goal. When that occurs, however, remains to be seen.

[bkox]

I forgot to quote..hes talking july..

[Lawman]

Yeah....I think we can also all agree that July is a little ambitious and unrealistic. But, hey, it's good to set ambitious goals for your self so sure, why not?

[rpmcmurphy]

The virus doesn’t care about Trump’s ambitious goals. From today’s NYT:

“With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown”.

“The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks”.

So, by July it may be more likely that we see body bags stacked on top of each other in refrigerator trucks than people standing on top of one another at Trump’s precious golf tournaments.

[Lawman]

So, by July it may be more likely that we see body bags stacked on top of each other in refrigerator trucks than people standing on top of one another at Trump’s precious golf tournaments.

Yeah....I don't think so. Not to say that I think we should be having " big crowds, and they’re practically standing on top of each other" either. That's too extreme. But, I do think most areas can begin the slow, responsible, re-opening process. What "slow and responsible" actually means is self-defined by each state's governor apparently.

[rpmcmurphy]

I do think most areas can begin the slow, responsible, re-opening process. What "slow and responsible" actually means is self-defined by each state's governor apparently.

Yeah...I’m skeptical. Sure, most areas “can” begin to do this, but will they? Many governors in Trump states have not been very responsible, and we are seeing the inevitable consequences:

Texas Coronavirus Deaths Spike As Cities Lag State Drive To Reopen

The deaths from exposure to the virus takes about 4-6 weeks to show up, So it is possible that we will see continuing spikes in Covid-19 deaths throughout the coming months. I think opening up can be done responsibly, but many Trump sycophants will refuse to be responsible.

[Lawman]

I think opening up can be done responsibly

That's always been my mantra - slowly and responsibly. But, I also think most places could have done so far sooner then they did/are doing.

[rpmcmurphy]

I also think most places could have done so far sooner then they did/are doing.

Really? Then you must feel that Trump’s own task force guidelines were too restrictive:

Opening Up America Again | The White House

Most of the reopening states, including Texas, have not followed this advice, and they will pay the price.

[Lawman]

Yes. To a certain extent.

I think we could have mandated masks and gloves, opened up some small retail retail, construction, gatherings in groups of 30, and school for younger kids sooner. I'm not talking whole country or whole states, I'm talking regional.

[zambonir]

The argument against opening too soon has been the same all along - that it will lead to more death, and even worse economic ruin once those deaths begin and we have to lock down again. The consequences for being wrong about staying locked down are not as great as the consequences for being wrong about opening too soon.

I've seen a lot of people say they won't go to sporting events or shows until there is a vaccine. That could be a very long time. But right now there's no real indication that any place is actually ready with the procedures and infrastructures that are needed to be open, not to mention people are refusing to follow what procedures there are. f you don't have either of those things, there's no "responsibly."

I don't know that you can make this direct comparison, but a second spike is certainly gonna come.