Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[Lawman]

So you would need a private/public partnership, where the private company makes the vaccine and the government covers the cost to the public company (to keep costs to the consumer down) and legal indemnifications.

[allentown]

This has been addressed in the past by the government granting legal immunity to the vaccine producer.

The government actually did set up 4 such 'government' manufacturing facilities. One is at University of Texas, I think two others are operated by government contractors, don't know about #4. There was an article about these in the last week. They aren't ready to be of much help. It is hard to maintain a slumbering research/biomanufacturing capability. In the pharmaceutical industry, the people are constantly researchingmanufacturing, not sitting by as a resource for a national emergency. It takes a constant stream of government contracts to keep the government centers ready to go and that apparently hasn't happened.

[bkeich]

So you would need a private/public partnership, where the private company makes the vaccine and the government covers the cost to the public company (to keep costs to the consumer down) and legal indemnifications.

Interesting concept. But couldnt someone with side effects still sue the manufacturer. Not really sure.

I am not saying that we shouldnt pursue a vaccine because of the fear of lawsuits, obviously that is ridiculous, but sadly I fear (although Julio and you have good points) that even if a company has a possible vaccine, even one that they believe is safe, they may, for business reasons, delay until an ridiculous amount of due-diligence is done. They will try to study it with every other treatment they can think of, and that takes time. In the mean time we are suffering.

Julio's idea is interesting, but not really easy to implement in my opinion. Does the US Government want to get in the business of manufacturing? We dont really make our own weapons, our own money, our own defense materials, it is not something we do. In this case maybe the urgency will require it, but to build and commission a Pharmaceutical Plant is not trivial, by any means. Most take years, some even decades, to get operational.

Doing the research to find a vaccine is proceeding, and I assume every research company in that area are going spheres-to-the-wall because imagine the positive press and stock implications of announcing you have found the vaccine... You would make Tesla's overpriced stock look like it was well, you get my point.

[bkox]

Looks like this is a good reason for closing schools

Coronavirus looks different in kids than in adults

The data suggests they may have more symptoms that make them contagious, like runny nose, and that they may have more gastrointestinal symptoms which raises concerns for the virus being in the feces for several weeks after infection

Prolonged shedding in nasal secretions and stool has substantial implications for community spread in day-care centers, schools, and in the home,” Cruz, a pediatrician from the Baylor College of Medicine, and Zeichner, an immunologist from the University of Virginia, wrote.

[julio]

My fear that a government run manufacturing facility would take 500 years to produce anything. Anyone who has every worked with the Federal Government will attest that my estimate is, if anything, low.

For routine things, yes.

On the other hand, we have the Manhattan Project. We have the example of the Lockheed Skunk Works. It all depends on how urgent the task is, and how much we (e.g.,, "the government") are willing to suspend SOP - things like public bidding, lowest-cost contractor, etc.

This requires real leadership. Leadership that : 1) understands the problem, and what needs to be done to solve the problem; and 2) has no vested interests other than solving the problem. In other words... we're screwed.

[mdougherty12]

This has been addressed in the past by the government granting legal immunity to the vaccine producer.

The government actually did set up 4 such 'government' manufacturing facilities. One is at University of Texas, I think two others are operated by government contractors, don't know about #4. There was an article about these in the last week. They aren't ready to be of much help. It is hard to maintain a slumbering research/biomanufacturing capability. In the pharmaceutical industry, the people are constantly researchingmanufacturing, not sitting by as a resource for a national emergency. It takes a constant stream of government contracts to keep the government centers ready to go and that apparently hasn't happened.

I believe this is the article you're referring to:

Federal vaccine development sites ill-suited to counter covid-19 epidemic

[schillingfan]

And that is where it originated, so I see nothing wrong w/ that.

And that’s the problem. If you prefer propaganda, that’s your choice to spread it.

[LoneStarPhan]

Another sports related consequence.

[bkox]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Read that whole thread.. its terrifying.

[Lawman]

Ok, I'm scared.

[Lawman]

Propaganda: information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.

Calling the coronavirus the "Wuhan Virus" based on the fact that it originated in that location is not propaganda in and of itself although.

[rpmcmurphy]

I read the entire report earlier this afternoon. It is terrifying. I suspect that this report is what is behind the sudden increase in recommended measures put forth by the administration in the past several days. I think that we are in for a much longer siege than what most of us felt was possible even a few days ago. They may be trying to break it to us as gently as possible by starting with a “two week then re-evaluate” scenario. That is how the initial wave of school and nonessential business closures are being framed, but how does it not become much more than that?

[Jeff05]

Calling the coronavirus the "Wuhan Virus" based on the fact that it originated in that location is not propaganda in and of itself although.

Regardless, calling it the "Chinese virus" tends to leave Chinese folk (or anyone of East Asian appearance) open to racist abuse. It's already occurred in Australia. I suspect the same will happen in the US.

[bkox]

A White House official called it the Kung Flu today

[Jeff05]

@@$%& idiots! The lack of maturity among our so-called leaders is astonishing!

White House official referred to coronavirus as 'kung-flu', says reporter

[phillychuck]

We need to get past the "Chinese Virus" or Wuhan Virus" being anything unusual in terms of referring to viruses. Spanish Flu, Japanese Encephalitis, German Measles, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Hantavirus, Yellow Fever, Ebola, West Nile Virus, Zika Virus, MERS, and many more are named after places they originated. Even Lyme disease is named for Lyme, CT. Heck, Legionnaire's Disease was named after a specific group of people who were its victims.

"Kung Flu", however, is clearly beyond the pale. It's not even a flu.

[LoneStarPhan]

While Wuhan Virus would be perfectly acceptable and appropriate for the common name for this virus, is seems COVID-19 has already become the common name. I think it is best to continue that as the common name for the virus.

After reading the report from the UK, the picture sure looks dim. It suggests we should anticipate deaths from COVID-19 to continue to rise rapidly after April and peak in June. Then deaths would taper off and become nominal by August, but a second round of this virus would follow next flu season (after October 2020) unless an effective vaccination is available by then. Of course, we don't really know how effective our programs to suppress the virus effects will be or how long we can tolerate the measures now being taken. It is also possible that the virus may take some unexpected turn in behavior that would change the outcomes, maybe for the better but possible for the worse.

So it seems to me that this 2020 baseball season may be lost in any meaningful way. If teams cannot return to training say until August, is it worth calling it a season. The NFL will also be impacted if this virus is peaking in June and running strong until August. Do we give up on closing everything and cancelling all gatherings of more than a few people? Surely our economy would be in shambles and a major, long term depression would be in progress it this were to happen.

I try to be optimistic and hope that things shake out quickly and things never come to such a long term and serious result. But I don't think we can count on that happening.

[Jeff05]

PC, my concern is that although we "need to get past" the labelling of COVID-19, many people will not. If governments want to lay a foundation for reasonableness in the wider community, then it would be prudent of our leaders to refer to COVID-19 in their public statements. This is not about the vast number of sane, rational people in our society, rather it's about the psychotic, irrational (and ARMED) minority who may be provoked into action if/when the death toll begins to rise.

[phillychuck]

I may be overly optimistic, but I don't think any sane people are going to run around shooting other Americans (regardless of ethnicity) because we call something the Wuhan Virus. And I don't really think there is any way to predict or control the behavior of psychotic people. They might just as likely shoot people because we didn't call it the Wuhan Virus.

COVID-19 is fairly standard for this one now, and most will probably solely rely on that as we move forward, but I'd rather hear Wuhan Virus than "Coronavirus" (which is the more widely used common name--just google it) because there are many coronaviruses, and the next time a mild one shows up we'll see a panic because of the name confusion.

I just wanted to point out it's not racist to name a virus after its point of origin, it is standard practice.

[phillychuck]

Hopeful observations:

Once the virus died out in Wuhan, it did not spread widely in China, and doesn't seem to be re-initiating as the Chinese go back to work. Scientists seem pretty puzzled by this, but it's an optimistic development when we look at our future path. There is some research on whether a second strain developing has affected the reduced spread. There's no agreement on this right now.

South Korea seems to have quickly limited their infection rate with a lack of acceleration of new cases.

A study by Chinese scientists just came out that quantified the response of the contagion of this virus to temperature and humidity. It seems to be a fairly standard corona virus that loses its virulence in the heat and humidity. They produced their estimates based on a fairly small sample, and those estimates would stop the virus by the end of June. They believe their numbers are on the conservative side due to testing limitations and comparison with other coronaviruses. The slower spread in some warm, humid countries seems to support this.

In Germany, where there is and has been very widely available testing, they have over 6000 positive-testing cases and only 13 deaths, a case-fatality rate of around 0.25%, which is extremely encouraging. There seem to be no agreed-upon explanations for this.

There are a boatload of drugs and vaccines in development, and the private sector has really come through quickly on testing once the CDC and FDA got out of the way. If we can really fast track those we may be able to avoid a second cycle of infection (2nd cycle was worse with the "Spanish" flu in 1918). (Links to drugs and testing below)

Coronavirus outbreak: Top coronavirus drugs and vaccines in development

COVID-19 test development surges with pandemic - MassDevice

(God Bless Thermo-Fisher!)

On the other hand, American people are not doing a good job (broadly) of socially distancing, and we seem to expect distancing to "fix" the problem immediately, when distancing will actually take about a full contagion cycle to be effective at all, at least 14 days. In the meantime the case rate will go up, and people will become skeptical of the effectiveness of distancing.