Clearwater update 2019

tom81 2019-03-08 22:58:24 UTC #101

I disagree julio, they are correlated but they are not the same thing. If you check out the leaderboards of high Pit/Pa, Cesar was 10th in baseball last year while he was 39th in OBA. And the other guys in the top Pit/Pa list are all power threats that get pitched to very carefully. Also compare Cesar’s 2018 numbers to his previous two seasons. Kapler preached the importance of the guys in the top of the order seeing a lot of pitches. Cesar saw a big uptick in Pit/Pa with a decent drop in OBP last year.
Pit/pa .388/.402/.427
OBP .371/.373/.356

zambonir 2019-03-09 00:26:14 UTC #102

Cesar's OBP was .378 in the first half (his normal performance) and .324 in the second half (when injured). Given how high it was seems like his Pit/PA probably didn't drop even when his production did (but you'd have to check).

tom81 2019-03-09 02:55:22 UTC #103

This is an interesting question. I don’t know where you would find the data but I bet the team knows.

zambonir 2019-03-09 03:09:04 UTC #104

Most of his problems were with hitting. BA dropped 40-some points, BABIP dropped 50 points, SLG dropped 50 points. Walk rate dropped some but not a ton.

He's just a very solid major league regular (who no one ever expected to be this good). Not sure Kingery will actually be much better but obviously he's younger and has the tools to suggest more potential.

Les229 2019-03-09 03:19:24 UTC #105

I have never questioned Hernandez offensive capabilities, but I think of a team's capabilities in terms of winning the World Series. If they get into the playoffs, he will cost them when it counts the most. It will be best to replace him now, rather than after he costs the team in the post season.

Les229 2019-03-09 03:22:08 UTC #106

I usually think only in terms of how to help the team, but I feel Kingery is not getting a fair shake.

Les229 2019-03-09 03:27:20 UTC #107

Why not let him compete for second base? Keep the best one and trade the other one. The way Kapler is handling this, we will never really know.

tom81 2019-03-09 03:45:36 UTC #108

Because Hernandez is a 3 WAR second baseman and Kingery is not? Kingery is also not a 4 WAR SS like Segura so he won’t compete there either. Franco however had been about a .5 WAR 3B so the bar is much lower for Kingery to be an improvement there. As I’ve said before this board really under appreciates Hernandez and I suspect it’s because he isn’t Chase Utley. Kingery just isn’t an upgrade over Hernandez now, so with the team in win now mode it doesn’t make sense to start him at 2B now.

zambonir 2019-03-09 09:10:26 UTC #109

Kapler's the only reason Kingery even got to be in the majors. He got more than a fair shake last spring training, Kapler loved him, he encouraged Klentak to give him the deal and get him on the 25. If it had all gone differently - i.e. he'd played decently and they didn't run out of shortstops - maybe things would be different and they would have traded Hernandez. If the team hadn't signed all these guys to try and win this year, if they were only hoping to maybe get the wild card, you could break in Kingery (and Alfaro would still be here). I don't worry about Hernandez costing the team with a bad defensive play in the World Series (especiallly not the 2019 World Series) any more than I do Hoskins or Realmuto or Harper (I would definitely worry about Franco). Over the last three seasons Cesar actually ranks as one of the Top 3 defensive 2Bs in the league (fangraphs UZR and overall). We hope Kingery will ultimatley be better than him but even defensively that's not a sure thing (just as Crawford should ultimately be better than Galvis but was not yet).

If Kingery can hit .400 in spring training maybe he'll put himself into a conversation again but right now he is no more deserving of Hernandez's job than Cozens' is of McCutchen's. The real question to me is still whether he's best-suited to be a super sub or if he should be in AAA preparing to replace Cesar down the line.

Taudawg 2019-03-09 11:51:52 UTC #110

There's also the 2b market. How many contending teams need a 2b and/or see Hernandez as upgrade? He only has two years of control left and turns 29 in May. Maybe you get a low minors lottery ticket type for Cesar, but I think the upside of keeping him is a better investment.

julio 2019-03-09 14:57:31 UTC #111

I'll put my two cents in here - Kingery should be in AAA. He simply doesn't have the arm to be a regular on the left side of the infield, so his career path is either second base or bench player. Given that, it would be stupid to decide he's "bench player" and not give him the opportunity to mature as a starting second baseman. That would be just throwing away a potential resource. To continue to develop, he needs reps at second base, and regular plate appearances at the first level he has not yet dominated - and that's AAA.

Backup utility infielders are readily available; no rational organization would trade a starting second base prospect to acquire one.

Pushing Kingery to the 25-man roster last year, and throwing him into the lineup, usually out of position, was stupid - it didn't help the club, and it certainly didn't help Kingery. it was a classic case of, "We have a round hole, and a square peg; get the hammer." - deciding what Kingery "should be" based on the club's perceived need, rather than an objective evaluation of his actual strengths and weaknesses.

I can't advocate trading Hernandez to "make room" for Kingery... because Kingery has not demonstrated that he's ready to start in the majors. He needs to go to Lehigh Valley, play second base pretty much exclusively, and dominate there. If/when that happens, we can discuss who should be the second baseman going forward.

phillychuck 2019-03-09 15:07:12 UTC #112

I basically agree with Julio, but I'd add that I think Kingery could play CF in the big leagues, too. He's fast enough and has lots of amateur experience in the OF. I'd send him to LV and alternate him between 2B and CF. And try to teach him that it's really hard to hit pitches in the dirt and a foot outside.

Philsmania 2019-03-09 16:45:25 UTC #113

As I have said before, I think Kapler would have to dragged kicking and screaming to an Opening Day roster that doesn't have Kingery on it.

julio 2019-03-09 17:14:21 UTC #114

Quite possibly true. But that's part of Klentak's job. Judgment about whether a prospect is major-league ready, or needs further development, is the responsibility of the GM, as advised by his development staff. For the most part, the major-league field manager should be outside that discussion - because except for a few weeks in the spring, in conditions that are simply not equivalent to "real games in season," the field manager doesn't have real exposure to prospects' performance.

andyb 2019-03-09 17:20:35 UTC #115

I send Kingery to AAA potentially to get more at bats and mainly play 2B. It would be nice as a utility player to get a few reps in CF, but really he is our 3rd or 4th best option there. Herrera and Quinn are better both defensively and offensively. Kingery might get in the same range defensively though his arm would always be an issue. And he is simply not as good offensively and frankly the Phillies might be better with Williams and Harper in CF sacrificing some defense.

It is not the worst thing in the world if Kingery is the utility infielder. It won't maximize his potential but it also might be the best option for the major league team. Sometimes the team is more important than individual development and Kingery may end up just being a good utility player.

julio 2019-03-09 17:46:15 UTC #116

If they bury him on the bench for another season, it's likely that Kingery will end up being a utility player - whether "good" or not is an open question. Unless he improves his offensive game, he's not going to be a valuable pinch-hitter; defensively, it's not clear he's an improvement over others on the roster at any position except possibly second base (and yes, that includes Franco at 3B, who at least has a strong arm).

The thing is, I'm a Scott Kingery fan. I want him to do well; he's a good story, a kid who has outperformed expectations (prior to 2018) based on his drive. But deciding that he could be Ben Zobrist, and pushing him beyond his level of development in 2018, hasn't helped him or the club. Maybe he's capable of that "super-sub" role - but the jury's out on that, and if he's the backup infielder in 2019, he's not likely to get enough reps to grow into that role.

Frankly, if Kingery's value to the club is only as a backup infielder, not as a prospective starter, the Phillies might well get more value by trading him to a club that has a second-base need, and replacing him on the roster - short term - with a utility infielder who has less market value, but who might well provide as much offense/defense off the bench in 2019 as Kingery.

zambonir 2019-03-09 19:11:13 UTC #117

It's hard to know who plays a bigger role in keeping Kingery in the majors and in the utility role, Kapler (because he loves him so much) or Klentak (because of the major league contract). Personally I think they make all decisions together but it's mostly Klentak (and the rest of the front office. Analytics make the line-up - such as, our numbers say Kingery is the best shortstop - not the manager by himself. And certainly it is the GM who makes the 25, and truly decides whether a starting line-up position is "open").

I wonder of Joe Jordan had any involvement at all in the Kingery contract as far as the decision to keep him in the majors. Maybe that was one of the many points of disagreement.

But yes the way the team is now constituted there aren't enough ABs for a "super-sub." Last year was different but the injuries changed that. If they were truly committed to the mix-and-match thing Cesar himself wouldn't have had just one position (but his arm is apparently weaker than Kingery's despite originally being a SS himself).

I certainly don't think the Phillies intend to keep Cesar as a free agent. Next off-season or next deadline he's probably gone.

andyb 2019-03-09 19:18:58 UTC #118

That is not what I was suggesting though. I was more saying the emphasize the "infielder" part of utility infielder. Forget OF because he is not needed there. I don't disagree that regular playing time at 2B would probably be a bit better for his development, but I also think he helps the major league club now compared to the other utility infielders.

If they keep him I think he gets 300 AB in a utility role. 15 starts at 2B, 10 at SS, 20 at 3B plus injury replacements and pinch hitting and double switches. He will still develop offensively in that type of role. If they ever want him to be the starting 2B then can always send him to the Dominican for a few weeks next Winter. The big club winning though is the priority and now he adds to that.

zambonir 2019-03-10 00:24:34 UTC #119

He adds to the big club if he progresses. If he's the exact same guy as last year he's not necessarily better than a Trevor Plouffe or Sean Rodriguez or Wilson Valdez type (or Walding). I think he will progress though. He has a much better idea of what to expect and what to be prepared for this year, he's supposedly in better shape, and he'll also be hitting amidst a much-improved line-up.

And for the times when Quinn is on the DL he could still be useful as an OF late in games (after he PHs or PRs or there's a double-switch need). Though Williams is still here of course and if it's a five-man bench Altherr might be too.

Les229 2019-03-10 02:23:00 UTC #120

SATURDAY MARCH 3, 2019

Bryce Harper day! A great day for it. The temperature got up to 81 and it was sunny all day. The crowd looked like a full house. It turns out that the attendance was 10,286, the biggest crowd so far this year. It is not the biggest crowd the Phils have ever drawn in this stadium, but more than most spring training games. A couple of times the Phils have exceeded 11,000. They say the stadium seats 7,500 so the Phils had the ole shoe horn working today. It would be nice to see the Phils start to sell out again like they did when they were winning. Maybe the fans would have to stage another “Occupy Nationals Stadium”. That would really aggravate the Nationals fans, what with Bryce Harper and all.

I think that an interesting thing happened in the first inning that could portend events in the future. The pitcher, Shoemaker, walked Bryce Harper and Hoskins promptly jacked the ball out of the park. With all the hoopla that the Harper signing has brought, maybe the other team will forget Hoskins. If they put Harper on, that automatically makes Hoskins getting better pitches to hit. What the world seems to have forgotten is that Harper and Hoskins had nearly the same hitting stats last year. Having a right handed and left handed one back to back in the lineup can’t be fun for the opposing pitcher. By the way, it looked to me like the Hoskins blast cleared the Frenchy’s sign on top of the tiki bar. Our lackadaisical announcing crew couldn’t seem to make up their minds if it did, or didn’t. A bit of personal nostalgia, the first home run that I saw hit in that stadium was in a Phils’ intrasquad game. Pat Burrell hit one over that sign.

Speaking of our crack TV crew, they sent me into a rage when they left the game to go interview Bryan Dawkins. While they did that, they didn’t bother to announce hitters. There were two hits during that interview that I still don’t know who hit them. What? Tommy Mack step out for a short snort?

I don’t think Arrieta looked sharp today. He looked a little wilder to me than usual. I’d say he is a little behind schedule at this point in spring training. Dominguez got off to a rough start but settled in. Neris looked really sharp, but Ramos continues to struggle.

Two outfielders who are having a good spring are Lane Adams and Dylan Cozens. They each had a homer today. For the spring so far, they are each hitting .333. I only remember Adams briefly with the Braves, but he is interesting in that he has some speed and a good arm. Of course Cozens has been everybody’s coming Babe Ruth for some time now, but this is his third homer of the spring. Another guy who is hitting over his reputation is Mitch Walding. It would be nice to have a little competition at third base.

The next home game is Monday against the Rays. That is always a big crowd. You may see as much blue as red in the stadium for that game. The Rays have moved so far down the coast(Port Charlotte) that the local Rays fans count this as a home game.