2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[fish]

don't think he's wrong, saying multiple GMs think "there's a chance" Nick could be traded isn't exactly a bold statement.

I also suspect he uses the term “GM” for for those that held the job in the past and present like people still call former Presidents “President”, and that most of his discussions are with Jim Duquette and the ghost of Jack McKeon.

[zambonir]

Maybe Andy MacPhail has the scoop.

The story does say it is more than 40 "executives" but I do think all of them are currently employed by a team. He says they all were granted anonymity and were asked not to discuss their own players.

Also Nick is 14 of 14 on this list, of the position players. Probably half the people in this column are going to be traded, but half aren't.

[VoteForKalas]

It would be a great move by DD and one that would help the team start to remake the roster. Going from good to great is the hardest climb toward a championship. Better get it done before it is too late.

[andyb]

But moving Nick would likely NOT make the team better in the long term. Think of him as an NBA contract where we would either have to buy out the whole thing or include draft picks to deal him.

If we bring in Kyle Tucker we need to clear the spot of course, but all we are really doing is spending an extra $27 million to get Tucker in addition to the prospects required to get him if we move Nick simultaneously (and Tucker is more an offseason item as well).

The reason all the talk in the offseason was about trading players like Bohm is that he is the type of player that might get us something in return as we remake the team on the field.

[EDmuch]

So trading the one RH bat we have with double digit HR for Tucker who is anohthr LH bat makes us better?

[andyb]

So trading the one RH bat we have with double digit HR for Tucker who is anohthr LH bat makes us better?

In a world where Schwarber leaves we might want another LH bat. And trading Nick by itself does not make us better so I would not want to do it UNLESS we were going to make him a bench piece because of other trades we make.

Trading Bohm for a closer and playing Otto Kemp at 3B might make us better if one is thinking out of the box.

[zambonir]

Oh I agree it is easier said than done to subtract Nick's bat and add a big enough replacement. But, for instance putting Harper and Schwarber in LF, moving Kepler to RF and trading for O'Hearn feels like a better team. Just not likely that entire chain of events can come to pass.

Not thinking of Tucker or anyone else next year at all, just this year. But if they've unloaded 50% of Nick's contract obviously they are better prepared to get a new OF next year, with more options than there are at this deadline.

Trading Bohm in the off-season is obviously on the table to but he probably doesn't get you a controllable closer this deadline, or even a rental closer (because why would a team white-flagging its season want him. Of course you could involve a third team).

Far easier to just replace Kepler in LF (except it's not) or get that platoon partner. I'll be pretty surprised if there are dramatic deals or big money taken on this deadline. But the good news is for the second year in a row they don't need starting pitching.

[VoteForKalas]

That is why I said "start to remake the roster". Unloading Casty is only one step to making us a better team.

The longer we delay, however, the harder it gets to make that move matter and the more our current winning window closes.

We are likely stuck again with the team DD built this season, but this offseason he and the Phillies need to admit failure and begin the process to remake the roster and extend the window with a better mix of talent around core guys like Harper, Wheeler etc al. They need to get better return on their financial investments or go all in and match the Dodgers & Mets.

[andyb]

But if we unload Casty that act probably makes us worse, not better. Spending $20 million to get some team's 20th best prospect really does not make us better if we can use the $20 million on other things now.

[EDmuch]

There is not yet any "failure" to admit. This team is built on an incredible starting rotation that is so good that it just might be good enough to win the whole thing. You certainly do not give up and start a rebuild with a $300 million dollar roster that is currently in first place. After the season, we shall see what happens. But talking about dumping Casty who is hitting .280 with double digit home runs at the trade deadline is lunacy.

[andyb]

I think we will get a back of the bullpen arm, though remember if the playoffs started today (and Nola was back) we might go Wheeler, Suarez, Sanchez, Nola with both Luzardo and Painter in the bullpen (Painter for multiple innings once or twice). Luzardo's first postseason experience was as a 3-inning reliever and Painter could do the same (with Luzardo doing an Alvarado impression potentially).

[zambonir]

Agree. For all the little flaws on the team, Dombrowski has built a team good enough to win a championship every year, as well our best team and first division winner in years last season. His decision to trade for an affordable high-end starting pitcher instead of using similar resources on a better OF than Luzardo has proven to be correct, since none of those available OFs wound up being good (TBD on Profar but imagine how unhappy we'd have been about that). It seems a starting pitcher was what he wanted all along, given he tried to trade for Crochet last July and also wanted pitching for Bohm. And as uninspired as Romano has been the overall bullpen plan was working fine until Alvarado's suspension. There's no doubt they will get a reliever, but given all the starters available, probably don't need two.

Nonetheless, it would be fun if he surprised everyone with a big move for a bat.

As for Nick, it's not ideal that he's our fourth-best hitter and a terrible OF to boot, but you still gotta live with it unless there's a clear upgrade. Next year could be different. I think you could trade him for something (or at 50%) and it would still be wise to do so rather than assume he can be a 110 OPS+ player yet another year. It may also be worth it to just dump him if there's a clear plan for the spot. I'd also gladly get a better LF now and make him sit against RHP for Kepler occasionally. Yes, he has double-digit HRs, but only just. It's probably the most notable thing about his decline given he had almost 30 in 2023, and 34 the year before the Phillies paid him this money

[zambonir]

Of course you have to assume Nola gets every chance to be in the playoff rotation, and also seems ill-suited for the pen, but it's a lot to assume right now based on the combination of his performance this season and the two injuries.

[andyb]

Nola as the 4th starter gets plenty of rest which we know he likes. Not assuming he'll be back for the postseason, but Luzardo rather than Suarez as the high leverage lefty in the playoffs makes a ton of sense. We'll need all the starters before the playoffs and then we'll lose Alvarado as they begin (and hopefully have the nice problem of too many starters).

[BostonRoss]

Jack McKeon is still alive!

[allentown]

I’d trade anyone after Painter for high quality arms with multiple years of control

But why? We can extend Ranger for just money. We need cheap, young position players, because our line-up, as a whole, is old, expensive, and declining. Guys, like Stott and Rojas, are young and cheap, but declining. Trading from our dearth of position prospects leaves us spending $10 mill on journeymen or committing $120 million to a very average starter signed as a FA, or way too long contracts for actual stars.

[zambonir]

I think Fish meant a closer, like Bautista or Duran. A present-day Brad Lidge (though he was only a one-year guy at the time of the trade). Or Ken Giles for that matter.

Certainly in a vacuum you don't want to trade a future major league regular for a guy who only pitches 60 innings a year, but probably only one out of any four or five prospects you might deal will actually turn into that. Ken Giles didn't work out so great for the Astros but neither did the great package we got for him.

The bullpen is the one obvious, addressable weakness of both this team and next year's team. If it's someone you still have in 2027 even better.

[fish]

I think Fish meant a closer, like Bautista or Duran.

Right. A stacked rotation gets you to the playoffs. A stacked bullpen helps you win the playoffs. They can’t afford to monkey around with half-measures any more.

[allentown]

I thought he probably meant that, but I think DD plans to get through the playoffs with 4 SPs in the pen. I think the team digs a deep hole for future years if they trade hitting prospects. This team's Achilles heel in the playoffs is that the offense can almost be counted upon to have a post-season series of the abysmal offense we just saw in the Astros series.

[VoteForKalas]

No one is talking about a rebuild, more a retool to better allocate payroll and roster spots toward an improved mix of players who can better maximize our chances of winning a championship.

The roster has been given multiple chances to win the ring and fallen short, mostly due to an inconsistent offense and bullpen.

We will see what happens this season, but how many feel confident they will finally achieve the goal? If we fall short again, significant changes need to be made. That should include moving Casty and using that money in a better way.

Casty is a poor investment based on what he is being paid and what he is delivering. Just like Turner, Walker and the other mistakes DD has made in building this roster over multiple years.

As we saw in 2010 & 2011, starting pitching is important, but without an offense and bullpen that can carry its weight, the team will not win what we all want. We are here again and this time DD has a chance to retool and extend the window, but that time is running out. This season should be the last run it back episode; change is needed or we will fall behind again.