2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[phillychuck]

McGarry's early season effectiveness is encouraging, for sure, but he certainly won't be starting.

Mercado has a very low WHIP now, but it is a result of an unsustainably low BABIP.

Allard has been awful in pretty much every respect, WHIP over 2.

Castillo is at least striking batters out.

Strahm is indeed probably the short-term injury option, but that weakens the pen, which is, of course, an easier hole to plug, but maybe not with a lefty.

[Callison]

The games when the Phils hit a little are a lot more fun. Feel good days for Casty and Rojas, two former holes in the lineup. Had to watch opponents' broadcast lately and the announcers said the Phils are loaded and can be dominant when they start to hit.

I guess Pinto has already pitched the only strong ML innings he'll ever pitch. I think it was for 5 innings he had an all-world sinker. Since then, nearly nothing. If his performance yesterday were a boxing match, it would have been stopped because Pinto couldn't defend himself. Big Rob's stubbornness serves him well, but not yesterday. How can this guy be dominant one day and incompetent the next? Walking a batter in the 9th with a 9 - 0 lead? Things you thought you'd never see. Makes you miss Covey.

Sounds like the decision was made to make Turnbull a long reliever a long time ago. IMHO, it should be changed. Turnbull has been NEARLY DOMINANT in 3 of 4 games. Turnbull was being a team player as he said he understood the Phils' thinking, but that he felt fine. Must accept that the starter position was never there to be won, even though he won it. Here's hoping Walker pitches as well. Will be good to have a proven starter in the pen, cause injuries happen.

[Austinfan]

Allard is a placeholder on the 40, no one will claim him (and we won't care anyway) if he's dropped.
Nelson, Rucker, Pinto are also easily replaced. So 40 status won't have much role in decision making.

Phillips showed an uptick in velo 2 years past TJ this spring, and has pitched well since a rocky 1st start.
Though they probably won't take any Lehigh pitcher seriously until June (9-10 starts under their belt).

Turnbull/Strahm would be short-run fix for any starter missing a couple weeks.
After that, they'd have a good enough read on Lehigh pitchers to know who'd they'd prefer to bring up.

McGarry, Mercado would probably be first pen callups, maybe Ortiz when he comes off IL, but I think they might want to start auditioning kids over marginal vets at this point since it would be a back of the bullpen role. As we've seen with Bellatti, Nelson, etc., these kinds of vets have little upside.

[andyb]

Allard is not a placeholder on the 40. He is there because he has some talent and MLB experience and an option. The reason to use someone on the 40 is to not lose them if they have to be sent down if they have an option. Phillips might stay on the 40 if sent down, but that takes somebody else's space and the Phillies probably don't want to do that unless there is a significant talent difference. And there isn't. All the options until Abel are low ceiling guys that simply are not that good, Phillips included.

So they exhaust the 40-man roster first. Then they hope Abel is ready. If Allard continues to pitch poorly he'll get DFA'd at some point but the main reason he is there now is the Phillies think he is a better bet to contribute to the major league roster at the moment than other options.

Strahm is not going to start BTW. He is simply too valuable in his role to be used for more than 2 innings in a bullpen game.

[Austinfan]

Allard is probably there b/c of a condition of signing. Same way many veteran signings have June opt out clauses.
When we get to June, they won't give a crap about options, losing players, etc.
Either you've proven you can contribute or you're no loss if you're over 25.

[andyb]

Kolby Allard is making $375K in the minors which jumps to a million in the majors. I don't believe he has an opt out and realistically he knew he was going to AAA since he had an option. He went with the Phillies because they were a good team with thin upper minors starting depth. He is there because the Phillies want him. He needs to pitch well enough of course to get promoted (which he hasn't) but both he and Turnbull were brought here with some money because the Phillies thought they were better for 6th and 7th starter options than what they had. Period. You don't spend that money if you think Tyler Phillips is the answer.

You just have this irrational love for older upper minors prospects. Yes Phillips is a fringe prospect whose status has improved as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. But he is not a great prospect. Middle relief is likely his ceiling if he gets more than a cup of coffee. That is kind of what he is since he does not have great swing and miss stuff even if his velocity has ticked up.

[bkox]

Taijuan Walker is 88-89 in his first inning of work. Given the quotes we have gotten this week, I really wonder if he is really holding back on this rehab. That said, the excuses go away when he starts in the majors.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) April 21, 2024

Statcast has been classifying fastballs as splitters because they are so slow

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) April 21, 2024

My guess is Walker’s day is done. Threw only three pitches equal or greater than 90.0 mph
6 IP 6 H 3 ER 3 BB 1 K - 97 pitches https://t.co/06I0qIuva6

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) April 21, 2024

[andyb]

Tough road trip coming up after this easy homestand. 10 games in 10 days against Cincinnati, LA, and San Diego. It is rare to have a West Coast trip with zero off days. Going 5-5 on the trip would probably be a good result.

[bkox]

Cincinnati, LA, and San Diego

At least its Angels and not Dodgers

[andyb]

Yeah, I should have clarified but still a pretty brutal trip. 100 mph of Hunter Greene tomorrow. Probably not the day to get Stubbs a game.

[BaseballCat]

Does someone know Walker’s average fastball speed last year?

[bkox]

Does someone know Walker’s average fastball speed last year?

Baseball Savant has his avg 4 seam fastball in 2022 at 92.8 and sinker at 92.4

4 seamer was 93.7 in 2022 and 94.5 in 2021

[phillychuck]

Fangraphs has 92.6 on the sinker and 93.1 on the 4-seamer. 90 isn't going to get people out...

[BaseballCat]

Thanks hive mind - you always come through! That is a drop in velocity for sure?

[zambonir]

Yeah the idea that we have 5 Cy Youngs has a lot to do with Colorado and the ChiSox right now even if they've been good all year. But it would be nice to steal a series in Cincinnati, and Anaheim as well.

I gotta think that if Walker is coming back the Phillies are actually serious about limiting Turnbull's innings (and exposure) more than they are kowtowing to Walker's contract because it would not be that controversial to let Walker make two more rehab starts and come back at home.

[Austinfan]

That is not a lot of money. That's what it costs to get a veteran pitcher to agree to a "show me" stint in the minors.
They like to gamble on a portfolio of pitchers, especially with the lack of depth in the system, they add pitcher with ML experience but mediocre stuff, pitchers coming off injuries and older prospects who might be "sleepers" for one reason or another. But all are fungible until they stand out.

[gmwannabe]

do you really think it is a good idea to remove Turnbull from the rotation. he has pitched extremely well and is being replaced by an injured pitcher that can't ge to 91 on a fastball? oh well, Maddos never threw that hard anyway. I think this is a mistake to monkey around with something (starting pitching) that is going well. but that is the GM in me.
gm

[andyb]

do you really think it is a good idea to remove Turnbull from the rotation. he has pitched extremely well and is being replaced by an injured pitcher that can't ge to 91 on a fastball? oh well, Maddos never threw that hard anyway. I think this is a mistake to monkey around with something (starting pitching) that is going well. but that is the GM in me.

No it is not a good idea.

[Aquapong]

I wouldn’t worry about Walker’s velo just yet. He didn’t really have a ST. Wheeler’s velo was down a bit early in ST too.

[zambonir]

Right but the fact that he didn't have a spring training is all the more reason to... let him have one. He made two starts (4.2 innings) in Clearwater and could still stay on rehab for another 2-3 starts. I guess if he says he's 100% healthy and feels 100% ready the Phillies are sort of obligated to bring him back up. But they're not obligated to put him in the rotation.