2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[JaxBill]

Not a doctor but wondering if they want to have him back by the return from All Star Break (roughly 5 weeks)

[bkeich]

Not good. Time to get some bad teams starting catcher. Might be the beginning of the end for Stubbs

[JaxBill]

Is Marchan coming off an injury too? It looks like he's had limited AB this year.

[andyb]

Is Marchan coming off an injury too? It looks like he's had limited AB this year.

Back injuries in spring training. Just getting back a few weeks ago. He did have a good year in winter ball though so there is reason to be hopeful that he can help the team tread water for a little while. I guess the big question with JT is whether this is an easily fixable problem. There are a wide range of outcomes here.

[el-pietro]

This is less than ideal. Depending on how long he's out for the trade options are limited.
Elias Diaz from the Rockies is having a good season and is a free agent this winter.
Danny Jansen if the blue Jay's think they are out of the wild card but that seems unlikely.
The alternative is to think longer term, but that's expensive.
Could the As give up Langeliers? Or the Angels O'Hoppe?
Other than those sort of guys it's a lot of back ups (Nido) or guys who are inexplicably still playing (Maldonado), or stick with Stubbs/Marchan

[Patchmk88]

So I actually knew about this on Sunday. I posted it but then took it down as the person it came from said it wasn't public knowledge yet. It sounds like it is a 6 week recovery, so he should be back by the end of July.

[zambonir]

This is basically what Embiid had. I'm sure they will just ride it out over the next 4-5 weeks while also maybe making a minor deal, then decide whether a bigger move is required. Unless something falls into their lap sooner.

In a way this provides more certainty than less. Just not for the next six weeks.

Marsh and Turner coming back should make it easier to just get less from the catcher offensively for a while.

[Jazzhead]

This makes fixing the offensive weaknesses of the outfielders more urgent.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't say it makes it any more urgent at all. But if the team did go into a swoon over the next month maybe they'd attempt to strike early (All-Star break starts July 15) instead of waiting another two weeks.

This might also be a good reason to try the six-man rotation at some point. So long as the pitching continues to be as good as it is Stubbs is still important too. He'll be running the show even if he only plays half the time.

[VoteForKalas]

This makes fixing the offensive weaknesses of the outfielders more urgent.

And getting a better backup C too

This is just more evidence Realmuto needs to be catch less games and we need a better option to support him.

If they do nothing, even after this most recent waving red flag, they are rolling the dice big time.

[andyb]

Not sure if they see how the backups do in the next few weeks when you have a 9-game lead is rolling the dice big time. It would be nice to win 110 games, but we don't have to in order to win the division. The Braves have deeper injury issues than we do.

Marchan is coming off decent seasons in AAA last year and Venezuela in the winter. There is a reasonable case that he could put up a 650 OPS and be just fine defensively. Offense from the catcher spot is not plentiful, especially in the trade market. The average OPS leaguewide at catcher is .678. The bar is really not that high if he and Stubbs play good defense and JT is back in 6 weeks. Kind of wish they did this before London because it was bothering him the last month or so.

[zambonir]

I feel like Stubbs has already acquitted himself well. I get not making too much of intangibles or the fact that he's as much a bullpen coach as a player but that might at least be worth the 0.2 WAR a better back-up catcher gives you. He's 0.3 WAR on BBRef, -0.1 on Fangraphs.

Marchan may also actually be better than most of the back-ups currently in MLB. Just not proven.

What I meant by more certainty not less, is a surgically repaired JT is probably a better bet going into September than one with a chronically sore knee. And if they are forced to play him less that's also good. Paradoxically, he's also a lot more easily replaced than he would have been two years ago, both offensively and defensively.

He must have reaggravated it or newly tore it in London, maybe even at that moment. Obviously he'd played through it the first time.

[andyb]

My point is that they have a 9-game lead. If that is a 2-game lead in a few weeks with no catcher production the team might make a move. But if they still have a 7-game lead in 3 weeks they'll probably survive JT being out just fine. And Z's point is that he'll probably be healthier for the playoffs since this seemed like soreness he might have played through.

[zambonir]

I guess the other good thing will be that JT can actually take on Stubbs' previous role (essentially, holding the iPad, a la a back-up QB). He can still be involved in the game plans and mentoring Marchan and the pitchers.

They are going to be fine in terms of the lost offensive production. They were just fine for almost 30 games without their second-best hitter. I would worry more about a few rough reliever innings or passed balls. But Stubbs has also looked great calling games for Turnbull and Nola (and probably a few others).

It would be nice if Marsh can be better and Bohm can get hot again and Nick continues to improve.

The time to circle on the calendar is July 1. If things go really sour over the next three weeks you might want to try and figure something out. But I seriously doubt that will happen (I mean, it would have to be .333 ball for 10-15 games, not .500).

[andyb]

Maybe the various minor league catcher promotions the last few days (Simoneit to AAA, Nava to AA, Caicuto to High A) were a sign they knew Marchan was not coming back to Lehigh Valley after the London trip. They also designated Marchan as the 27th man which makes sense in light of the pinch running substitution. On a baseball basis Darick Hall would have made sense as a pinch hitter more than a 3rd catcher in a 2-game series where JT had plenty of rest going in.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski apparently said "about a month" though Gelb suggested it could be up two months. Probably depends how much is actually getting cleared out or repaired. Sounds like there was no aggravation, he's just been playing through it.

He had hit .135/.200/.189 since May 25 and was not driving the ball. The balky knee was a factor.

Phillies went 8-5 during that stretch, with three of the losses on the West Coast road trip and one in London. Two of the five were in extras. JT certainly didn't play any less (nine starts of the 12 games).

Phillies expect J.T. Realmuto to miss about a month after knee surgery

Phillies suffer big blow as J.T. Realmuto goes on IL and will have knee surgery

[Austinfan]

They need a long look at Marchan in any case, he's shown improvement the last couple years, injuries have been his big problem But the last couple years of JT's contract, it's obvious he should be limited to 110-120 games, not 130+. I can't see them extending him at this point, at least not for real money, he's going to fall off the cliff by the end of his deal.

They've been stockpiling young catchers the last couple years, but they're all 2-4 years away.

[gmwannabe]

been out all day and just seeing this now. not a good sign. I know it is a long season but the injuries are starting to pile up. I wish the Schwarbarian was hitting.
gm

[zambonir]

I can't see them extending him at this point, at least not for real money, he's going to fall off the cliff by the end of his deal.

When you look at the catching around the league, recognize how much the Phillies value him and consider it's going to be the same pitching staff, I'd say just the opposite. He simply can't be making more than $10 million, on no more than a three-year deal. He'll still be a competent or better 80-100 game catcher, with that number falling each year so it's just a matter of having the other piece, and finding offense from another spot.

[andyb]

A 2-3 year extension absent any career threatening injury for less than his current deal (but maybe a bit more than he'll probably be worth) seems pretty likely. JT is athletic and seems to be the type to have a slow decline. Curious if he would attempt another position besides first base at some point. With his speed and arm he probably could make a decent RF for instance.

More likely he eases into an 80-100 game role for a couple of years until one of the kids wins the position.