2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I agree they're not likely to just pull the plug on Nick, let alone be prepared to pencil him entirely off the roster next season. But getting a decent trade deadline OF still doesn't have to mean that (or only that).

Simply upgrading from Pache gives you a RHB you can play in LF with Marsh (because that isn't Merrifield either, I'd just give his job to Clemens, but that's a whole other issue).

Or if you make a significant upgrade who is either a LHB or good from both sides, he could play RF against some RHP, and Nick could also play LF against LHP.

But also, sure, if Dahl locks down a roster spot great. Almost no chance they do any trades until after the All-Star break, and for a guy like Tucker probably not until July 31.

Does Dombrowski really have a history that is germane in the here and now? I just don't feel like his moves as Phillies boss have been "go big or go home." Marsh was an outlier and not even that big a move (he had cost, but from an area of depth, and Marsh wasn't even a proven player, that was more like a swap of two young guys). He has that history at previous stops but he has not resembled that GM here. Trading for an OF last year or a better relief pitcher than Robertson the year before likely wouldn't have changed the October outcomes and I doubt that's the case this year either. Being a 100-win team makes it more tempting to go big but at the same time, big deal are more helpful for pennant races not the post-season (unless you don't have three starting pitchers).

[Austinfan]

Kinda hard to upgrade over Alvarado, Strahm and Hoffman right now for late innings, and SD is rounding back into form, and Kerkering is a comer.So a bullpen upgrade would be a low cost depth guy.

I doubt they're going to give up on Castellanos with 2 years left, if they don't extend Schwarber, I can see him platooning at DH with a LH hitter his last season - at that point they will need a RF if Crawford isn't ready (should start in AA in 2025, if he finishes in AAA they'll probably pencil him at RF in 2026). They might even look at Bohm in RF if Miller is ready in 2026, he's got the arm and he's not a bad athlete.

[andyb]

They are not moving Bohm to the OF. His sprint speed has already dropped to below average. He is not that good an athlete and they are finally getting somewhat decent defense out of him at 3B. More likely he goes to 1B and Bryce goes to DH in a post-Schwarber team. We'll worry about Miller when we get there but he could easily play anywhere too and as the rookie who is a better athlete would be a better fit in the OF if it came to that.

The upgrade to the OF could easily be a cheaper rental. And if the upgrade is in RF you could still platoon Castellanos with Marsh who really is not hitting RHP this year.

[zambonir]

If Nick doesn't turn it around this year they can't break spring training next year without him already being eased into a lesser role. They can eat the fifth year of his deal. But they're not close to that point yet.

The CF position is also still not set in stone, including the possibility of it being Crawford's future position. Hopefully not because that would mean Rojas wound up as a 4th OF, but can't rule it out. Also can't rule out Crawford not being a big enough corner bat.

The bullpen needs will depend on health, Turnbull (even after he inevitably starts again he's and Sanchez are both relievers in the NLDS, and one of them after that) and Seranthony/Soto. If they feel good about the latter two guys and everyone is healthy they really don't need another piece, and the only open spot is Ruiz's (or Marte's, if he takes it back which seems unlikely for the moment).

[EDmuch]

Bowden's article int he Athletic says that the Phils "are"looking to upgrade their outfield. He adds that they might look to upgrade the bullpen. Bowden's strong use of "are", not "may" or "possibly" suggests that DD may already be on teh prowl looking for someone to upgrade Marsh or Castellanos. That is certainly consistent with rumors about interest in Tucker. I suspect that Crawford may be available but that Painter and Miller are off the table. A lot may depend on what Houstone wants to do.

[zambonir]

I think it's easy to read as much or as little into it as you want. It could just as easily mean they want to upgrade the Pache/Merrifield spot, which could still address both Marsh (giving him a reliable RHB in LF) and Rojas (play Marsh in CF more and the new guy in LF) without Nick even coming into it.

There's also plenty of room between the same group of guys they opted not to acquire last July or sign this past off-season and Tucker (or Robert).

As ever, most of these things aren't even rumors, just opinions. Bowden has never struck me as being that dialed in, even when he was predicting the Phillies would sign Whit he never claimed to have inside info, he just thought it made sense himself. And there is no Tucker "rumor" just Passan noting that Tucker and Arozena would be the biggest swings if the Phillies did pursue an OF.

[BostonRoss]

I would love to see Kyle Tucker as a Phillie. But there's just no way it would happen. The Phillies will not trade two or three top prospects to upgrade Pache/Merrifield/Dahl and make at least two of Marsh, Castellanos, and Rojas part-time players. Moreover, it seems unlikely that the Astros would even want to trade Tucker. They have been increasing payroll and several players signed long term. One bad year is not going to make them tank for 2025.

[xogfog]

Bohm probably would go to DH, Bryce is a much better 1st baseman and I think he likes to stay in the game mentally.

[julio]

The Tucker vibe reminds me more than a little of the Hunter Pence episode. Change at the trade deadline, for the sake of change at the trade deadline, notwithstanding the team's actual performance up to the trade deadline, and with little regard for the longer-term consequences.

[gmwannabe]

Ok Andy, I'll add Kingery and that should get it down.

[BostonRoss]

I thought about that, and it's even the same team (and if Houston traded Tucker, it might even mean more playing time for Jon Singleton, as they've been using Alvarez in the outfield!).

One big difference is that Hunter Pence took playing time from John Mayberry, Ben Francisco, and Domonic Brown. None of them had a pedigree (or contract) like Castellanos. While Brown was still a top prospect, I'm sure the Phillies had no problems taking time away from that group. They would definitely have some concern about taking playing time from Castellanos, Marsh, or Rojas even though Tucker is better than all of them.

The other big difference is that the Astros were tanking in 2011.

As for the longer-term consequences, it turns out there weren't any. Pence was a non-factor in the NLDS, and none of the guys traded for him (or who were obtained when he was traded) did anything much in the majors.

[zambonir]

The mistake was trading Pence away so quickly, for a bad return and mostly to save money/tax. He wound up having some good years. He was literally the new face of the Phillies (cover of Philadelphia mag IIRC) for a few months, which also backlashed.

That '11 team's offense would have been better off if they'd upgraded 3B or played Ibanez less. Or if they'd gotten Beltran instead of Pence (but then who knows if Wheeler would be on the Phillies today, butterfly effect and all). And then the Phillies tried to run it back without any good new players (except Papelbon) and a bad manager, delaying the rebuild by a year or two.

I think the Astros actually are going to have to let Tucker go, but it probably won't be at this deadline. Even with the added payroll they probably can't keep both Bregman and Tucker.

[BostonRoss]

The trade of Pence to the Giants can't be viewed as anything but bad. While keeping him wouldn't have made the Phillies contenders, the return was poor.

I don't see why the Astros would have to let Tucker go. Isn't Bregman a free agent after this season? I also think that the Astros will not give up on 2024 until close to the trade deadline, if at all.

[Austinfan]

Castellanos had an interesting night for him, two walks, then takes a pitch to RF to win the game.
He says he's not trying to be selective, but watching him the last couple weeks, he lies.
He's trying to lay off that low and outside pitch and has been jumping on mistakes over the inside portion of the plate.
And taking the outside pitch to RF is a good sign, too often he tries to pull that pitch and grounds out to SS.

Now whether he can build on this?
He'll never live up to his contract, but .800 OPS and it's tolerable, .700 OPS and he's not even replacement level.

[zambonir]

I think they are going to keep Bregman but not Tucker though. This is the first season the Astros have ever been truly major spenders, and they typically let their big $ free agents go (Springer, Correa, Morton, Cole, Verlander the first time). Some people think they won't keep either of them, though the Hader move suggests they are ready to spend more in a shorter window.

I agree it's very hard to see them as sellers. Even if the GM wants to be.

[zambonir]

Castellanos has already acknowledged that he finally gave in and started trying to be selective.

800 OPS and it's tolerable, .700 OPS and he's not even replacement level.

You could still say the same thing about our 3B, though admittedly he doesn't get the big $ and is not quite yet in decline (and hopefully won't touch .750 either whereas that might be the best-case overall result for Nick this year).

Casty was .788 OPS and 1.5 WAR last year. He was .784 OPS and 0 WAR (in just 60 games) in 2020. It's insane the Phillies paid him based on his 2021 and even more so that he got a fifth year over Schwarber when no other team was hot to sign him. But at the same time, Dombrowski isn't that stupid/blind/loyal. Correctly or not, he liked both Schwarber and Nick for more than just their numbers and that's something that can't be dismissed with this group.

[andyb]

Castellanos has probably had people pushing him to be more selective every single year of his professional career. And it generally does not work for him. Just don't say this is any type of change brought on by the Phillies. It is the weakness in his game. He knows it. He tries not to swing at bad pitches. But his power comes from being aggressive.

We're not going to change Castellanos. We just need to get him back to close to the 780 OPS player he was last year.

[Austinfan]

He's not going to approach .800 unless he's more selective, bat speed doesn't increase as you age, and the league has the book on him, throw low and away breaking stuff and let him chase it and miss or roll it over to short. So either he adjusts, or Dombrowski has a hard decision to make this offseason.

[phillychuck]

Castellanos' performance in April and through most of May at a 600 OPS is a sunk cost. What matters is whether he can approach 800 OPS going forward in June-September and the playoffs. He's been fine of the last two weeks or so.

[bkox]

What matters is whether he can approach 800 OPS going forward in June-September and the playoffs. He's been fine of the last two weeks or so.

We can hope... but the last 365 days doesnt give us much.. Sub .700 OPS over the last 160 games