2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[Callison]

The Clemons Dilemma: He's shown how good he can be - that would be plenty - and the Phils must be eager to keep him. OTOH, if the Phils keep him, his PT will go down and his batting eye will likely suffer.

Gotta make him into an LF. Let the Rojas experiment run its course to the All Star break. We're behind Rojas all the way but if he needs more time to develop at AAA, it wouldn't be the worst thing. Plan B with Clemons replacing Rojas in the lineup and playing LF is way exciting.

[BostonRoss]

I'm thinking that it might make sense to send Rojas down sooner rather than later so that he can be a bigger contributor in the second half. If he hasn't improved by the time Turner returns, it might be a reasonable approach to give hi some time in AAA. That could make Clemens and Marsh the LF and CF, spelled by Pache and Merrifield on occasion against LHP.

[zambonir]

Clemens is not going to play himself into a starting LF job anymore than Sosa is going to Wally Pipp Turner. No need to make him into more than what he already is, an occasional starter and PH. He just needs to have LF in that quiver once Turner is back. More likely than not he will still get optioned temporarily (and play LF in AAA).

Playing Merrifield or Clemens regularly in LF and Marsh regularly in CF just makes the defense that much worse, and without the likely offensive payoff (Merrifield clearly doesn't have it anymore, and Clemens would likely not provide it playing every day).

More "'good problems to have." I still think the ultimate answer is trading Pache and cutting Merrifield, with Clemens and TBD replacing them, but that is probably still two months away. Demoting Rojas in the meantime still an option but I think that is more likely to end his MLB season, not be a 4-6 week reset. Since the team's results still speak for themselves, why change anything (though that's also the reason to figure out how to keep Clemens up).

[andyb]

Let's not go overboard with Clemens. We are talking 29 really good plate appearances. He had a 644 OPS last year which nearly matches his career OPS. He also had a 746 AAA OPS this year in over 100 plate appearances. I suspect he is a bit better than he was last year, but I also would expect him to have something like a 700 major league OPS over 200+ plate appearances.

Clemens is good depth. It is still unclear if he is more than that.

[BostonRoss]

We cannot know what Clemens will become, but I do like the idea of playing the hot hand and giving him as much playing time as is feasible. He's the fifth infielder now and will move down once Turner returns (unless another infielder goes down). I think it does make sense to see if he can play the outfield since none of the other outfielders except Marsh is hitting so well right now that his bat will missed. I recommend giving Clemens some starts in place of Castellanos and Rojas (and Merrifield and Pache), not just Sosa.

[phillychuck]

Regarding the .500 record stuff. It's no wonder the awful White Sox are playing the most teams with +.500 records, and we are playing the least. And, as Allentown mentions, there is a lot of imbalance right now, especially in the NL.

[xogfog]

And, there is no reason to think they can't beat teams above .500 especially with Wheeler, Nola, Suarez...

[VoteForKalas]

As I've said since last season, I'd take Marsh over Clemens, Pache or Merrifield.

Marsh should be the starting LF until we have a better option, offensively and defensively, and the team decides what to do with Rojas.

I understand we need to use Schwarber out there occasionally and find ABs for the bench players, but Marsh posted a .829 OPS last season, is doing well this season and deserves a full shot.

[andyb]

I am definitely a little disappointed in Marsh and it is more that he has not improved much. Last season he had a .397 BABIP and it is down to a more normal .311 this year. His Fangraphs projections are almost exactly the same as his 730 OPS overall stats.

Where I am disappointed is against LHP. Still small sample but he is 4-34 with a .347 OPS. Right now we really should be playing Pache ahead of him against left-handed pitching. The BABIP suggests he was never really the 800+ OPS hitter he was last year. But the splits suggest he also still looks like a platoon bat today. BB and K ratios for him are fine. I think the question is really how much power does he have and can he hit left-handed pitching.

[zambonir]

It's not just that the Phillies are making all those teams have losing records, it's that the best five or six teams in MLB are making a lot of teams have losing records. A .500 team would make the NL playoffs if the season ended today (the Padres).

Marsh certainly is the starting LF and Clemens would not get any starts over him (only starts in LF if Marsh was in CF). But yeah, whether the Phillies don't believe it or he hasn't earned it, he has still not turned into an everyday player. And Pache still has to share those ABs with Merrifield.

Clemens isn't really going to play more because Sosa and Stott are just as hot, and Bohm isn't going to sit against RHP either. Him becoming a LF it merely about future utility, not something he is going to do more than once or twice over the next few weeks (if ever). Sosa/Stott is still a better defensive IF, Marsh/Rojas is still a better defensive OF and Clemens isn't going to start against LHP either.

[dicemen99]

According to PhillyVoice, although the Phillies have played the easiest schedule in MLB so far, their remaining schedule is the 13th hardest in MLB. This is middle tier. It probably speaks to the fact that there are just not that many really good teams in MLB this year - the gulf is wide.

[andyb]

NL has 5 teams over .500 and 9 below. SD is at .500. So only 4 NL teams exist that are over .500 for the Phillies to play. We have missed the Dodgers so far so that has helped. We've missed the Cubs too but I am not sure they'll be over .500 the rest of the way. We actually played a better Braves team early with Strider.

It has been a relatively easy schedule but I doubt that schedule has contributed to more than a couple of extra wins compared to an average schedule.

[phillychuck]

In the AL the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Royals (!), and arguably the Rays are the good teams. We have played none of them, we have 3-game series scheduled vs the Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Guardians, and Royals between now and the end of the year, and more games vs the Braves and Dodgers. lots of good teams coming.

[zambonir]

Bring it on! (I mean, as a fan, too. Circumstance has kept me from getting to many games but the schedule hasn't been motivating either. I'm hoping to see Rangers, Brewers, Padres, Dodgers and Yankees. Possibly Guardians. Can't make it to Camden Yards I don't think.)

Schedule also eases up in September. We don't see the Braves after 9/1 unfortunately (or fortunately).

[xogfog]

Braves blew a 5-2 lead in the 8th and lost game one of their doubleheader 6-5. Now 5.5 games back.

[zambonir]

Wow. I had already counted that one as a Braves win.

[andyb]

Interesting NL discussion here. On the Phillies they imply an outfield trade might be needed.

Which is the NL's team to beat: the Phillies, Dodgers or Braves?

[andyb]

San Diego now over .500 so they can't say we haven't played a team over 500 any more since March!

[zambonir]

Murphy rounds up some of the OF and relief options here. Mostly the mid-priced rental types, not the top closers or higher-end position players (like Jazz or Robert). Conforto, Canha, Pham for instance.

Ten potential Phillies (rental) trade targets to monitor before the MLB deadline

[BostonRoss]

Going into today, the weighted average winning percentage of the Phillies opponents is .429. The average for these opponents against the rest of the league (meaning excluding their games against the Phils) is .440. They're still bad even when they aren't playing the Phillies.

Besides the Braves and Padres, the only Phillies opponent that has a winning record against the rest of the league is the Giants. (Of course, the Phillies are 7-0 against the Padres and Giants.)