2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[bkox]

wow.. .583 career winning percentage. 54 games over .500. 2 NCLS and 1 WS appearance and we are winning games in spite of Thompson.

[phillychuck]

Lineup order is basically irrelevant in run scoring. This has been shown again and again in Sabermetrics research. Get a new slant...

[Austinfan]

It's biggest impact is probably player psychology and the number of PAs over a season.

[rpmcmurphy]

Lineup order is basically irrelevant in run scoring. This has been shown again and again in Sabermetrics research. Get a new slant

Not true, actually.

Should Good Hitters Lead Off? FanGraphs Investigates

Basically, most sabermetric research says that higher OBP players should hit at or near the top of the order. Schwarber is currently 5th or 6th in OBP in the regular lineup. Last year he was 3rd. In 2022 he was 6th. Thanks for your suggestion, PC, but I think I’ll keep my “slant”.

As far as RT’s prowess as a manager is concerned, he inherited a good team. Judging his true skill level will take several more seasons, at least. I’m not saying he’s terrible, but I disagree (strongly) with his lineup construction, and I think that sticking with it will cost the Phillies some games. I think that Schwarber’s power would produce more runs if he was in the middle of the lineup. That’s just my opinion. No need for the negativity. Swimming against the current around here is a little tough.

[dicemen99]

Turner
Stott
Harper
Bohm
Schwarber
JT
Nick
Marsh
Rojas/Pache

Have we ever seen this lineup?

[Austinfan]

Problem is Schwarber hits better leading off, JT looks better in the #2 spot than further down the lineup (I think b/c he's more willing to take pitches at the top of the lineup). Bohm looks like a good fit for #4 b/c he's comfortable in pressure (men in scoring position) situations. Stott could probably hit anywhere, he's a pure hitter.

[zambonir]

He inherited a good team that never won. I don't think the sample is too small at this point, even if it's premature to say that he is the best Phillies manager of all-time just because he's already has the highest WP of all-time (behind only two partial-season guys in 1890). He's a good manager. Another one would not be better. And probably half of them would still bat Schwarber lead-off.

And yeah, Schwarber is not getting on base a his usual pace so far, but he was third on the team in OBP last year (behind Marsh who was not a full-time player, and Harper who is never going to lead-off) and has been a good OBP player and leadoff hitter his whole career. I disagree (strongly) with the idea that a manager should make decisions based on just a month or six weeks.

And clearly one of Thomson's strengths as a manager is sticking with what works and making his players feel comfortable with roles and routines. There's no sabermetric for that, admittedly, but tinkering with the line-up might add one win in tactical advantage while costing them one win in chemistry disruption.

They tried Turner leading off last year and it was a bust, though that was mostly because Turner was a bust (at the time). Stott was also a leadoff bust, since he was (and still is) a work in progress.

[Callison]

Tied once again with the '93 team winning %. Can they break through the glass ceiling?

With Turner Schwarber and JT on the DL, you'd think they'd be in real trouble, but players that have been treading water all season are producing. I'm really liking the way Sosa has started to hit. Shows the obvious value of playing everyday - your eye gets sharper. Pache has had a good game or two and Rojas is comfortably above Mendoza.

There have been a lot of variations in the lineup lately. Castellanos at #4 has been OK, in spite of board fears that Harper would never see a strike with Casty behind him. Maybe soon Stott will lead off and Schwarber will bat 4th - more classical arrangement. It LOOKS like that's the way things ought to be. Big Rob has totally resisted it, He has his own way of doing things and don't waste your time advising him. One managerial habit he has is to put players into situations where he THINKS they ought to excel. Like Merrifield (.197) at leadoff yesterday. Merrifield turned in a ofer. Big Rob is likely to double down on the decision, though. Reminds me of all the opportunities he handed Cave last season and continued to hand him even though he rarely delivered anything.

Day baseball works for me. GO PHILS!

[phillychuck]

Not true, actually.

Basically irrelevant. Not entirely irrelevant. With no pitcher in the lineup, the "delta" from the best to the worst lineups is very small. Probably more important to keep the players happy in their roles.

[zambonir]

I think we all agree that higher OBP players should hit higher. The sabermetric dismissiveness of line-ups has more to do with protection and the perception of what kind of hitters hit where and why (other than maximizing the ABs of your best - not just your highest OBP - hitters).

The DH, and the way middle infielders and many (if not all) CFs hit these days has also made the line-ups feel different.

But for me the main thing is still, Schwarber is a high OBP player (and experienced leadoff hitter). Just because he's lower right now and Stott is higher doesn't change that, even if it's possible that the younger Stott will surpass him going forward.

Thomson likes things a certain way, but that is more his strength than his weakness. Bad managers are overly reactive. You could see it the past few games with him PHing Clemens for Sosa twice. It paid off once and it didn't the other time but (and this was in Gelb's story today) the Phillies are almost always going to go by the book with platoon match-ups, and that was part of Clemens' preparation and routine in both games too. (He was also told Schwarber would hit first if someone was on base and he would if not.)

[dicemen99]

You make a great point here - as much as we fans love to tinker with the lineup.

Great managers - in all walks of life, not just baseball - allow their charges to be prepared for what is coming as best they can. Whether what's coming is routine and comfortable, or if it is something that takes them out of their comfort zone is not really relevant - what is relevant is preparation gives them the best chance at success. Overreaction by managers impedes this.

That seems to be a recurring theme with Thomson and it serves the Phillies well IMO.

[BostonRoss]

I feel that as fans we focus on the aspects of the manager's job that we can observe, like who plays in which games, batting orders, pitching changes, and in-game substitutions. That presents two problems in evaluating the manager's performance. First, we only see the outcomes of the decisions that were actually made. When they turn out badly, we cannot know whether a different decision would have been better. For example, "he should have removed the pitcher" may look bad when the pitcher gives up hits/runs, but we don't know that a different pitcher would have done any better (or worse0. Second, strategic decisions are not the main determinant of how well a manager is doing his job. The main job of a manager is to get the most out of the players he has. This involves psychological and even medical decisions to make sure a player is succeeding as much as possible over the entire year.

I can't observe it, but I have no reason to think that a different manager would get any more out of the Phillies than Thomson has. He certainly got more out of the team he inherited than Girardi had.

[zambonir]

We also know less than ever about what goes into the manager's inning-by-inning and day-to-day decisions. They're looking at tunneling charts and pitch movement while we're only looking at pitch count and velocity in terms of when to pull a starter; ditto those things in addition to lefty/righty and SSS career match-ups when they make relief pitching decisions.

Another thing that came out of last night's game - when Harper had to be pulled from the line-up Thomson resisted moving Clemens to 3B since he'd already prepared to play 2B. Not sure it would have been that important (maybe Clemens is slightly better at 3B and Whit is slightly better at 2B), but still a steady hand.

Right now, while we can wonder if this run is for real or built to last, it certainly validates Dombrowski's decision to "run it back," and it would be hard to want to change a single thing about the team, not even the back-up catcher or back-up OF, while it's going so good. The fact that Pache and Clemens and Sosa are all guys who have been on the team for a while (Sosa the longest obviously) is obviously valued in the clubhouse and while I'm loathe to say it, Whit Merrifield may be delivering on that mythical, previously failed David Bell/Josh Harrison "great clubhouse guy" thing.

Or maybe it's just a good clubhouse because when the shadow GM is happy everyone is happy.

[Austinfan]

Well, I'd like to see Sosa take some PA from Merrifield, right now he's the better player.

[donaldorc]

Well, I'd like to see Sosa take some PA from Merrifield, right now he's the better player.

Agreed.

[andyb]

And if we are going to play Merrifield in the outfield against a LHP is Pache better especially when you consider the defense. I kind of think Pache should play against most left-handed pitching if he is going to be on the team.

[zambonir]

Right now with no Turner and Stott not always facing LHP there's enough playing time for Sosa, Merrifield and Clemens. And Whit was just on an eight-game .357 BA tear before this road trip.

Agree about Pache too but Whit also only played LF three times in his last 10 (and one those was after PHing). My guess is they move Pache and keep Clemens after Turner comes back.

In the end I hope Sosa and Merrifield both end up about equal. Otherwise I do hope the $8 million doesn't stop them from repeating the Josh Harrison path (except this time with an actually trade deadline upgrade).

[andyb]

I don't want Merrifield to fail. It is just a sub-200 average and sub-600 OPS with little power. He does not have the arm one wants at 3B or in the outfield. Right now I'd move on from him and keep Clemens if it came to that. Clemens may not have much range, but he can make that 3B throw better than Merrifield.

I am not really arguing to play Pache much more. He just has not merited being buried on the bench as much as he is so far.

[zambonir]

Agreed, but they kind of buried Pache on purpose, not wanting to lose him, in addition to also favoring Merrifield. The paradox with Merrifield was always that they thought he'd be valuable if there was an injury, but playing him more also exposes him (or wears him out).

If Turner hadn't gotten hurt they probably would have started to think about moving on from Pache around now; Rojas clearly isn't going back to AAA. They are obviously more than a couple of months from actually moving on from Merrifield, if ever (even the dirt-cheap Josh Harrison hung around until July 31, though his playing time shrank).

I would have been fine with more Pache in RF too. Wonder if they will ever give Kody a look at either corner OF spot. If not he probably just goes back down when Turner returns.

[allentown]

Good to see you coming around on Merrifield. He was a very bad signing.